Originally published at Judgenap.com and reprinted with permission
Data shows that Ukraine’s ability to shoot down incoming Russian drones has decreased in recent months.
Ukrainian Air Force data analyzed by ABC News shows that in October, it was only able to down 4,200 of the 5,300 drones fired by Russia. At the start of the year, Kiev was able to down 90% of the drones fired by Moscow’s troops. That number decreased to 85% in August and September, before falling to under 80% in October.
In addition to drones, Ukrainian forces are struggling to intercept Russian missiles. “Ukraine’s ballistic missile interception rate improved over the summer, reaching 37% in August, but it plummeted to 6% in September, despite fewer launches,” according to the Financial Times.
The gaps in Ukraine’s air defenses have led to widespread blackouts. “These days, in most regions, repair crews, power engineers, and utility services are virtually working around the clock,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday. “The Russians have increased their striking power.”
Aside from slumping interception rates, Kiev faces other challenges in maintaining its air defenses. The Patriot air defense system is the most effective against Russian missiles, but faces supply chain issues.
The US can produce only 600 Patriot interceptors per year. In July, The Guardian reported that the US only had 25% of the interceptors it needed to execute its battle plans. Additionally, there is already a backlog of countries awaiting delivery of Patriot interceptors.
Kiev is also seeking more Patriot systems to fire the interceptors. Washington has already pushed its NATO allies to transfer its systems to Kiev, promising to move any country that sends Patriots to Ukraine to the top of the list for replacement.
Earlier this month, Germany transferred two Patriot systems to Ukraine. However, President Zelensky said that Kiev needed an additional 25 systems.
Cost is another factor that makes sustaining Ukraine’s air defenses increasingly difficult. The Western interceptors are far more expensive than the Russian munitions. Moscow can also produce offensive weapons faster than Kiev’s backers can build interceptors.
Mike Fredenburg argued at Responsible Statecraft that these factors could prove fatal for Kiev. “This distortion obscures the reality that Russia’s cost-effective missile production provides a big advantage in sustainability,” he wrote. “While high Western missile costs, combined with US difficulties in rapidly expanding missile production, is a huge disadvantage in any kind of sustained conflict, and could be a fatal disadvantage in going up against a peer competitor that can throw thousands of missiles at our ships and even attack U.S.-based military facilities.”
