Amid concerns about Israel’s onslaught in Gaza escalating into a regional war, the Iranian mission to the UN said Sunday that it would only enter the fighting if Israel attacked Iran.
“Iran’s armed forces will not engage, provided that the Israeli apartheid does not dare to attack Iran, its interests, and nationals. The resistance front can defend itself,” Iran’s UN mission in New York told Reuters.
Also on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned Israel that a ground invasion of Gaza could spark a regional war with “resistance” factions, referring to Hezbollah and Shia militias that operate in Iraq and Syria.
“If the measures aimed at immediately stopping the Israeli attacks that are killing children in the Gaza Strip end in a deadlock, it is highly probable that many other fronts will be opened. This option is not ruled out and this is becoming increasingly more probable,” Amir-Abdollahian told Al Jazeera.
“If the Zionist entity decides to enter Gaza, the resistance leaders will turn it into a graveyard of the occupation soldiers,” he added. On Saturday, Amir-Abdollahian met with Hamas officials in Lebanon and Qatar and also stopped in Iraq and Syria.
Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged some fire on the Israel-Lebanon border, and there have been some casualties, but there’s no sign yet that Hezbollah has decided to launch a major attack. Amir-Abdollahian warned on Saturday that he’s learned of “the scenarios that Hezbollah has put in place” and said that “any step the resistance will take will cause a huge earthquake in the Zionist entity.”
” it is highly probable that many other fronts will be opened”
What other fronts?
Hezbollah is possible. But, what would Hezbollah gain from starting a war? Hezbollah has a strong military force. Why get it ripped apart?
Syria military is so weak that they can not do anything.
Jordan and Egypt have no interests in tangling with Israel.
That leaves Iran. Iran will not start a war with Israel. The risk of USA coming to defense of Israel in this case is too high.
The above assume rational thinking, that does not always happen in this part of the world. So who knows?
“But, what would Hezbollah gain from starting a war?”
Starting? Umm . . . no.
There are limits beyond which Israel will probably not be permitted to go without responses from nations and/or other entities in the region. For some, failure to respond would have very serious negative consequences. Also, of course, at some point, simple decency might require confronting Israel in unmistakable fashion.
Hezbollah has a strong force for reasons that definitely include the possibility of enforcing limits to Israeli misbehavior.
Does your “rational thinking” lead you to imagine that it is rational to permit Israel to remain unopposed as it commits monstrous war crimes?
“There are limits beyond which Israel will probably not be permitted to go without responses from nations and/or other entities in the region” Can you give me an example? I can not see any nation military interfering with Israel operations in Gaza. Which only leaves Hezbollah. Hezbollah is in a strong position, why would they tossed that away in all out war with Israel?
To answer your last question, yes. I am sure countries will not like what Israel is doing, but they will way the cost to stop it and I don’t think any will pay a significant price to stop it. As I said and as Hamas just proved, rational thinking is in short supply there.
Well, time will tell. And it probably won’t take too much time.
I agree completely with you on the time will tell. Sadly, I see the next two months or maybe even longer a very bad time. As Rodney King said “I just want to say – you know – can we, can we all get along? Can we, can we get along? Can we stop making it horrible for the older people and the kids?” A wise man.
What makes you think Hezbollah’s military force will be “ripped apart’? What force would do that? Israel can’t. It can try, but would be destroyed as a nation state doing so.
Neither can the US. It would not only lose prized naval assets (sunk), but suffer massive geopolitical blowback, in particular from the Middle East.
Also, what makes you think that Iran (let alone Hezbollah) is worried about American naval assets on the Eastern Med?
Iran is thousand of miles away & has manouverable hypersonic weapons, a powerful military and very powerful friends. As for Hezbollah, it has 150,000 missiles and is sitting on Israel’s border.
Neither nation is worried about US aircraft carriers on the Med. Their main focus is on destroying Israel, which seems to be in a total mess and highly vulnerable..This time, they may well succeed.
Sampson option.
“What makes you think Hezbollah’s military force will be “ripped apart'”? 40 years of military history study.
Iran knows full well that Israel not only won’t attack it, but can’t. No arab nation will give Israel flyover rights, for starters. Also, Iran can wipe out Israel in seconds with manouverable hypersonic missiles, which Israel doesn’t have and can’t defend against.
Any attack will come from Hezbollah. Hezbollah have said they’ll attack Israel if Israel attempts a ground invasion of Gaza. If Israel are stupid enough to do it, they’ll face a volley of ~10,000-20,000 missiles from Hezbollah that will rain down on Israeli military, nuclear and civil infrastructure – destroying its ability to function as a nation state.
If that volley doesn’t do the job, another 20,000 will. Hezbollah has 150,000 missiles (at least) and that’s before we even start on their drones, and other weapons.
If this kicks off, my bet is that the Americans will stay out of it. In reality they have very limited options. If they attack Hezbollah or Gaza, they risk retaliation from Iran, Russia and China. They will be forever expelled from the Middle East.
Besides this notion that old relics like US aircraft carriers can still create deterrence against major powers is just incorrect, especially if the adversary has hypersonic weapons and advanced offensive missiles/drones.
Biden and his clowns still can’t accept that America has lost the arms race, and is in fact decades behind. The US battle carrier groups are irrelevant, in the age of hypersonic weapons. In fact, they’re sitting ducks out there on the Eastern Med, an easy target for Hezbollah. It was a highly foolish, stupid move for the US to deploy them there, but highly foolish, stupid moves are what Biden & Co specialise in.
So, Israel is snookered. They must urgently de-escalate and negotiate a humbling ceasefire immediately, or its likely over for that nation.
It’s really that stark and simple. Let’s hope wise heads prevail.
Iran is sitting back and playing chess with human lives. They have prepared Hamas for warfare,and gain a propaganda victory if loads of Gaza civilians get killed.If 20,000 Hamas and 5,000 Israelis get killed,Iran wins. Key Hamas leaders and fighters get out through long established smuggling tunnels from Gaza to Egypt-leave stupid patsies to die. They rebuild in 5 or 10 years.Whole Arab war is in an uproar and price for Iran’s petrol goes up.
I am dubious as to Iran’s hypersonic missiles. Hezboallah has plenty of Iranian missiles that can cause tremendous damage to Israel,but after a certain point,Iran gets nuked. So Hezboallah pokes,probes and annoys-people will not want to live in Israel and will move. Russia and China have their own problems. Politics is bad,war is worse.
You’re such an expert…!
Yes!
You are showing you lack of understanding of military technology. For example, Hypersonic missiles are not very good at hitting a moving target like an aircraft carrier. And lunching a volley of 1o,000 missiles not so easy.
Removing the hype from Iran’s ‘hypersonic’ conqueror
https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/military-balance/2023/07/removing-the-hype-from-irans-hypersonic-conqueror/
And given they were just developed in the past few months means they don’t have many of them. Iran’s main arsenal remains the Ghadr variant of the Shahab-3. Out of 3,000 total missiles, Iran has perhaps 500-750 tops that might reach Israel – although many more can hit US assets closer to Iran.
Whereas Hezbollah has an estimated 80,000 new missiles and smart drones. Alastair Crooke claims Hezbollah now has a force of 100,000 soldiers, which surprised even me. But Hezbollah’s power lies in the ability to keep Israelis in bomb shelters 24×7 for months, thus causing the Israeli economy to evaporate.
You are correct, the biggest weakness that Israel has is that Israel is not build for a longer war. They simply don’t have the manpower. I don’t know what Israel’s war plan is against Hezbollah, but I don’t think it will involve just exchanging fire with them.
Huh, yesterday Iran said it would enter if Israel entered Gaza, wonder what changed.
Nothing. Because Iran didn’t say that.
“If the Zionist aggressions do not stop, the hands of all parties in the region are on the trigger”
He was talking about the war spreading.
They are doing a slow moonwalk.
It appears Iran has changed their mind.
https://www.axios.com/2023/10/14/iran-warning-israel-hezbollah-hamas-war-gaza
It should by now be crystal clear to the civilized world that “it’s us or them”. Israel is fighting a war against Islamist murderers who, if they have the chance, will slaughter every Jew…and then every Christian in the world. They have a saying: First comes Saturday (the Sabbath for the Jews) then comes Sunday (for the Christians). Israel will finish off Hamas. It will take time and it will be costly but there is no choice. They are doing the Palestinians of Gaza a favour. Then they will have to deal with Hezbollah. If not now, it will be in 6 months or nine months…I never thought I would say this but the savage cruelty of Hamas displayed on October 7 in some ways even exceeded that of the Nazis. The Nazis and their collaborators murdered millions, but they tried in many ways to hide their crimes. Hamas murders, rapes, mutilates and burns babies, young girls and the elderly, then documents their crimes on the smartphones of their victims and sends videos to their contacts. I have no more words.
It should by now be crystal clear that the intentional incitement of intolerance is being used to start wars. If you look at what has happened since 1948, it will be obvious that Israel doesn’t have any high ground to stand on here.
Intolerance could get us ALL killed.
During 2006, Israel didn’t have much of a stamina against Hezbollah. Even with US backing, they can easily get tagged from multiple sides. What makes this any different?
In 2006 the Israeli public was not behind the war. This time, even those on the far left want Hamas eviscerated. 350,000 reservists have signed up and people are rushing back from across the globe to defend their homes. Completely different
I could be wrong. But I don’t think that Iran has ever attacked Israel since it was formed in 1948. Iran is undoubtedly aware of Israel’s history of provoking wars, then claiming self-defense. And now there are advisors from the east to help manage emotions. Surely they know that Israel and two US aircraft carriers are bating them. So, there is a good chance they won’t do anything rash.