A Nigerian activist’s disputed statistics, adopted by several US Republicans and echoed by President Donald Trump, have come under fresh scrutiny after they were used to justify American airstrikes on Christmas Day. Emeka Umeagbalasi, a screwdriver salesman who runs the International Society for Civil Liberties and the Rule of Law out of his home in Onitsha, Nigeria, claims that more than 125,000 Nigerian Christians have been killed since 2009. He admits he rarely visits attack sites or confirms victims’ religions, instead relying on local media, advocacy groups, and Google searches. Yet Senator Ted Cruz and Representatives Riley Moore and Chris Smith have cited his reports to allege a genocide. Umeagbalasi told interviewers that when kidnappings occur in southern Borno he simply assumes the victims are Christians. The reliance on his figures illustrates how narratives about religious persecution can distort complex conflicts and spur interventions that may do little to improve security.
The controversies around Intersociety’s methodology are substantial. Independent analysts note that Nigeria’s federal government does not publish comprehensive data on violent deaths or the faith of victims, making accurate tallies difficult. Nnamdi Obasi of the International Crisis Group said Intersociety’s reports are impossible to audit because they include basic arithmetic errors and unverified claims. Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah of Sokoto, the northwestern state targeted by the US strike, argued that focusing on religious headcounts obscures the real problem: a weak Nigerian state that cannot protect its people. Research adds that Islamist groups like Boko Haram have killed more Muslims than Christians, with attacks on mosques exceeding assaults on churches. Violence in Nigeria’s Middle Belt often arises from land disputes, ethnic rivalries, and criminal banditry rather than a campaign of religious extermination.
Despite these uncertainties, Trump announced on Truth Social that US forces launched a “deadly” strike against “ISIS terrorist scum” in northwest Nigeria, saying the targets were killing Christians. According to Nigeria’s government, the December 25 operation hit two Islamic State–linked camps in the Bauni forest of Sokoto state using 16 GPS‑guided munitions. Officials said the camps were staging areas for militants infiltrating from the Sahel and claimed the strikes caused no civilian casualties. Trump praised the mission as “perfect” and warned there would be more to come. No independent group has verified the identities of those killed.
The strike underscores an unusual level of security cooperation between Washington and Abuja but raises familiar questions. Nigeria has spent years fighting insurgents without resolving the underlying grievances of poverty, corruption, and weak governance. Critics warn that US bombs based on dubious data risk inflaming grievances and reinforcing jihadist narratives that the West is at war with Islam. They note that previous American interventions premised on faulty intelligence have backfired; a British parliamentary inquiry into the 1998 missile strike on Sudan’s al‑Shifa pharmaceutical factory concluded that the attack, carried out after unproven allegations of chemical weapons, was a “disastrous misjudgment.”
By elevating unverified claims of Christian genocide, US politicians may be encouraging a sectarian lens that misrepresents Nigeria’s turmoil. Most victims of violence in northern Nigeria are poor villagers – Muslim and Christian – caught between jihadists, bandits, and a failing state. Without credible data and a focus on the root causes of insecurity, foreign military intervention risks adding another layer of violence to a country already struggling with it.
Alan Mosley is a historian, jazz musician, policy researcher for the Tenth Amendment Center, and host of It’s Too Late, “The #1 Late Night Show in America (NOT hosted by a Communist)!” New episodes debut every Wednesday night at 9ET across all major platforms; just search “AlanMosleyTV” or “It’s Too Late with Alan Mosley.”
