A Ukrainian official this week was pushing for a stronger commitment from NATO during the annual GLOBSEC forum in Bratislava, Slovakia. Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European integration, wants NATO to give Kyiv a road map toward membership at the upcoming summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, this July.
“Vilnius should give a clear signal that politically, Ukraine is invited to join NATO,” Stefanishyna told POLITICO on the sidelines of the conference. “We need a unified commitment of all member states.”
Ukraine was first promised it would eventually become a NATO member in 2008 despite warnings from the US ambassador to Russia at the time that Ukrainian entry into the alliance was the “brightest of all red lines” for Moscow. But Kyiv has never been given a timeline on when it can actually join the alliance.
There is an understanding among NATO members that Ukraine can’t join the alliance while it’s actively engaged in a war with Russia. At the Vilnius summit, the alliance is expected to announce new forms of support with a focus on making Ukraine’s military more interoperable with NATO, but such commitments aren’t good enough for Kyiv.
Stefanishyna said that being stuck “in the same place we are right now” with respect to NATO membership would be “totally unacceptable for Ukrainians.” Some European officials who also attended the GLOBSEC summit seem to agree.
“What we have to push in Vilnius is that there has to be a clear understanding [of] what are the next steps for Ukraine,” said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur.
Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský told POLITICO that he has a “wish list” for the NATO summit, which includes Sweden joining the alliance and Ukraine being “invited.” But he acknowledged that the issue is a “complicated matter” as there are 31 NATO members that need to agree.
NATO foreign ministers are meeting in Oslo, Norway, on Wednesday and Thursday, where they’re expected to debate the issue of Ukraine’s future with the alliance. Whatever the NATO countries decide, any new support for Kyiv will likely prolong the war as one of Russia’s main motives for invading Ukraine was its alignment with NATO, and its primary demand during short-lived negotiations in the early days of the war was Ukrainian neutrality.
Kiev regime can dictate nothing. Zelensky is playing a role which American screenwriters created for him.
First Ukrainian president who announced about his intention to join NATO, was Yushchenko. He did it in 2005, one month after Orange Revolution (color revolution organized by US) which brought him to power. By pushing Ukraine into NATO, US leadership is trying to unite all NATO members under the flag of the war against Russia.
It is hard to say who has a gun to Zelensky’s temple. It is more likely to be the hard-liners in Ukraine, not the US.
This is a fine example of how Putin is fighting and losing the war he went to war to avoid. Two years ago NATO was dying. The West Europeans were pushing detente, questioning the need for NATO and looking to reduce their defense budgets. The world tacitly accepted the Russian annexation of Crimea. There was no way Ukraine could join NATO as long as Russia held Crimea.
Today, Russia is fighting a forever war on its border that it can’t win. NATO is revitalized and expanding. All the European neutrals are uniting with NATO against Russia or applying to join NATO. NATO defense budgets are expanding. Ukraine is a NATO protectorate.
The fear of Russian revanchism by the Baltic states and Poland is now shared by every European government and NATO will not be going away any time soon.
Putin’s war was a terrible miscalculation. Russia would be better off if Putin had not invaded Ukraine. The sooner Russia withdraws from Ukraine, the better it will be for the Russian people as well as the Ukrainians and the rest of the world.
Old news and the world is moving on … Russia’s mistake was thinking that they would be ever accepted by the west. They didn’t understand that the USUK completely controlled the EU through NATO.
Russia has completely given up on the west. They will get what they need out of Ukraine and make it neutral to them. Afterwards, they will take part in the new world of trading across the world island.
Russia’s mistake was thinking that they would be ever accepted by the west.
And the west’s mistake was not accepting Russia.
The pervasive influence of perpetually Russia hating Neocons and Neolibs is what prevented the West from accepting Russia.
In other words, The West opted for Satanism against Christianity.
If Russia integrates in EU, it would be impossible for American oligarchy to keep Europe under control. EU elites decided to remain under American yoke. Now the ordinary citizens of EU are paying for this decision not only by deterioration of their living standards but also by de-Christianization and by Ukrainization of their countries.
I suspect that when there’s a moment to pause, this war will have turned out to be the end of NATO.
The Russian military threat proved to be a paper tiger, AND the assorted interest regimes were fully capable of responding as they felt like (which is all that would have been required if Ukraine had been a NATO member and invoked Article 5) without Jens Stoltenberg to harangue them about it. NATO was about as essential as a teat on a bull.
What proved to be a paper tiger was the US sanction regime.
Agreed. This latest is straight out of the brand new DOD Psy Ops Dept. NATO is virtually kaput, nothing left to fight with excepts nukes and bluff.
Which is why the Russians have all the night vision equipment and all the ammunition that their large trade surpluses can buy?
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-swings-29-bln-first-quarter-budget-deficit-2023-04-07/
Short term sacrifices will yield long term rewards – like a Multipolar World free of Yankee aggression and self dealing…
When Russia wins we ALL win!
In a multipolar world there will be far more wars as the different ‘poles’ vie for dominance over the different territories – it will most certainly not be free of Yankee, Russian, or Chinese aggression – that is just how a multipolar world works – we now because we have tried it.
Or did you think that a multipolar world would be one without the US?
I believe our present power structure will self exclude until the people rise up and tear it down.
US sanction regime is a very much efficient tool in destroying American Empire.
Good point.
Russia doesn’t have a bad military. They are losing a bad war. Russia is hardly a paper tiger and the Europeans are alarmed about Putin’s pan-Russian revanchism which did not end with Crimea and will not end in Ukraine. Russia supports and encourages five secessionist “states” on foreign territory and is understandably seen as a threat by the Baltic states, Moldova, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia and Azerbaijan and lately in Western Europe.
Even if Ukraine fatigue causes the US to reduce support for Kyiv by or before the 2024 election, European support for Ukraine is strengthening. It could be that Trump’s vision of Europeans taking more responsibility for their own security may come to pass.
I agree that when the war ends it will probably end through Chinese diplomatic initiatives with the US sidelined and Russia defeated .
As for Ukraine, they will eventually win, even if their army is defeated by Russia and they have to resort to guerrilla tactics. There is no scenario under which Russia can pacify any part of Ukraine except possibly Crimea. The Ukrainians would resist a Russian occupation for generations, much like the Irish did with the British.
Bottom line,is that Putin’s blunder convinced European countries that they need a collective security alliance against Russian revanchism.
You must get your news from CIA propaganda outfits like CNN and NBC. Russia is clearly winning.
I suggest reading real news about Ukraine at places like.
https://sonar21.com/
https://www.moonofalabama.org/
I pay more attention to the calendar and the map than propaganda from Washington, Kyiv or the Kremlin. Fifteen months in the Ukrainians are still fighting.
That means the Russians lost. In an asymmetric war if the invader doesn’t win quick, the invader has lost.
Russia is fighting a war and winning. It doesn’t need to follow your odd ideas about how wars are won. Destroying the Ukrainian army and moving forth is winning.
The US destroyed the North Vietnamese Army and the Viet Cong and won every battle but lost the war. The total North Vietnamese and VC troop strength was less than 700,000 but the US and ARVN killed more than a million combatants. It is that hearts and minds thing. The fallen kept getting replaced by motivated fighters while the ARVN ran away.
Same thing in Afghanistan for the US and USSR both. It is asymmetric war.
Watch and learn. The Russians can’t pacify Ukraine. Eventually they will have to leave.
Another propaganda myth. The United States lost lots of battles.
https://www.g2mil.com/lost_vietnam.htm
But Russia is not trying to colonize a nation on the other side of the globe. Its fighting to secure its homeland.
Thank you for the link. Your work is very impressive and enlightening. You noted that most of the overrun bases were eventually retaken. I wholeheartedly agree with your point at the end of the video – the war was lost from the start because the indigenous communists had won the hearts and minds of the Vietnamese people who were united in their opposition to foreign invaders or comprador Vietnamese governments. Like the Vietnamese, the Ukrainians are united in their opposition to Russian imperialism and for the same reasons the US had no chance in Vietnam or Afghanistan, the Russians have no chance of winning in Ukraine.
“Ukrainians are united in their opposition to Russian imperialism” – even west Ukrainians are not united, many of them migrated to Russia. East Ukrainians are always voted for the candidates with pro-Russian rhetoric, that’s why “pro-Russian” president Yanukovich was elected in 2010 and that’s why the people in Donbass, who from 2014 to 2022 were under the occupation of Kiev pro-American regime, were deprived of their right to vote. Also, that was one of the reasons why Kiev regime and its NATO friends sabotaged Mink Agreements. If Ukraine would be reunited with Donbass, in any democratic elections a pro-Russian candidate could win again. In 2010 over 90% of Donbass people voted for Yanukovich. In Crimea he got less. So one may talk about resistance to “Russian imperialism” only in central and western oblasts of Ukraine but not in southern and eastern which at the moment are under NATO occupation.
After Russia loses the war there should be a 10 to 15 year cooling off period for reconstruction, reconciliation, and resettlement of refugees followed by UN supervised referendums in Donestk, Luhansk and Crimea. Let’s see what happens after Russia withdraws.
Oh… you must mean like in the American Civil War, lol.
The Confederacy was initially strong, but we all know how THAT “unpleasantness” turned out.
The civil war was that hearts and minds thing again. The slaves wanted to be free. They demanded guns to fight their masters. Hundreds of thousands joined the Union Army and millions sabotaged production on the plantations and ruined the Southern economy before Sherman’s march to the sea. The Confederacy never had a chance once th slaves joined the fight.
To the extent that there’s a parallel with the American Civil War, Russia resembles the Confederacy in that it’s fighting against forces with a crap ton more industrial capacity than itself.
Emphasis on the “crap”.
Yep, plus he just lost his biggest Natural Gas customer which was his main source of income and his foreign arm sales will probably never recover.
What will never recover is their former “best customer” being price gouged by their best friend, hugger mugger Uncle Sam.
EU is going green the gas thing is temporary
That’s right, the money stays within the West and not in Putin’s pocket.
Yeah, waaay West across the Atlantic. And as our friends freeze from the low thermostats they can take warmth in knowing for every dollar they save from Putin’s clutches they lose three more. And the Green Party can change it’s name to the Browns when they start burning the dirty expensive LGN from the USA.
“as our friends freeze from the low thermostats they can take warmth in knowing for every dollar they save from Putin’s clutches they lose three more.”
That’s some pretty strange math there, given that the price of LNG in Germany right now is about half what it was in January of 2022.
Could be because Russia still sells LNG to Europe. What is certain is Europe will feel the pinch when their sanctions and the consequences of the Nordstream sabotage comes home to roost.
They felt the pinch.
And then they started finding new sources for their energy needs.
Probably more expensive sources in general, which is one reason this war is a turkey of a deal for them.
But neither the US nor the EU are any closer to complete collapse than Russia is. Maybe not even as close.
But can either the US or EU endure the hardships brought on by their sanctions?.. The Russians can and then some.
At the moment, the differential in GDP and industrial capacities means that any given unit of wealth (dollar, ruble, whatever) redistributed from productivity to warfare hurts the average Russian several times as hard as it hurts the average American, German, etc.
And the average Russian is no more specially magically resistant to the effects of hardship than the average American, German, etc.
Could there be a change in conditions? Sure. But it would have to be a big one for the western advantage versus the Russian disadvantage to flip.
Could there be a change in conditions? Sure.
There sure is a change occurring, the West committing incremental suicide…
Faster please!
“Two years ago NATO was dying.”
From December of 2021:
“Ukraine says it is planning ten military exercises for next year with the participation of thousands or foreign troops, in yet another move that raises the risk of a military confrontation with Russia.”
https://www.presstv.ir/Deta…
I guess NATO wasn’t going to be involved? And at what point was Putin supposed to believe this belligerence was going to stop? This year? Next year?
Worse than a crime, a blunder.
Do you see anyo one in NATO anxious to get into the fight to defend Ukraine? Now only one question remains: how much punishment can the Ukrainiians take before they revolt against their Maidan government?
The Ukrainians can take as much punishment as the Vietnamese, the Afghans or the Algerians. Their motivation is high. In the end Ukraine will win.
How do you define “winning?”
“How do you define ‘winning?'”
Point one of China’s peace plan.
It was Chinese PR action, nothing more. Putin played along to help his Chinese friend Xi. China is a great peace maker, no doubt about that, but this war in Ukraine is not only beyond Chinese peace dealing capacity, but also the eventual peace deal would be not good for China. At the moment, US is overstretched and that is good.
According to the UN, the “sovereignty of all countries” (from Point 1 of China’s peace plan) would require the Russians to give back Luhansk, Donetsk (slim chance) and Crimea (no chance at all) to Ukraine.
What China means by that clause may be a different story. Since actually “respecting the sovereignty of all countries” would require China to end its occupation of Tibet and quit pretending it owns Taiwan, it presumably means something other than the plain language.
As far as I know, no UN member ever recognized Tibet as a sovereign state. And very few recognize Taiwan as a state.
Tibet and Taiwan were part of imperial China for centuries. I see no evidence of a grass roots movement among the common people of Tibet for secession. It appears that they are happy with the end of serfdom, rising income, modernization and infrastructure and educational benefits they receive from integration with China. So who the hell are you to question someone else’s right to be governed as they choose? Did the PLA conquer Tibet or liberate it? That is a questions that can only be answered by Tibetans, not us bozos in the peanut gallery 10.000 miles away.
Taiwan was part of imperial China except for 50 years while it was occupied by Japan. PRC and ROC always agreed that there is only one China. I think the Chinese have wisely avoided taking Taiwan by force because PRC would become an occupying power fighting a tenacious resistance movement. They know better.
The UN dates from 1945. The concept of national sovereignty dates from 1648.
I don’t question anyone’s right to be governed as they choose. Those who invade, conquer, occupy, and annex for the purpose of ruling don’t RECOGNIZE anyone’s right to be governed as they choose.
Yes, Taiwan was annexed by a long-gone Chinese regime from 1683-1895. Before that it was Dutch. Then it was Japanese. Then it was independent. It is not and never has been part of the People’s Republic of China.
You are too smart to be obtuse. Sometimes invasions can be liberating. E.g., D-Day, the Indian invasion of East Pakistan in 1971, Sherman’s invasion of the Confederacy, and, arguably, the PLA liberation of Tibet – which is annually commemorated as the day the serfs were liberated. I will defer to the Tibetan serfs and their progeny on Tibet’s history, system of government and its future.
A Ukrainian peace agreement could be something like Russian withdrawal. Ukrainian administration of Donbas for a 10 to 15 year period of reconstruction, reconciliation and refugee resettlement with a UN peacekeeping authority to guarantee the rights of ethnic minorities and the political rights of secessionists to engage in political activity. After a 10 to 15 year cooling off period there would be a UN supervised referendum on final status. Following the referendum the peace keeping mission would continue another 10 years to insure the constitutional rights of the ethnic and political minorities.
There could be a similar arrangement for Crimea with the question of whether the interim administrative authority would be Ukraine, Russia or the UN to be determined at negotiations.
China’s peace proposal is about settling the war inUkraine. It has nothing to do with Tibet, Taiwan, Palestine, Western Sahara, Myanmar or anywhere else.
“China’s peace proposal is about settling the war inUkraine. It has nothing to do with Tibet, Taiwan, Palestine, Western Sahara, Myanmar or anywhere else.”
Not according to the Chinese peace proposal. It calls for respecting the sovereignty of “all countries.”
And the Kremlin is about as likely to agree to the ideas you lay out as you are to plant the flag of the Republic of Skywalker on the moon after traveling there by squatting and farting REAL HARD.
😂
And France would never agree to Algerian independence. Eventually the oligarch or the people of Russia will demand an end to the war. Russia can withdraw. The Ukrainians cannot. And the Ukrainians will not quit. Its that hearts and minds thing.
As for Tibet, nobody, including the Tibetans, recognizes Tibet as a separate country except for you and the phony government in exile.
Those who had energy and wish for revolting, they ran away from Ukraine in all directions. Others are making money; NATO is generous. Many of those who can’t benefit from the situation, are brainwashed to the point of idiotism. Also we should agree that the terror machine organized by NATO specialists is working good. They will carry on until complete military defeat.
They wont. Anglo-American imperial filth is very hard wash off. Germany and Japan have been occupied since WWII and they still can’t get rid of imperial occupation.
It is sooo obvious that Ukraine is desperate. Joining NATO, they hope, will provide fresh NATO troops. Unfortunately even assuming NATO enters the war, it will not be long before NATO falls apart because of opposing views on fighting for Ukraine. It is one thing for Ukrainians to “fight for their country.” Another entirely for France, for example, or Spain or Denmark to do so. Russia is not seeking to “conquor” Ukraine, it is only asking for Ukraine to remain neutral and not join a hostile military block.
It is hard to get homeowners insurance while you house is actually on fire. Russia is for sure looking to grab plenty of Ukrainian territory.. Statements from leadership as to how Ukraine isn’t a real country don’t bolster your case.
If Russia is looking to grab plenty of Ukrainian land, then how come Putin didn’t annex the Donbass region in 2014 after the Maidan coup when the people of the Donbass were begging him to annex them. Putin could have done it much more easily then than now.
Sometimes Putin is too optimistic. He underestimated the craziness of The West.
Now the blood is spilt and Donbass is Russian forever.
We will see about the “forever”; but I agree it will be up to Russia and inhabitants of Donbas to decide. For now, the inhabitants of Donbas left Ukraine and took their land with them. Now Ukraine is crying. Too late.
They have annexed them now, if I am not mistaken
No one knows the future. Russia may offer a referendum for these areas to declare independence. Time will tell.
Only because the U.S./NATO would not agree to neutrality for Ukraine, and Ukraine’s Kiev government upped the shelling of the people in the Donbass prior to Putin’s SMO.
John, you are not mistaken. The people of Donbas did what Poroshenko asked: they left Ukraine for Russia. Of course they took their property and land with them. What else could they do? Maybe at some future date they will ask Russia for their independence and Russia will agree. Time will tell. Meantime the Maidan government and their snipers and death squads can shove it. That is the reality. And if Maidan-Ukraine put all their hope and faith in the American fascists, they got their reward.
And if they wanted land populated by Russians, they could have taken it before granting Ukraine independence in 1991. In hindsight, they should have done so, but they considered Ukraine a brother nation, and still do.
“they considered Ukraine a brother nation, and still do.”
That is why Russia is losing in Ukraine. Russian chauvinists like Putin don’t understand that Ukraine is a separate nation. They don’t understand what they are fighting. Russian chauvinists continually underestimate the resistance of Ukrainians to Russian domination.
They did so twice. Twice Putin said no.
Probably you are right about what does concern the future, but what concerns the past, there were Minsk Agreements which gave Ukraine opportunity to have all those four oblasts in Ukraine. Those agreements were sabotaged by Ukrainians and by their NATO sponsors.
Not “grab”, John… liberate.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5df0dbb08a61932e9279f4e5fa48e1d4f344a23642b76b1f9e82a4a4e50a3232.jpg
Sigh, Thomas.
Are you insinuating that the ethnic Russians of Eastern Ukraine were content with the status quo?
I equate the situation with the Palestinian/Zionazi conflict, which is perhaps why I feel strongly about it. I’m sure the Palestinians would much appreciate some assistance from the Arab world…ANYBODY in the Arab world. But you know, those non-existent Zionazi nukes and all…
Are you insinuating that people automatically have certain opinions because of their ethnicity?
No , Thomas, I’m insinuating that people were being abused because of their ethnicity.
… and apparently that you can read their minds and know what they thought about it, who they blamed for it, and what they wanted to see done about it.
Well, Thomas, if you believe that the Russian ethnics of eastern Ukraine actually enjoyed their rights being systematically stripped away, then have at it.
I have no idea whether any particular “Russian ethnic” in eastern Ukraine preferred having his or her rights systematically stripped away by Kyiv rather than Moscow or vice versa.
Certainly taking territory is intended to “influence” Ukraine to declare neutrality and renounce to joining NATO. It is also intended to help Ukraine in its ethnic cleansing efforts by removing the pro-NATO populations. It is only normal that if they move to Russia they should take their land and property with them.
It’s not Ukraine. Ukraine doesn’t exist as a sovereign state since 2014. Pentagon filth want to permanently occupy this territory.
Um yeah, the thing about that though, is that is going to be negotiated away in the final settlement. We have to let Russia salvage a bit of their dignity. Plus NATO got Finland and Sweden so plenty for now.
Yes, wonderful. Great idea to add to the reasons that Russia invaded in the first place. More self-fulfilling prophecy. See, Russia bad.
“Ukraine was first promised it would eventually become a NATO member in 2008”
False. President Bush announced that it should be allowed into NATO. Russia objected so Germany, France and other NATO nations quietly blocked efforts.
Well, THAT will certainly cause Mr. Putin to be more likely to negotiate.
I can’t blame Ukraine for wanting to join NATO.
For as soon as they do – they will be virtually guaranteed to never be attacked by Russia (or anyone else) outside of NATO again.
Though, I wonder how NATO would react if Ukraine was part of NATO.
And Kiev started killing it’s own people again (by the thousands)…like it did in the Donbas between 2014 and 2022?
Given that the conflict in the Donbas was actually a Russian infiltration NATO would likely have helped the Ukrainians stop the Russian interference.
Complete nonsense, it was a US ethnic cleansing campaign to ensure the US coup imposed Rada could stay in power. Obama was using ethnic cleansing and genocide as a means to subvert democracy and ensure his Nazi regime stayed in power.
You have exactly no proof of that, while I have the admission of one of the main Russian agents executing the actual interference.
Guess who would win this case in court.
US/NATO was again targeting civilians in Belgorod region……they were doing what throughout history western armies have done when defeated, murder as many civilians as they can.
That roadmap would be a death sentence for Ukraine. Russia went to war to stop NATO, and it is winning, so NATO pushing onward will only draw down worse onto Ukraine.
Yeah but they don’t care about Ukraine or any other occupied country in Europe. They want the land and natural resources but not the people. The native population in Europe is expendable and will be used as cannon meat against Russia.
And the Europeans will go meekly to their slaughter, just how dumb are they?
Plenty of dumb people who swallow imperial propaganda, unfortunately. The TV simply doesn’t tell them they are scheduled for extermination.
didn’t Russia say very loudly that they would not tolerate any NATO in Ukraine, and that was one of the reasons for their attack on Ukraine ?
another of their reasons was to eliminate all of the bio-weapons labs that uncle sam was operating in the Ukraine. what
You are right but there was a third reason: the sharp escalation of Ukrainian artillery attacks against Donetsk starting from the beginning of February 2022. It created hundreds of thousands of refugees and a real humanitarian catastrophe.
How are they planning to do that? North American Terrorist Occupation cowards don’t want to find themselves in a middle of a war with Russia. They just want to hide behind Ukraine and European vassals.