Russian gas deliveries to Europe through a Ukrainian pipeline will end on January 1 as a five-year agreement signed in 2019 expires at the end of 2024.
Russian gas continued to flow through the Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline following the Russian invasion of Ukraine under a deal signed between Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz, both state-run gas companies.
The Russian news agency TASS reported there were no orders for gas to be pumped through the pipeline on January 1 and said that meant the chances of a last-minute deal to keep the gas flowing were slim.
Ukraine chose not to renew the agreement, a step that angered Slovakia, which receives Russian gas through the Ukrainian pipeline. From Slovakia, the pipeline split and took gas to Austria and the Czech Republic.
Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, an opponent of NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine, had warned Slovakia could take “reciprocal measures” in response to Ukraine not renewing the deal. He said those measures could include cutting electricity exports to Ukraine.
In comments to POLITICO, Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko dismissed Fico’s threat, saying, “I don’t think that they would do this.” If Slovakia does cut electricity to Ukraine, Poland has said it could boost power production.
According to Reuters, Slovakia is not expected to face gas shortages and could make up for what it loses through the pipeline by importing more from Hungary, Poland, and Austria.
Slovakia will be fine you say, they just have to repurchase expensive and destructive LNG originally shipped from the US. Problem solved, proxy war for market share successful.
Or Russian liquified natural gas. Europe imported 50% of Russia LNG exports last year. The EU not only present themselves to be full of bullshit, they are also actually full of bullshit.
And the biggest kick in the a$$, remember this?
TRADING WITH THE ENEMY
Amid rampant corruption in Kiev and as US troops gather at the Ukrainian border, does the Biden administration have an endgame to the conflict?
Zelensky has been buying the fuel from Russia, the country with which it, and Washington, are at war, and the Ukrainian president and many in his entourage have been skimming untold millions from the American dollars earmarked for diesel fuel payments. One estimate by analysts from the Central Intelligence Agency put the embezzled funds at $400 million last year, at least; another expert compared the level of corruption in Kiev as approaching that of the Afghan war, “although there will be no professional audit reports emerging from the Ukraine.”
“Zelensky’s been buying discount diesel from the Russians,” one knowledgeable American intelligence official told me. “And who’s paying for the gas and oil? We are. Putin and his oligarchs are making millions” on it.
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/trading-with-the-enemy
The main theme about the whole SMO from the EU-Ukraine-US side is that it is all just a giant steaming heap of bovine excrement. There is nothing about it, politically, militarily, economically, strategically and diplomatically that is not either an unrelenting vomatory of utter make belief, lies, phantasmagoric propaganda exercitations, punctured with absolutely sickening cynical truths, presented by the never faltering emetic personality of Graham (lets kill some more Ukrainians for cash) Lindsey, or a demonstration of inane incompetence resulting in a range of spectacular self inflicted defeats.
Victoria Nuland: "F… EU"
We are seeing that phrase play out in real time. No doubt she's very pleased.
F'ing Europe was always part of the plan. The EU economy was approaching the size of America's. Something had to be done. But don't take it personally, Europe. It's just business.
Don't think Europe will be able to hold anything against the US or against Victoria Nuland. She couldn't even imagine the absolutely brutal way the EU fucked itself. No one has any business sympathizing with this decrepit bunch of autoasphyxiation enthiusiasts. Just let them suffocate. They deserve everything that's coming to them.
Europe is nowhere near the US economy and has been struggling. https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/s/GMmGdyoX72
Price of natural gas in Europe now back to levels of August 2021 – just for the people thinking that ending dependence on Russian gas is somehow a major problem for EU countries.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
You're referencing the subsidized retail price.
What gave you that idea?
The quote is from:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
So not a price for retail consumers and AFAIK not with any subsidies.
"The price that energy customers pay in Europe has never been higher than in 2023. Far from being back at pre-pandemic levels, electricity and natural gas rates were still increasing in the first half of the year. The growing energy demand observed during the ‘post-pandemic’ economic recovery in 2021 and 2022 brought about a global energy supply shortage, which evolved into an outright crisis in the European Union when Russia invaded Ukraine. Since then, the dependency on fossil fuel imports in some European countries, low hydropower production, and reduced nuclear power capacity in France have caused the EU energy inflation rate to skyrocket.
Electricity prices in the EU
For consumers, the energy supply shortage has been most notable when examining electricity prices for households. Although an upward trend had been observed for years, notable jumps in the average end-user price were recorded from June 2021 until the second half of 2023. Germany regularly records the highest household electricity prices in the European region. In 2023, German residents using between 1,000 and 2,500 kilowatt-hours per year paid around 45-euro cents per kilowatt-hour. Elevated household electricity prices in countries such as Belgium and Denmark are often associated with high taxes. However, as raw material costs rose so much that they accounted for most of the end-user prices in 2022 despite the implementation of energy caps, the EU subsidized energy taxes and levies to support consumers. In 2023, as prices of raw energy started to decline, tax subsidies were withdrawn, leading to a new increase in the overall energy price."
https://www.statista.com/topics/4226/energy-prices-in-the-eu/#topicOverview
Yes indeed the prices in 2023 were higher than ever before, but the point I make is that these did not persist.
The point being that introducing sanctions caused a temporary price hike – not a permanent one.
And for your information there is no subsidized price on gas in EU – in some EU countries vulnerable families have received financial aid to assist with heating expenditures – but not faced lower gas prices.
Looking at your source, it appears that the current price of natural gas, 50.5 Euros/MWh, is only about 54% higher than one year ago, when is was 32.7 Euros/MWh (50.5/32.7=1.54).
And only 250% higher than it was in January of 2021 (19.1 Euros/MWh)
So, congratulations, Europe is a winner!
And in August 2021 it was also 50 Euros – ergo the price fluctuates (a lot) and is not currently unreasonably out of whack with pre SMO prices.
In January of 2020, the price was 10 Euros, and the price averaged about 20 Euros in the 10 years prior to that. So I'd say 20 Euros is a reasonable estimate.
Again all you show is that prices have fluctuated – if your claim is that the sanctions have caused prices to skyrocket – why is it that we had essentially the same price in August 2021 as we do now?
Prices of energy has risen across the board and without the SMO EU were set to artificially increase prices via 'taxes' as part of the green transition.
From your source:
"Prices have surged about 45% this year and are expected to remain elevated, especially with Russian gas flows through Ukraine set to halt on January 1. While gas routed via Ukraine represents less than 5% of Europe’s needs, its loss would add strain to an already tight market. Reserves are being depleted faster than usual due to cold and windless weather, posing challenges for securing adequate supplies next winter. Additionally, growing competition from Asia, where extreme heat and expanded LNG storage have intensified demand, is further pressuring the market. Despite Europe’s efforts to diversify its supply sources and invest in renewables, prices remain volatile, driven by global competition and lingering production risks."
For your information:
Not just the height of gas prices but also their volatility is a problem for business.
My judgment:
I didn't mind being dependent on russian oil and gas. It didn't cause problems. I do mind being in any way dependent on the US regime.
The fact remains that prices are not elevated beyond reason from August 2021 so before the SMO.
And yes price fluctuations are a problem – but pretty much a given in a world where aggressive wars of territorial conquest becomes the new norm.
I do not mind giving up Russian gas if the cost of that gas is a return to wars of territorial conquest – nor does the majority of people in Europe.
We know only all too well the costs that comes with that kind of behavior.
Thx for your reply.
1. "Beyond reason" is not an economic criterion.
The matter is, can energy costs – for german industry etc. – be covered by prices?
2. The spike in 2022 was caused by expectations that sanctions against Russia would cripple energy exports. That spike is not so interesting.
By beyond reason – I meant if it had outpaced inflation – it has not.
That should not steal away from the hidden point behind the gas price issue. I.e. that pipeline gas was consistently cheaper in much of the period 2014 to June 2020.
From June 2020 to June 2021 we started a path that had it persisted would have landed us on higher prices than we have now.
Is it your position that the Russians were already elevating prices from mid 202 in anticipation of…
Or do you have an other reason to expect that the Russians would have kept prices artificially low?
I mean now during the SMO had EU not applied sanctions (only the US) sure they might – just to make up for other lost profits, but otherwise I do not see why they would.
I would term it uncertainty rather than an expectation of crippling Russian exports, but it comes to about the same so lets just agree that the spike was not so interesting.
Thx for your reply again. Really appreciate it. Unfortunately now the topic has already ‘sunk away’. Have very little time.
Though I have an economic background, I have no knowledge on markets for oil and gas.
In what period? What was the inflation rate in that period and what was the rise of prices of oil and gas in that period? (Of course, that rise forms part of the inflation rate).
Yes, that’s clear from the graphic.
First, the markets for oil and gas are not perfect markets in the economic sense of the concept. I would say they are oligopolies. But OPEC is a cartel. Do you agree?
I don’t know based on what factors russian oil and gas prices are determined. Were they kept artificially low?
We might consider those factors. But that would be too big a topic for me.
In the years 2013, 2014 Russia used the price of gas to Ukraine to influence ukrainian (economic) policies.
Now, I believe Russia sells oil to India for a relatively low price.
That’s about all I know of this.
Agreed.
Good point I should have specified – the period between 2020 and December 2024. So the same period over which I compare the gas price.
Yes gas price going up does skew this, but it should be the same if we use inflation from the US – energy prices in general have been rising so much that we would be at the same level as we were in December 2024.
Yes so the prices are not perfect competition prices, but they are nonetheless 'market' prices in the sense that we (almost all) face the same price.
That is the price to buy oil/gas is the same (before tax etc.) for a US costumer as for an EU customer.
NB In EU we have many fees, taxes etc. on energy which confuses the picture.
https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/green-taxation-0_en
Natural gas (pipeline delivered) could be cheaper (it ought to be the case as it need not be liquified and re-gassified) but as pointed out taxes…
These fees and the tax can be adjusted annually – so the higher prices in EU are not just a consequence of sanctions.
Moreover if we wanted to we could keep prices in check via lowering the taxes and fees – they are ostentatiously there to reduce consumption and make green energy more competitive.
I should at this point add that owing to dunkelflaute in large parts of Germany green energy production has been very low during the last 3 months – so gas storage is fairly low (70%) for this point in the season – hence prices are likely to rise for a period (even beyond inflation I suspect).
I've looked into it and no – I do not believe they were – they reflected the market prices, i.e. Dutch and Norwegian gas were not much more expensive.
And that is rather my point the Russians would be selling their gas at market price, not below.
Hence the only effect that the sanctions have are that prices become more volatile and only higher to the extend that there simply is that much less energy total in the market (i.e. that the Russians cannot sell to other customers).
So the US citizens basically face the same price increase (with a bit less volatility) – as a US producer of gas would opt to export the energy if he can get a better price in EU.
This is as specified somewhat obscured by taxes and fees not to mention fluctuations in green energy production.
The Russians have used gas prices to influence policies in several countries – I did not want to make the case for this myself as it is not easy and I think it is important to be able to clearly show ill intent when making accusations.
Yes facing sanctions Russia has had to sell oil and gas at discount prices to several countries.
What is relevant here is the extent to which Russian oil fails to reach the markets – as that could lead to higher prices for all.
That has not until at least late 2024 been a big problem AFAIK. Russian gas though have largely been removed from the market (not totally by any means).
Thx for your reply again. Really appreciate it. Unfortunately now the topic has already ‘sunk away’. Have very little time.
Though I have an economic background, I have no knowledge on markets for oil and gas.
In what period? What was the inflation rate in that period and what was the rise of prices of oil and gas in that period? (Of course, that rise forms part of the inflation rate).
Yes, that’s clear from the graphic.
First, the markets for oil and gas are not perfect markets in the economic sense of the concept. I would say they are oligopolies. But OPEC is a cartel. Do you agree?
I don’t know based on what factors russian oil and gas prices are determined. Were they kept artificially low?
We might consider those factors. But that would be too big a topic for me.
In the years 2013, 2014 Russia used the price of gas to Ukraine to influence ukrainian (economic) policies.
Now, I believe Russia sells oil to India for a relatively low price.
That’s about all I know of this.
Agreed.
Still giving some thought to some of your points.
Have they?
Neither do I.
Oligopolies and cartels lead to higher prices.
Did Russia keep oil and gas prices below what they could be in an oligopoly or cartel?
And there is another point to make, I think.
(1) Russian gas is cheaper to produce and distribute – through pipelines, when not sabotaged – than LNG from across the Atlantic.
(2) So if that LNG is not higher priced than russian gas (as appears to follow from the graph), either russian gas prices were elevated in some way or transatlantic LNG prices are lowered in some way, or both.
I. e. the Russians kept the price relatively high, not low.
However, I don't have the knowledge to consider this.
Apart from the few cases where they have used cheap (gas primarily) to influence neighbors, I'm not aware that they have sold to anything other than market price.
Yes it is – but that 'win' is not given away i.e. the Russians do not sell gas at so low prices that we could make a living out of re-exporting it.
That is what it being market prices imply – cheaper Russian gas leads to cheaper oil etc. simply by making us use more gas and less oil (or other energy sources).
This is part of why:
Yes the Russians were simply (mostly) selling at market prices. US gas is not artificially lowered they are most certainly selling at market prices).
In short – would we face lower prices if not for the sanctions – yes to the extent that the amounts of Russian gas that does not reach the markets would be able to meet energy demands.
As far as I can see this is primarily a temporary issue – i.e. when we experience e.g. dunkelflaute we get higher prices than we would have had we still been importing Russian gas.
It is a natural consequence of wanting to switch to the less reliable green energy.
Or in other words I do not subscribe to the notion that Putin was on a large scale undermining European economies by getting us hooked on artificially lower energy prices.
We have been doing this to ourselves. Yes Russian gas was cheaper but not by that much.
Look at this graph:
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/energy-prices
(chose maximum period)
You can see that if you extend the price tendency between 2004 and 2012 (or between September 2020 and September 2021) you get to the same level as we were in late 2024.
Your source refers to gas imported into the Netherlands, which means LNG. The gas from Russia is piped gas that costs around 4 times less.
Can you back that up with a source?
Russian gas have not been sold at 4 times less. Not according to any sources I can find the sources I find all show that Russian gas price was indeed following (shadowing) the general gas market price:
https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=russian-natural-gas&months=120#google_vignette
The monthly price in Europe:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/673333/monthly-prices-for-natural-gas-in-the-united-states-and-europe/
From your source that is part of the cabal to cloud the LNG vs piped gas issue. Note that Russia is also a major hydrocarbon producer. Also, read about how LNG is produced and transported.
The average monthly price for natural gas in the United States
amounted to 2.25 nominal U.S. dollars per million British thermal units
(Btu) in September 2024. By contrast, natural gas prices in Europe were
about four times higher than those in the U.S. Prices across the
European continent tend to be notably higher than those in the U.S. as
the latter benefits from being a major hydrocarbon producer.
Russian import dependence results in surging natural gas prices across Europe. European
prices for natural gas rose most notable throughout the second half of
2021 and much of 2022, peaking at over 70 U.S. dollars per million Btu
in August 2022.
Your problem is that gas prices in Europe are not significantly higher than in August 2021.
They have not even followed inflation – I have via several links shown you that prices faced by the end consumer are have not gone up by anything like a factor 4 – they have not even grown as fast as inflation.
Now if you claim that this is the case then provide links to substantiate your claim – otherwise it is as I have shown – while prices temporary went up they are now back in line (actually even below) how prices evolved between September 2020 and September 2021.
And yes these prices are higher than in the US thus in September 2021 the price in the US were 4 times lower than those in Europe – so yes this was the case already before the SMO and is therefore not an artifact of the sanctions.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/673333/monthly-prices-for-natural-gas-in-the-united-states-and-europe/
I knew danes were all smart
At most all except one – Frederiksen.
Are you talking about the costs – of production and distribution – or about prices?
It’s winter in Europe. I hardly heat my house, wear two warm woolen sweaters over each other, sometimes even a coat or a blanket. Have only taken cold showers for almost two years now.
“Unconventional”, “dirty” fossil fuels are shale oil and gas and bitumen oil. (There’s also oil shale – watch out for confusion – but that’s unprofitable to exploit). Those fossil fuels are far more polluting than conventionally produced fossil fuels (though of course those are polluting too).
Ten years ago, C. McGlade & P. Ekins in The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C in the science magazine Nature explained that dirty fossil fuels are a climate disaster (my words).
EU political organs and governments of european countries boycott russian fossil fuels. US regime agents blew up Nord Stream 2 – a climate disaster in itself. Thus they make people and industries in Europe use unconventional fossil fuels from the US and Canada.
Of course they consider their wars, genocide and hegemony more important than the climate catastrophe.
But do those politicians think they can force me to use dirty US and Canadian fossil fuels?
Everybody in Europe knows directly from their own purse how much the cost of energy has gone up. But the EU regime since they are not elected even by a single European citizen, are therefore not accountable to anyone but themselves and so don't give a shit about what the people want or need or think, precisely as Annalena Bearbock had the courtesy to be honest about. Or more probable perhaps forgot to lie about for a moment.
But shale gas and oil are much dirtier and more expensive yeah, but don't worry, to liquify gas, rerout it in ships, keeping it cool and pressurized, to other harbours so that they can relabel the gas originating from Russian to Qatari or Azeri or whatever is convenient and then ship it to Europe to sell at much higher prices is also much more expensive. Russia gets more for the same gas, well not the same, more of it since the gas that went through Ukraine now also has to be liquified. Lots of intermediaries will earn a nice extra sum for the trouble and the European consumer is dutifully going to pay for all of it, adding some extra tax on top of it just for good measure. And not forgetting future generations are going to be paying for it also, because the consequences are partly covered by exploding European debt. I guess the times of northern Europe lecturing southern European countries about fiscal responsibility are safely relegated to the past now.
My house in pole-land is ok
(of course I am on vacation in America so i cant physically check on it) but the temps are ok
Gas is still ok
The fear-mongering from Russia is wild
What do Russians want for 2025.
https://youtu.be/jc_4jOUrJgs?si=1LSAa9rqC-A6TZy4
The Eastern European countries would face more challenges buying gas from neighbors, or the more expensive alternatives from Qatar and US LNG…!
The EU is way ahead of you on figuring out their alternatives.
They'll survive.
But… will Putin survive without the EU market?
I would like to say I sympathize with the leadership of our esteemed European partners in Defending Democracy, but I shall adhere to my newly adopted resolutions for the new year and say, without sarcasm, you just can't fix THE STUPID.
European governments have hitched their wagons (with three exceptions) to Zelensky's star and deserve what they get. That said, my sincere sympathies for the people of Slovakia, Hungary, and Serbia. To the rest, my sympathies – but don't forget to open your wallets and get out your blankets ….
It has been my opinion for many years that while the EU as an economic union was an excellent (though of course, not original) concept, the governing body of the EU and the dysfunctional miasma they represent constitute a cosmic exemplar of abject stupidity – hence the caps in my first paragraph.
Stealing Russian investments and gas. FAFQ!
Ukraine has been stealing 50% of the gas transiting that corrupt mafia zone for decades!
Who is stealing Russian gas?
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/siphon#Verb
Yes still does not clarify which party it is that is supposed to steal (by ‘siphoning’) gas.
I’m aware that the Russians were accusing the Ukrainians of siphoning gas from the pipelines prior to the SMO.
Is it still the case that the Russians are accusing the Ukrainians of this – or is it some new people responsible – all I’m asking is who it is that the original commenter thought were stealing gas – it should not be that hard to be specific.
Yes, well everyone knows it was – and still is – the Portuguese. They always find a way to stay under the radar.
Yes, well everyone knows it was – and still is – the Portuguese. They always find a way to stay under the radar.
Yes, well everyone knows it was – and still is – the Portuguese. They always find a way to stay under the radar.
It is really true, more than half the people on the internet have sub 60 IQ!
Yourself included
The Pollock speaks, HaHa!
No – the IQ score is normally distributed around the median score – the median score defined as 100, that means that people with a sub 60 IQ represent about 2.5% of the population – so for them to be more than half the people on the internet that would mean that less than 5% of the population were on the internet.
Hope that helped.
I rest my case you really do not get it, do you?
You do not have a case – you have made a claim that you have, so far, failed to provide any documentation for.
You have not even been willing to specify whom it is that you think have done what you claim is being done.
So – one unsubstantiated allegation – when asked to specify, you follow up with what we have to assume is an attempt at insulting the person posing the question.
When that fails you rest your case – well that amounts to an admission that you are not able to support your claim with any actual evidence.
So it is the old story of the allegation that Ukraine was siphoning off gas in 2009 – was that so hard to write?
I guess Zelensky has grifted enough for his villa in Miami and that he no longer needs the money from the transit fees.
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/01/i-want-to-remind-you-all.html#disqus_thread
I understand US aircraft carriers being critical targets for Moscow to strike, particularly if they carry nuclear weapons. In a conventional war, they'll quickly be incapacitated with hypersonic missiles.
I'm interested in how Russia will destroy US submarines before they launch Trident II missiles. It must be 'out-of-the-blue' hypersonic missile strikes from Russian assets. Is Russian military technology so advanced for hypersonic missile strikes in deep ocean water—MIRV strikes or otherwise?
Torpedo launches from both navies or two submarines would confirm the Armageddon scenario in its incipient stage.
There's a higher power supporting the Russian people and President Putin. Mister Putin knows it as well.
Spacibo.
I assume that Russia's hypersonic missiles are an attempt to restore MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction). This is a defensive strategy. You seem to be contemplating an offensive strategy. I'm not saying your wrong. But I am saying that ANY nuclear exchange would likely result in the annihilation of both countries.
Russia has the gravitas and missile supremacy to call its response offensive or defensive, depending on the available intel.
When the EU wakes up, there is still one NordStream pipeline that's ready for use. If they ask nicely, Russia would probably agree to turn it on again. Team Biden would be crazy to go back and finish the job.
Ukraine has tried to blackmail both Russia and Europe with this pipeline as far back as 2005. That's probably the main reason for building NordSteam in the first place.
Give it up, that ship has sailed and the EU will not go back to buy gas from Russia. Russia lost its largest gas consumer forever.
EU is moving to other sources and it will be better off and it will be Russia the one that suffer.
Unlikely as the project was planned in 1997 and already well underway by 2005.
Well known fact: Over 50% of gas entering the pipeline from the Russian side is stolen in Ukraine. This decades old and ongoing problem with the mafia government in Ukraine has been a cause of friction.
Looks like China will receive even more gas from Russia.
Hello Europe FAFO!
LOL
SOurce?
Information?
Nothing
Well known fact – this dispute was settled in 2009 – do you have any sources to substantiate that the Russians have made any claims that the Ukrainians were 'again' stealing gas?
Sure as soon as the Russians have built the pipeline or the LNG facilities.
As an apologist for NEOCON Globalists, you are pointless to debate.
More unsubstantiated assertions – we can agree that this is pointless, though I’d say it is mostly because you do not actually debate – you only fling insults and unsubstantiated assertions.