The minerals deal that gives the US access to Ukraine’s natural resources will count future US military aid as a contribution to a joint investment fund, suggesting the agreement could increase US weapons shipments to Ukraine.
According to the text of the agreement, once it goes into effect, if the US “delivers new military assistance to the Government of Ukraine in any form (including the donation of weapons systems, ammunition, technology or training), the capital contribution of the US Partner will be deemed to be increased by the assessed value of such military assistance.”
The deal only counts future military aid as a contribution to the fund and does not reimburse the US for previous US assistance. President Trump initially demanded that the US get hundreds of billions of dollars back for weapons sent by the Biden administration.
In another sign that US weapons shipments to Ukraine could ramp up, the administration notified Congress on Tuesday, the day before the minerals deal was signed, that it was going forward with its first arms sale to Ukraine.
The administration said in a notification that it planned to authorize the export of “defense articles, including technical data, and defense services” to Ukraine in the amount of $50 million or more. The notification provided no information about the potential deal.
According to the Kyiv Post, the weapons deal is being done as a direct commercial sale (DCS), which is when the State Department gives a private company permission to sell weapons directly to a foreign government. Under US arms export laws, the administration is required to notify Congress of a DCS sale of “defense articles” if it’s worth $50 million or more, meaning the actual sale could be worth more.
While the Trump administration hadn’t previously approved new arms deals for Ukraine, it has continued weapons shipments to the country that were approved under President Biden. The shipments were briefly paused after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s contentious Oval Office meeting, but were quickly resumed after more talks between US and Ukrainian officials.
The minerals deal, which still needs to be ratified by Ukraine’s parliament, comes as a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia seems unlikely. US officials have said they will walk away from the negotiations if an agreement isn’t reached soon.
It’s unclear if the Trump administration would continue funding the proxy war if negotiations fail, but the terms of the minerals deal and the movement on a US arms sale to Ukraine suggest that it will.
