On Thursday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the military alliance must be prepared to support Ukraine for the “long haul.”
“We just have to be prepared for the long haul,” Stoltenberg said. “Because what we see is that this war has now become a war of attrition.”
Over three months into the war, the military situation is not looking good for Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday that Russia and the Donbas separatists control about 20% of Ukraine’s territory, including the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow took in 2014.
Zelensky also said this week that between 60 and 100 Ukrainian soldiers are dying each day. Stoltenberg said that Ukrainians are “paying a high price for defending their own country on the battlefield, but also we see that Russia is taking high casualties.”
Stoltenberg’s comments came after a meeting with President Biden. Both the NATO chief and Biden have reiterated this week that they don’t seek direct war with Russia, but Western military aid and other support for Ukraine continues to escalate, which risks provoking Moscow.
Neither Stoltenberg nor Biden have shown interest in pushing for a negotiated solution to end the fighting and have made clear that they believe arming Ukraine will give them more leverage in potential talks.
“Most wars — also, most likely this war — will at some stage end at the negotiating table, but what we know is that what happens around the negotiating table is very closely linked to the situation on the ground, on the battlefield,” Stoltenberg said.
The US announced Wednesday a new $700 million weapons package for Ukraine, including High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS, which are capable of striking targets up to 50 miles away.
So essentially US is doing the frog-in-boiling-water-thing: just increase the heat, up, up, up until kaplowy? (Assuming frogs explode when boiled.)
It will not be long now. Russia is killing over 100 Ukrainian troops a day and now controls 20% of Ukraine according to the clown Zelensky.
All of the weapons promised to Ukraine will fall into Russian hands and thousands more Ukrainian military and NATO mercenaries will die or be taken prisoner.
Its more likely to be a short haul.
Contest of wills phase, neither side can really advance without taking casualties. Kind of a stalemate, but the Ukrainian people know they are war, what do the Russian people know?
Apparently, de-nazification of the ukraine is not enough and Russia knew this already when the ultimatum was issued at the end of 2021. Phase 3 will mainly be about de-nazifying NATO.
That is certainly most to be wished; but, in order to, NATO needs to be routed either on the battlefield or economically. Without doubt, in the battlefield eventuality the Washington Nazis in the purity of their selfish simplicity and secure in their secret hardened and provisioned underground bunker will unleash doomsday on us all. So the endgame calculus has to be economic, making the dollar worthless. And as luck would have it Stoltenberg and one party in the White House are playing to it, geting had by Putin’s br’er rabbit.
Can there really be a “long haul” if approximately 80 Ukranian soldiers are dying each day? Using a conservative 3 to 1 ratio for wounded to deaths, and not even considering surrenders and desertions and other causes, that means that Ukraine is losing 320 soldiers a day. Where is it going to get the manpower to replace those losses? Already, the so called “territorial” forces are being dragooned into the front lines. And we know that many Ukrainian men of “military age” have fled the country, or were already living abroad when the war started and have not returned. Ukraine has banned “military age” men (up to 60 years old!) from leaving the country and from staying abroad. And pictures and videos show that the Ukrainian troops on the front are not exactly spring chickens! The demographic profile of Ukraine was not good, for purposes of war fighting, even before the war started (aging, declining population, loss of territory, and thus population in Crimea and Donbas, young adults leaving the poverty stricken country for greener grass, low birth rates, etc), and can’t have improved since then.
Beyond the numbers, will Ukraine continue to send its men to fight in a war that seems to consist mostly of retreat, or, at best, stalemate? The “glory days” of “driving the Russians out of Kiev and Kharkov” are clearly over. Slogging through an artillery war, with the Ukrainians mostly being on the receiving end, is no bargain. We are also getting reports that the front line troops are lacking in basic supplies, like food and ammunition. And the Ukranian men most committed to the war, presumably, have already joined up, and are being killed, captured and wounded daily. Those men left, in country and out, who have not joined up, are they likely to change their minds now?
Stoltenberg also said, besides that bit about negotiations, when asked if Ukraine was being pressured by the West to accept losses of territory in order to negotiate peace, the following, “It’s not for us to decide or to have strong opinions what Ukraine should accept or not accept.” I take that to mean that while NATO is allegedly preparing for “the long haul,” it would also not look unfavorably on the Ukrainians shortening the haul, and accepting such a deal.
And, Russia has not fully mobilized its resources.
He is saying we can’t win, but we won’t give up either. Fight to the last Ukrainian, then fight an insurgency to the last building standing in Ukraine. Turn our friend we are defending into Syria.
That’s why I don’t believe Russia has any intention of occupying more than what they originally declared; the entire Donbas, Kherson and the land bridge connecting the territories; a relatively compact area, close to Russia’s borders with a primarily Russian speaking, and largely sympathetic population. It would be difficult for an “insurgency” to develop in Donetsk, or Luhansk, or Crimea – areas that have been Russian or Separatist-controlled since 2014.
The longer this conflict goes the more benefits Russia would achieve and the faster US influence would diminish globally…!
Prepare to hear the talking heads on tv say “long haul” and “attrition” a lot the next few days. In reality, of course, the situation on the ground seems to be moving relatively decisively now …
Code words for: Oh Shit.
“Most wars — also, most likely this war — will at some stage end at the negotiating table, but what we know is that what happens around the negotiating table is very closely linked to the situation on the ground, on the battlefield,” Stoltenberg said.
Well, DUH. Which is why it is in Ukraine’s interest to negotiate NOW, before Russia completes the capture of the entire Donbas. Once that’s done, Russia will NOT leave; nor will they now leave Kherson, which is critical to their defense of the Crimea. I can’t understand the failure of the major powers to pressure Ukraine into negotiating something reasonable; or of Zelensky to refuse to accept reality. By all accounts the Ukrainian army in the east is very close to breaking. The “peace” that will be forced on him in a couple months will be much harsher than what could have been negotiated pre invasion. Not to mention, all the death and destruction that occurred.
The “major powers” don’t give a f for Ukraine whatsoever. The US wants a dependent EU and China/Russia frozen out. Too soon a peace and that may be “jeopardized”, so … Z orders another “offensive” …
Ukraine is cooked. Their army is collapsing.
No matter how we slice it, nothing that any NATO official says makes sense. Starting at the Top with Biden all the way down to the Zelensky puppet.
They have no sensible policies or goals so they tell us lies, or they are totally out of their minds. They are so crazy, they believe their own lies. They are ready for the asylum. They sanction nations and expect to get cheap oil from them to make their own voters happy. If that is not insane I don’t know what is. We are in deep trouble with such leadership, and they get even paid for that and the MSM covers for them. Wednesday they announced another $700 million weapons package for Ukraine without any questions asked. As a citizen I expect an accounting for all that money, where does it go to, or are we just another Banana-Republic? Biden is not fit for the job, other than meaningless talk there is nothing. Stoltenberg is just another idiot and there is Boris Johnson and all the other sick animals, not one of these idiots deserves respect.
Insanity, as if the current Ukrainian troops going to rush in and die so the west will “feel” like they are attacking Russia. This thing is going to spiral out of control and cost the world everything. The same nation’s who do all the pontificating against Russia are guilty of it in Iraq. Even the Ukraine joined the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
A more reasonable estimate of Ukrainian losses given the extent of Russian air, missile and artillery strikes is between 500 and 1,000 per day. Count the number of strikes the Russian MoD records daily on “concentrations of manpower and equipment” and “command posts” and “artillery positions”. Even if you assume only ONE Ukrainian gets killed or wounded at each, that’s literally 500-1,000 per day. And it’s highly unlikely that only ONE Ukrainian is standing around at each facility hit.
Do the math. Ukraine is losing around 20-30,000 troops a month and has lost 60-100,000 troops since the war began. Which is why all you see at the front are Territorial Battalion troops – the second string. The first string have mostly died, been captured or fled.
Ukraine claims to have retaken half of Sievierodonetsk. If they did that with Territorial Battalion troops, there is probably a vulnerable area in their lines somewhere west of Sievierodonetsk. They had better hope that Russia doesn’t seize it, because it would likely cut their supply lines and close the cauldron.
Yes. There are a lot of Ukrainians. The West isn’t going going to be content until a lot more of them are dead.
The Ukrainians are not defending their own country, they pay the high price to be proxies defending Biden’s goal, American interests and a regime change in Moscow, preserving USA supremacy. Biden wants to rule the world, he is eying China already. Stoltenberg is a Vollidiot, but he gets paid well. Morally they are on the same level with Hitler, war criminals.
NATO Chief Says Russia Won in Ukraine