Fighting continued in Ukraine for a fifth day on Monday, with heavy Russian rocket fire reported in the northeastern city of Kharkiv.
Local Ukrainian authorities said Russian artillery hit residential districts of Kharkiv. Officials said at least 11 people were killed in Kharkiv, but at this point, nothing is confirmed. For their part, Russia denies that it is targeting residential areas.
Meanwhile, satellite images show a Russian military convoy north of Kyiv that is headed towards the city. Western media outlets are reporting that the convoy stretches 40 miles, but that number is not confirmed. Earlier reports said the convoy was only 3.25 miles long.
The convoy reportedly came within 17 miles of Kyiv on Monday, signaling that Russia could be preparing a major assault on the city.
Fighting has also continued near the southeastern port city of Mariupol in the Donetsk oblast. A militia spokesperson for the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic said early Tuesday that the Ukrainian forces are preparing “preparing provocations” in Mariupol, signaling a possible escalation in the region.
Depends on what you call a “major assault”. Russia will probably not attack Kiev immediately. Russia will likely do what it did in Syria.
This entails encircling the city, opening a humanitarian corridor for civilians who want to leave (if the Ukrainian authorities let them, which is problematic), then sit and wait. Once the city runs out of food and water and the chaos already in it causes it to collapse, Russia will move in and take over. In the meantime, while waiting, Russia will probe the city, conduct reconnaissance by force, determine the locations and strength of the enemy defense. Then, if necessary, it will conduct attacks to weaken those defenses. Eventually the city will fall.
What will also motivate the fall of the city is the imminent surrender or destruction of the 50-100,000 Ukrainian soldiers outside the Donbass. They are in the process of being surrounded by LDR and Russian columns. Depending on how the negotiations go with Ukraine, they will either surrender or be annihilated. Russia would prefer the former. That will remove some 25-30% – depending on how many Ukrainian troops are actually there – of the entire Ukrainian military.
Some Twitter “experts” said today that the Ukrainian line has collapsed along a portion of the line. I’ve seen no confirmation so far.
Bottom line: Losing a third of the Ukrainian army will be a morale breaker for Kiev, not to mention the rest of the Ukrainian military. As someone also noted over at The Saker, the bulk of the Ukrainian heavy armor and artillery are positioned outside Donbass. So the removal of that many troops will have a disproportionate effect on the capability of the remaining Ukrainian military forces, leaving them with less armor.
All in all, Kiev will fall. Might take a week, might take a month, but it will fall – unless Ukraine surrenders first.
how many Ukrainians will die at the feet of Russian soldiers?
As many as stand there with weapons in their hands. They’re being offered a chance to surrender. Better take it.
But…but…these are people with blonde hair and blue eyes!
Except for the Black Ukrainians, who are at the bottom of the pecking order and are being held up at the border.
Russia is recruiting new members to form a new government on his way to Kyiv.