The minerals deal that gives the US access to Ukraine’s natural resources will count future US military aid as a contribution to a joint investment fund, suggesting the agreement could increase US weapons shipments to Ukraine.
According to the text of the agreement, once it goes into effect, if the US “delivers new military assistance to the Government of Ukraine in any form (including the donation of weapons systems, ammunition, technology or training), the capital contribution of the US Partner will be deemed to be increased by the assessed value of such military assistance.”
The deal only counts future military aid as a contribution to the fund and does not reimburse the US for previous US assistance. President Trump initially demanded that the US get hundreds of billions of dollars back for weapons sent by the Biden administration.
In another sign that US weapons shipments to Ukraine could ramp up, the administration notified Congress on Tuesday, the day before the minerals deal was signed, that it was going forward with its first arms sale to Ukraine.
The administration said in a notification that it planned to authorize the export of “defense articles, including technical data, and defense services” to Ukraine in the amount of $50 million or more. The notification provided no information about the potential deal.
According to the Kyiv Post, the weapons deal is being done as a direct commercial sale (DCS), which is when the State Department gives a private company permission to sell weapons directly to a foreign government. Under US arms export laws, the administration is required to notify Congress of a DCS sale of “defense articles” if it’s worth $50 million or more, meaning the actual sale could be worth more.
While the Trump administration hadn’t previously approved new arms deals for Ukraine, it has continued weapons shipments to the country that were approved under President Biden. The shipments were briefly paused after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s contentious Oval Office meeting, but were quickly resumed after more talks between US and Ukrainian officials.
The minerals deal, which still needs to be ratified by Ukraine’s parliament, comes as a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia seems unlikely. US officials have said they will walk away from the negotiations if an agreement isn’t reached soon.
It’s unclear if the Trump administration would continue funding the proxy war if negotiations fail, but the terms of the minerals deal and the movement on a US arms sale to Ukraine suggest that it will.
This just became Trumps War, and he will reap his just deserts!
He should have walked away to save face for America.
Old fool missed his opportunity.
He craves admiration and the MIC will adore him for this.
One doesn't 'end the killing' by sending the losing side enough weapons so that they can continue to die. If Trump stopped all support for the Ukraine, the war would end in two weeks and the Russian army takes what it had planned to take anyway but without thousands more dead and maimed.
If Trump stopped all support for Ukraine it would probably extend the war for an additional decade before the Russian forces evacuate Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
Who is going to force the Russians to evacuate Kherson or Zaporozhiya?
It won't be the Ukrainian army and it won't be a mythical partisan war carried out by the people of Kherson or Zaporozhiya who voted to join the Russian Federation.
These oblasts are now considered Russian territory by the Russians. The Russians will evacuate these regions about the same time the US evacuates California.
When the Russian regime gets tired enough of bleeding Russian blood in its unsuccessful attempts to rule the portions of Kherson & Zaporizhzhia it has occupied and take the parts of those oblasts that it hasn’t taken and won’t take, it will pull its troops out of there. Which will probably be when and if it’s able to secure Donetsk so that it can declare some pitiful semblance of “victory.”
As I asked in my post – who is going to be doing all this killing of these Russians? The Ukrainian army? Mythical partisans? And while this is going on the Russians will be inactive? I suggest your ideas are fueled by wishful thinking.
In order for my ideas to be fueled by wishful thinking, they’d have to represent something I wish for.
I don’t give a single runny shit which regime rules which acre of turf and treats its people as livestock.
Noticing the epic fiasco that the Russian invasion turned into within weeks, followed by three years of embarrassing inability to even secure Donetsk isn’t a matter of what I “wish” for. It’s just what happened.
What happened in 2022 and what is happening in 2025 are not the same. The Russian military of 2022 is not the same as the Russian military of 2025. Or haven’t you noticed? A fool continues to extrapolate the 2022 Russian army performance ad infinitum into the future. Things have changed. So: Who will force the Russians to leave Kherson and Zaporozhiya? And why? Answers, not more of your “runny shit” deflection.
It’s not a “who” will force the Russians to leave the oblasts they’ve failed to conquer. It’s a “what” — time. Eventually failure, especially failure accompanied by loss of blood, becomes tiring.
Is it POSSIBLE that the Russian military will evolve into a more successful fighting force? Sure, anything’s possible. The reason I consider it unlikely is that after more than three years there’s still not much evidence of it happening, and the economic odds of facing an opponent backed by regimes with many times Russia’s production capacity don’t look good either.
Thank you for making the effort to offer reasons. They’re not good reasons, but an improvement over your earlier offerings.
In your pro-Russian, nationalist, military, moralistic, propagandistic position, you are forgetting some parameters: NATO, Europe, public international law with its treaties (UN, OSCE, NATO), the more than 5 million Russian-speaking refugees from Ukraine to Russia since 2014, the image of Russia in international public opinion, etc.
https://www.intellinews.com/more-than-5-5mn-ukrainian-refugees-have-fled-to-russia-from-ukraine-survey-finds-half-of-refugees-with-no-intention-of-going-home-274307/
https://tass.com/society/1568727 30 Jan 2023 "Over 5.2 mln refugees arrive in Russia from Ukraine since February"
https://tass.com/russia/764316 29 Nov 2014 More than 830,000 Ukrainians come to Russia since April 2014 – FMS (until the end of November 2014)
What is the point you are trying to make?
The Russian-speaking population of Ukraine, especially in eastern Ukraine, seems to have little confidence in the Russian military, unlike you.
More likely the Russian speaking population of eastern Ukraine prefers to remove themselves from a war zone. They will return when they feel safe enough to do so. That fact doesn’t speak to confidence or a lack thereof in the Russian military. What about the millions of Ukrainian speaking Ukrainians who fled Ukraine when the first shots were fired in this war, most of whom have no intention of returning to Ukraine? Does that speak of confidence in the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian government, or the future of Ukraine?
More than 6 million Ukrainian civilians are fleeing to neighboring European countries, like the more than 5 million migrants to Russia, from the counter-revolutionary, imperialist, Russian war of aggression since February/March 2014, after the Euromaidan/anti-Euromaidan riots and the Russian conquest of Crimea, right?
https://unric.org/en/ukraine-over-6-million-refugees-spread-across-europe/
https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine/location?secret=unhcrrestricted Ukraine Refugee Situation
Ukrainians have fled Ukraine. Again: what is your point?
You reply rhetorically like an authoritarian school teacher who pretends not to understand the student's answer in order to avoid my question, which you do not respond to. Thus, in your previous statements in this section, you ignore the security guarantees of the US, Russia, and the UK in their treaties with Ukraine, in particular the OSCE regulations and the Budapest Agreement, etc.
https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf Budapest Agreement
https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_1994_1399.pdf 7 December 1994, Budapest Agreement: "Confirm the following: 1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;"
https://www.osce.org/resources/csce-osce-key-documents
These are all war stories by retirees, fans, and onlookers. No one knows what will happen when – and if – there is a settlement which shuts down active hostilities.
AFAICS, Ukraine is already a destroyed state, whose only hope for a long term recovery will be with the capitalist bloodsuckers who are profiting from this war's active phase. The Ukrainian and Russian people suffering from the war's active phase are the real losers, which means merely that the same assholes will be running the show as history has illustrated for the past couple of millennia.
"Russian army takes what it had planned to take anyway"
The plans are changing. After the coup 2014 Russia wanted only Crimea. Next offer was Crimea plus two Donbass republics. Next – Crimea, two Donbass republics plus Kherson and Zaporozhie oblasts. Sure next offer will be worse for Ukraine.
Does the minerals deal include an invitation to Putin to attack the mines?
How does publicly international law assess the situation of the illegally occupied, annexed territories of Ukraine as a result of Russia's counter-revolutionary, imperialistic war of aggression since February/March 2014 in the framework of the US-Ukraine Mineral Agreement?
https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org/international-investment-agreements/treaty-files/2366/download TREATY BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND UKRAINE CONCERNING THE ENCOURAGEMENT AND RECIPROCAL PROTECTION OF INVESTMENT
The constitutions of the USA, Russia, and Ukraine define publicly international law as the supreme law of the land.
https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-6/#VI_C2 "This Constitution, and the Laws of the United States which shall be made in Pursuance thereof; and all Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the Authority of the United States, shall be the supreme Law of the Land;"
https://mid.ru/upload/medialibrary/fa3/xwhwumdwunawy9iprvhcxdqds1lzxqdx/CONSTITUTION-Eng.pdf Article 15 of the Russian Constitution: "4. Universally recognized principles and norms of international law as well as international agreements of the Russian Federation should be an integral part of its legal system. If an international agreement of the Russian Federation establishes rules, which differ from those stipulated by law, then the rules of the international agreement shall be applied."
https://hcj.gov.ua/sites/default/files/field/file/the_constitution_of_ukraine.pdf "Article 9. International treaties in force ratified by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine shall be a part of the national legislation of Ukraine. Conclusion of international treaties that contravene the Constitution of Ukraine shall be possible only after introducing relevant amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine."
Russian troops already occupy most of the mines listed in this deal.
Which list are you talking about? In the US-Ukraine minerals deal document, there is only a list of minerals and not a list of mines.
https://www.kmu.gov.ua/storage/app/uploads/public/681/33c/e8f/68133ce8f2e82842702204.pdf "Agreement between the Government of Ukraine and the Government of the United States of America on the Establishment of a United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund"
https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org/international-investment-agreements/treaty-files/2366/download March 4, 1994, TREATY BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND UKRAINE CONCERNING THE ENCOURAGEMENT AND RECIPROCAL PROTECTION OF INVESTMENT
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/05/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-secures-agreement-to-establish-united-states-ukraine-reconstruction-investment-fund/
Most of those minerals are in the Donbas. This is not valid anyway since it was signed by a low-level official (not Z) and must be ratified by their parliament, which is unlikely since Z doesn’t like it.
https://law.duke.edu/ilrt/treaties_3.htm U.S. Treaties & Agreements – The Process https://hcj.gov.ua/sites/default/files/field/file/the_constitution_of_ukraine.pdf "Article 85. The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine shall have the following powers: 32) granting consent to the binding character of international treaties of Ukraine, and denouncing international treaties of Ukraine"
April 30, 2025 Ukraine has to make concessions – Finnish president
Finnish leader admits that Kiev is not in a position to demand its own terms in peace negotiations. Increasingly, Western leaders are acknowledging the undeniable reality of Ukraine’s defeat. Although they may use different words, Western politicians are recognizing that Kiev will not be able to achieve its goals in the war and will have to accept territorial losses at some point if it is to avoid further damage.
https://infobrics.org/post/44054
So the US sends weapons to Ukraine and that counts as capital, as investment. That's wonderful, but how is that investment going to generate a profit?
Because for Ukraine's imaginary mineral resources to ever turn into hard cash, somebody would have to spend untold billions of $$$ drilling in search of actual mineral resources. And if those are ever fund in exploitable form, somebody would have to spend a lot more billions developing mines.
Weapon "capital" won't accomplish any of that. The Ukrainians don't have billions of $$$ either. The Chinese will not invest money if all the profits go to the US, neither will the EU.
It seems to me US taxpayers will be on the hook for those weapons and I'll eat my keyboard if we ever see a return on this "investment". Gee, thank you Trump for another great deal!
Correct. This is just a neocon scheme to continue funding the war in Ukraine by pretending we are selling them weapons in exchange for minerals in the future. This will extend the perpetual and profitable war til next year as neocons ignore the battlefield and pretend Russia can't win.
Eventually next Ukrainian regime may count it as an investment in anti-Ukrainian activity and cancel this deal.
That's what MAGA calls "Art of the Deal" – takeover other countries by "devilish" negotiations. Carney from Canada be aware when you meet with Trump here soon.
I'm not an accountant or a doctor, but, this arrangement REALLY sounds like some kind of tax scam ("if military aid is 'investment' we can write it all off in April 2026 !") or a rule-lawyering scheme (if the $$$ and equipment is "investment" and not "military aid" it'll avoid the following legal obstacles…)
Now, you ask yourself… Who is the best in cheating taxes that could set this up in the wh…?! You guessed correctly…!
This deal is as fake as it gets…! With 60% of minerals under Russian control…! And a late military aid to Ukraine upon the discovery of actual mineral mines on the Kiev side…! Seems like a quick robbery… or Kiev lied to DC about the true location of the minerals…!
https://sonar21.com/donald-trumps-grotesque-lie-about-the-us-role-in-world-war-ii/
The US borrows money to pay interest on its war debts. Russian war debts really are an investment.
The world is definitely seeing that US policies are based on US propaganda reflected through the lens of US supported foreign literature and media. Media mogul/CIA propaganda is the basis of US politics and culture.
The US Congress, Executive, and Judicial branches inform themselves and make their war plans via reprinted foreign news sources that are disseminating US propaganda.
The US military is a traitorous occupying force north of the Rio Grand and coast to coast. Generals and Admirals have the maturity and thinking of a teenager opening new credit cards to pay the interest on nonproductive debts charged on old credit cards. The problem for the world is US citizens have been brainwashed to think endless war, murder of innocent families and genocide are honorable and worthy goals of their indispensable nation defending freedom, human rights and democracy.
You live comfortably under the U.S. nuclear umbrella, in peace, don't you? Are you calling for those nuclear weapons to be abolished everywhere?
US unilateral cuts would be a good start. Nuclear weapons are a terrorist weapon aimed mostly at civilians. If the US lowers its terrorist threat level, brave military personnel could still murder many millions of innocent moms, dads and kids.
Good question: https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1918385087366021274
Michael Hudson sees it as an escalation. That the minerals deal is a fig leaf.
Stupid, Stupid, Stupid. I guess you really cannot fix it after all.
The last survey of minerals in Ukraine happened in the 1980s under the Soviet Union. President Trump just bought magic beans in exchange for more American wealth!