Fighting between the Ukrainian military and separatists in the Donbas has increased over the past 48 hours. On Thursday, over 100 explosions were reported in eastern Ukraine. The number increased to nearly 600 on Friday. The blasts are reported to have come from tank and artillery fire on both sides of the Line of Control.
As the fighting picks up pace, the leader of the Donetsk region, Denis Pushilin, posted a video message calling for “a mass centralized departure of the population to the Russian Federation.” Up to 700,000 are expected to flee the region, with buses already transporting out the first to go. Moscow says it is prepared to feed and house the Ukrainian refugees in southern Russia.
Separatist leaders in the Donbas have been in opposition to Kiev since 2015. Violations of the Minsk Protocol ceasefire agreement are common. However, Both Moscow and Washington have warned that conflict in Donetsk or Luhansk could expand into a larger war. For months, Biden administration officials have claimed that Russia is planning a ‘false flag’ or fabricated attack as a pretext to invade Ukraine.
Shortly after Pushilin’s announcement, a car bomb exploded near the headquarters of the Donetsk People’s Republic, one of two major separatist break-off states in eastern Ukraine. The attack targeted Donetsk’s head of security. No injuries were reported in the attack, but the official’s vehicle was destroyed.
While there was some speculation the car bomb could be the trigger for a Russian invasion, Ukrainian officials continue to downplay the threat. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told his country’s parliament on Friday that “We estimate the probability of a large-scale escalation as low,” adding “Our intelligence sees every move that could pose a potential threat to Ukraine.”
While the US’s dire predictions of invasion have yet to come true, there is no indication the fighting in Ukraine will slow down, with Donbas officials rejecting any talks with Kiev as pointless. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, said he is “very concerned” about the ongoing violations of the Minsk agreement.
Kyle Anzalone is the opinion editor of Antiwar.com, news editor of the Libertarian Institute, and co-host of Conflicts of Interest.
The Saker has the best assessment of the current situation:
Russian options in the LDNR – my personal take
https://thesaker.is/russian-options-in-the-ldnr-my-personal-take/
I agree. As he mentions, it may be the Ukraine intends to ratchet up the artillery strikes slowly, a sort of “boil the frog” approach. What they don’t realize is that Russia has many options besides storming across the border. Russia can ship better counter-battery tech to the Donbass militias (if they haven’t done so already). Russia can distribute counter-battery intel to the militia artillery units (if they’re not doing so already.) Russia can send armed drones in to take out Ukrainian artillery battalions from behind.
Drones are great. It’s hard to detect them absent adequate battlefield radar, they can attack from any direction unlike artillery, they’re harder to evade by “shoot and move” tactics unlike artillery, and can be used for reconnaissance as well with thermal detection making it difficult to hide a tactical position.
As The Saker says, as long as the line of contact doesn’t move, or move too far or too fast, Russia doesn’t have to do anything. The Donbass militia can handle it as long as the artillery shelling doesn’t increase beyond their capability to respond in tit-for-tat or the civilian casualties and infrastructure damage isn’t too much.
This is what real shelling looks like – when this happens, then it’s on:
РСЗО «Торнадо-Г» за 20 секунд уничтожили условного противника под Волгоградом
Where was this shelling done?
Don’t know. Could be Russian training exercise.
Watched a video the other day where that Texan in Donbass claimed the Donbass militias are concerned that Ukrainian military knows not to get caught out in the open this time and plan to invade and hold all cities and villages near the front lines to use civilians as human shields.
If that happens, Russia must go in and clear them on foot as usual artillery and bombing would be impossible and the Donbass militias would be overwhelmed.
This would be the years long quagmire the US has been predicting would happen.
Unless of course all civilians evacuate, and Russia could then simply destroy every city and village with Ukrainian army still hiding in them.
This would explain the emergency evacuation orders recently.
One way to counter that is to destroy their logistics and then surround them. They’ll run out of ammo, food and water sooner or later and be forced to surrender. Still somewhat of a grind for the militia, unless they’re willing to wait them out, so better to hold them before they can do that.
Also, if Russia destroys their communications capability, they’ll be reduced to an unorganized mob left on their own in those cities while being surrounded.
War is more than just taking territory. You have to destroy the enemy. If you can’t move, you lose eventually. The trench warfare of the last 7 years wouldn’t exist except they agreed to it.
Also they won’t be allowed to overrun the cities. Russia would move before that happens. I’m sure they’re aware of the threat.
If it turns out that some cities get overrun, when the war is over, those troops who harmed citizens will be turned over to Russia (or worse – for them – the Donbass militias) for war crimes trials and executions.
Cut off their supply. Which is fraught with danger, but could work.
This would be the years long concoction that U.S. has been ratcheting up. FIFY
DPR announces full mobilization amid fears of Kiev’s offensive
https://dan-news.info/en/politics/dpr-announces-full-mobilization-amid-fears-of-kievs-offensive/
History of American False Flag Operations
http://911review.com/articles/anon/false_flag_perations.html
We wanted to set up the killing of American soldiers to justify an invasion of Cuba.
The Northwoods documents, yes. And not only US soldiers, but civilians as well.
If you’re interested, The Saker just posted the alleged Ukraine operational plan for the new offensive on Donbass. Take it with as much salt as you like.
Donbass war – quick update
https://thesaker.is/donbass-war-quick-update/
Nothing like really doubling down on how to piss Russia off…
Ukraine threatens to renounce its non-nuclear status
https://www.rt.com/russia/549994-ukraine-threatens-renounce-memorandum/
Who has sn interest in escallation. Not “both sides”. Kyev calls the region “terrorists”, will not implement Minsk, wants military solution, Dinbas wants Minsk implementation, and has no known advantage in trying to escallate.
Only US can decide if Ukraine will move on Donetsk.
It nearly happened, than was stopped. Now that Russia has not been impressed with NATO/US response -/ back into uncharted territory,
Thus, back to old plan, threatening Dinbas. Only this time territory without vulnerable civilians will have advantage in both defence and offence. It is back on.
so despite all of uncle sam’s B.S. it is ukraine government who are attacking other ukrainians
NAZIs v Russian-speaking peoples. The same NAZIs that burned alive Russian -speaking peoples in 2014. I think that might be called Banderites.
The escalations in violence could be the result of mass media instigation. No one has agitated for war in Donbas more than American corporate newscasters.
Bernhad has done another great job of exposing who’s shelling and who’s lying about it.
Ukraine – Who Is Firing At Whom And Who Is Lying About It?
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/02/ukraine-who-is-firing-at-whom-and-who-is-lying-about-it.html
He supplies links to the relevant OSCE resources.
OSCE Press Releases: https://www.osce.org/press-releases
OSCE Daily Updates: https://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/reports
OSCE Trends and Observations Reports: https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/417620
Meanwhile the US extends the false flags attacks to Russia itself:
US tells citizens in Russia to prepare ‘evacuation plans’
The embassy has warned Americans of potential “attacks” in Moscow and St. Petersburg, advising them to prepare to leave with no assistance
https://www.rt.com/russia/550061-us-embassy-russia-evacuation-attacks/
Security Alert: U.S. Mission Russia (February 20, 2022)
https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-mission-russia-february-20-2022/