The US and Iraq have reached an understanding on a withdrawal plan that would see the US remove hundreds of troops from Iraq by September 2025, Reuters reported on Friday.
Under the plan, the US would complete the withdrawal by September 2026, but the report said the US could leave a small number of troops in Iraq under a new advisory relationship. The 2,500 troops that are currently in Iraq are deployed under the US-led anti-ISIS coalition.
Sources told Reuters that the plan is completed but still needs final approval from both capitals and an announcement date. “We have an agreement, its now just a question of when to announce it,” a senior US official told the outlet.
Under the plan, the US would remove hundreds of troops from the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq and reduce its presence in Baghdad by September 2025. Over the following year, the US would remove troops from Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan.
The US and Iraq began talks on the future of the US military presence after Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani called for an end to the US-led coalition following an escalation between the US and a group of Iraqi Shia militias, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, which are part of Iraq’s security forces.
Last month, the State Department said that talks with Iraq did not involve discussions about a US withdrawal, signaling that the US was planning to stay. In recent joint statements, the US and Iraq left open the possibility of a continued US military presence as part of a new bilateral security relationship.
A US official told Reuters that the two-year timeline on the withdrawal gives the US “breathing room” to readjust if the situation changes. US officials acknowledged that while the official reason for the US presence is to fight ISIS, it’s also about pushing back against Iran’s influence. US troops in Iraq also support the US occupation of eastern Syria.
Al-Sudani has repeatedly said that Iraqi forces could handle ISIS remnants without the US and other foreign forces. After seven US troops were wounded in a recent raid against ISIS in Iraq, al-Sudani told a US commander that the “remnants of ISIS no longer pose a threat to the Iraqi state.”
Iraq’s government has been under pressure to expel the US since January 2020, when a US drone strike in Baghdad killed Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani and PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. After the strike, the Iraqi parliament voted to expel US forces, but the US refused to leave.
The US has been able to stay in Iraq due to the significant economic leverage it has over the country. Since the 2003 invasion, Iraq’s foreign reserves have been held by the US Federal Reserve, giving Washington control over Baghdad’s dollar supply and the ability to devalue the Iraqi dinar. The US also keeps tight control over Iraq’s ability to pay its neighbor Iran for much-needed electricity.
