Military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities will be a “real possibility” under the incoming Trump administration, Axios reported on Monday.
The report said Trump is expected to face an Iran crisis this year due to the country’s nuclear activity, although there is no evidence Iran has decided to build a nuclear weapon, something that’s recently been acknowledged by the CIA.
Incoming Trump officials have called for a return to “maximum pressure,” referring to the previous Trump administration’s Iran policy, which involved withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, imposing crippling economic sanctions, and assassinating Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani.
The Biden administration essentially continued the same policy and added more sanctions on Iran, although Tehran has increased its export of oil to markets in Asia where buyers aren’t afraid of US sanctions.
Trump advisors told Axios that the “maximum pressure” strategy might not work, making a military option possible. Sources said that Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer left a meeting with Trump in November believing it was highly likely he would either support Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities or order a direct US strike on Iran.
Back in October, Trump criticized President Biden for advising Israel not to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities. “They asked him, what do you think about Iran, would you hit Iran? And he goes, ‘As long as they don’t hit the nuclear stuff.’ That’s the thing you want to hit, right?” Trump said at a campaign rally.
The Axios report also said that there are officials within the Biden administration arguing for the US to bomb Iran before Trump’s inauguration. The outlet reported last week that Biden was presented with options to attack Iran but said there are currently no active discussions about doing so.
The hype about Tehran’s nuclear program is based on the fact that Iran is enriching some uranium at 60% purity, which is still lower than the 90% needed for weapons-grade. Iran took the step enrich at 60% in 2021 in response to an Israeli sabotage attack on the Natanz nuclear facility. The JCPOA limited Iran’s uranium enrichment to 3.67%.
Israeli aggression in the region has prompted calls from members of Iran’s parliament to rethink the ban on building nuclear weapons, but there’s no sign that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is considering lifting his 2003 fatwa that prohibited the development of Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Iran is also a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and all of its nuclear facilities are for civilian purposes. In contrast, Israel is not a signatory to the NPT and has a secret nuclear weapons program that the US does not officially acknowledge. It’s estimated that Israel has somewhere between 90 and 300 nuclear warheads.
