A classified report from the US’s National Intelligence Council has found that even a large-scale US assault on Iran is unlikely to oust the Islamic government and military establishment, The Washington Post reported on Saturday.
The intelligence report was completed about one week before the US and Israel launched the war on February 28 with major airstrikes, including Israeli strikes that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Despite the slaying of Khamenei, the government remains intact, and Iran’s military continues to launch counterattacks against Israel and US bases in the region.
A source told the Post that it was “unlikely” the fractured opposition in Iran would be able to take power and that if Khamenei were killed, the Iranian government would undertake the process to replace him. On Sunday, Iranian media reported that Iran’s Assembly of Experts has now chosen Khamenei’s son as the new leader.
While several Trump administration officials have denied that the US is seeking regime change, President Trump has made clear that it’s his ultimate goal. He said last week that he wanted a say in choosing Iran’s next leader and called for the country’s “unconditional surrender.”
US officials also told the Post that, so far, there’s no sign of an uprising against the Iranian government or of fissures within it that could result in a new regime. Israeli officials have also told Israeli media that there’s no sign of Iranian military collapse despite the heavy US-Israeli air campaign.
