A Ukrainian official said Sunday that Kyiv will begin consultations with Washington this week on the US providing Ukraine with security guarantees.
“We are starting talks with the United States (this) week,” Andriy Yermak, chief of staff for President Volodymyr Zelensky, wrote on Telegram. “Security guarantees for Ukraine will be concrete, long-term obligations ensuring Ukraine’s capacity to defeat and restrain Russian aggression in the future. These will be clearly drafted formats and mechanisms of support.”
The State Department confirmed on Monday that the talks would begin this week. At the recent NATO summit in Vilnius, the US and other G7 nations vowed that they would each begin negotiations on bilateral security deals with Ukraine. Yermak said the idea is for the guarantees to be in effect until “Ukraine secures NATO membership.”
President Biden has publicly floated the idea of an Israel model for Ukraine, which would involve multi-year commitments to provide billions in military aid each year but would not include NATO Article 5-style mutual defense guarantees. Israel receives $3.8 billion in military aid annually under a 10-year memorandum of understanding.
The G7 commitment to Ukraine fell far short of what Zelensky was hoping to get out of the NATO summit. The communique issued by NATO at the summit offered no invitation for Ukraine to join the alliance or a clear timeline on when Kyiv’s membership could happen, which Zelensky called “absurd.” But the US and its allies have made clear they want to support the proxy war against Russia for the long-term, although it’s not clear if the policy is sustainable as NATO is draining its ammunition stockpiles.
NATO draining it’s stockpiles is exactly the point. It’s a dumping ground, like Yemen and Afghanistan.
Everyone is draining, especially Russia. That’s why Putin is deploying all of his defective and antique tanks and is asking North Korea and others for ammo.
In one sense you’re correct. Russia is draining. But not “especially” Russia. Last I checked, and Mearshiemer agrees, Russia is outproducing the west in terms of artillery and missiles.
Now, Lockheed martin has promised to up its missile production to 500 a year, and when they do that, we’ll be outproducing Russia on that front again. But for now, Russia is making more missiles and more artillery.
Of these two, it’s turning out the crucial point is the artillery. Russia is outgunning Ukraine somewhere between 5 times and 10 times more.
And then we talk about man power and the case is even worse for Ukraine.
If we want to compare “drainage” between Russia and the collective west, Russia is losing more men than the west, because the west doesn’t have any boots on the ground, so it’s not really a relevant comparison.
And purchasing ammo from ones allies is no sign of a terminal nation. (did you forget, Ukraine is not only getting some, but all of their ammo from their allies? why is this a knock against russia but not Ukraine?)
“Ukraine is not only getting some, but all of their ammo from their allies?”
Not according to Ukraine. Ukroboronprom is allegedly producing at least a few thousand 122mm and 152mm shells per month for the old Soviet artillery pieces.
But a lot of the existing stock of those rounds was destroyed in GRU sabotage actions from 2014 on, not just in Ukraine but also in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic (Putin seems to have been planning his 2022 land grab attempt far in advance), probably making the conversion to NATO round sizes more attractive.
Congratulations. You have caught me in hyperbole. Of the 210 thousand rounds they’re firing every month, a few thousand are produced inside Ukraine.
It’s exceedingly unlikely that you have any idea how many rounds they’re firing every month, or how many of those rounds come from where.
But yes, it’s a reasonable assumption that the vast majority of those rounds come from outside Ukraine.
If you’re asking whether I claim to be omnipotent, yes I agree, I’m not omnipotent. But the US and Ukraine and Russia seem to agree it’s about 7 thousand a day, 210 thousand a month. I won’t feel bad if it turns out there’s a grand conspiracy to downplay the number of rounds Ukraine is firing just to make me wrong on the internet.
And yet Russia is still losing. Hmmm…
According to whom and by what metric?
According to men lost? not a chance. On a man for man basis and as a proportion of their populations, Russia is winning this war. https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-bakhmut-postmortem
According to land control? The war is in a total stale mate. Ukraine is incapable of pushing the Russians out of the donbas, and crimea is an absolute pipe dream. Best you could claim is that by this metric the war is a draw, worst, Russia is winning, because they’re getting more land, and Ukraine is failing to regain their land.
According to the countries own objectives? Ukraine wants membership in NATO. Not likely to happen now. https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/the-darkness-ahead-where-the-ukraine
And Russia wants Ukraine to be not part of NATO, and it seems like Russia is getting that.
Best you can claim is this war is a stalemate (which it is). But it certainly isn’t Russia losing.
Land being retaken. Sources are numerous but you’ll stuck to your tankie comfort zone. It’s OK. Time will tell and I’ll be correct.
In terms of land being retaken, Ukraine is losing drastically, even by Pro western media. Ukraine started with no control in Crimea and partial control in Donetsk and Luhansk. They have failed to regain control of Crimea. They have completely lost control of Donetsk and Luhansk cities, and the vast majority of their Oblasts too. There is no realistic expectation that Ukraine will gain any more land, and chances are, things are at a stalemate.
Takes a real moron to call a pro western american like myself a tankie. You’ve confused a realistic appraisal of the situation with support for the situation. But I wouldn’t expect more, since you’re obviously an echo chamber for american propaganda.
This Julio character and his lama are kinda lost in fanboyfog.. It’s NATO that is out of 155 mm rounds except cluster rounds. That is why the clusters have appeared, it’s all they have got. They are a lot of little bangs but not BIG BANG items…Not good against dug in fortififcations which the Russians are in now.
Without Russia’s participation, these talks are meaningless. The two losers, talking to each other. Just more PR fluff
The wet dreams about defeating Russia are just wet dreams.
Many years NATO strategists were absolutely sure that in a conventional war Russia would be defeated quick. After the failure of creating an efficient anti-missile system, NATO started the preparation for a conventional war against Russia while taking care not to provoke a big nuclear war. Now it is clear that even if all NATO conventional military forces attack Russia, their chance for success is poor. Putin made it clear in December 2021 that Russia is serious about creating a new security system in Europe. As the negotiations are not working, the new European security system can be created with the help of the military forces.
“Now it is clear that even if all NATO conventional military forces attack Russia,”
In a conventional confrontation, NATO would annihilate Russia within weeks. Anyone who argues this is just completely delusional.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6e69368b7f9523b5b5460033f3e5c1f028f11f047c296845161ed54c9f6c738c.jpg
Weeks? I say it would be DAYS.
Enough people agree with you that we will probably find out next spring,
I do not think it will be fun a few months after the start of the war for anyone.
The southern hemisphere might turn out OK.
While Russia sits helplessly watching some NATO onslaught on its nukes 4000 more powerful than NATO’s….?????? Not likely and Putin has said if there is danger to the state, he will use nukes. So many NATO Gnomes to be made an example of what happens to weak states that mess with Russia. Their hypersonic nukes can take out half of NATO capitols, BEFORE THEY CAN EVEN ATTEMPT TO RESPOND. Russia will not let NATO have a capital standing if push comes to shove with NATO. Is the EU READY to lose all its great cities ton save Zelensky…?????? Get real, there is no chance they will forfeit London, Paris, Rome Lisbon , Madrid, Wein….. Aint going to happen. The hypersonics will make it even worse for NATO…
The crux of the Ukrainian war is the neutering of Russia and an attempt at grabbing natural resouces which are great. The shipping of arms and military material will continue forever. as the bullets get used up or taken from stockpiles that have a lot do do with our debt and deficit . Anything used up can be replaced in a payoff to the MIC.The wishes and hopes of the Ukrainians and Russia have nothing to do with the need for power and profit.
There are signs that Ukrainian population is already tired of this and such a situation can’t last long. Some observers believe it can last one year longer, some are sure, Ukraine will collapse before the winter. Anyway it is clear, neither US nor European members of NATO can do nothing to prevent the defeat of Ukraine.
Where are these “signs”?
Russia can’t defeat Ukraine and you believe they would be able the defeat ALL of NATO? (That’s some serious tankie logic right there!)
UKRAINE IS DEFEATED
Defeated, yet still advancing. That’s an incredible feat.
I had not seen Putin’s proposals. I understand there were 2 alternatives. I think this is one of them. The other might be the same treaty expressed in the Russian language.
https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/?lang=en
Yes, that is the one. It was not just ignored by US but also US pushed Kiev regime to start a big offensive against Donbass republics. Obviously, the strategists in US thought it is a win-win situation for them. If Putin did nothing, the ethnic cleansing and massive massacre of Donbass population would undermine his popularity in Russia drastically. If he respond militarily (as he did), Russia would be ruined by the devastating sanctions and also defeated militarily in Ukraine. As we see it now, it was a great miscalculation. Instead of destroying Russia, US empire is destroying itself.
Similar to what happened in 2014, maybe?
I remember at the time that many “smart” people were quite surprized by the Russian reaction to the Maiden coup and installation of a US lapdog, ethno racist regime in Kiev. Most, as I recall, seemed to think that Putin would just sit back and take it. Others thought that it might goad him into a general war. When neither happened, and instead, Putin’s response was measured, there was much gnashing of teeth! Putin let the Donbas partisans carry the day, and the freight, in their own region, while quickly and effectively securing and annexing Crimea. In a very short time, the West and its puppet regime were confronted with a fait accompli, in which they lost control of two important areas, in terms of economic production and strategic location. Then, they were the ones who had to sit back and take it!
Of course, like Putin, the West is not always adverse to biding its time, and it then (2014 to 2022) patiently transformed the Ukraine’s military into something that at least has a fighting chance against Russia. And provoked Russia into the current operation. Which operation (the SMO) is again not quite the total war that the West perhaps anticipated.
Many years ago… you mean like 2???
I was shocked when US / NATO / Ukraine did not roll through to Crimea last fall. Surprised that the spring offensive did not, and adjusted to the fact that US military weapons are made to produce profit, while Russian military weapons are made to fight military battles.
France / Germany / UK combined spends far more on their military than Russia does. And yet they did not on their own provide enough vehicles, weapons, and ammunition to overwhelm Russia.
To me this idea of security guarantees seems very ironic. The original plan was to mire Russia in a long-lasting and expensive low-intensity war. Now the US wants to chain itself to Ukraine for a long-lasting and expensive Israel-style ‘security guarantee’. Naturally the US will expect to use (continue to use) Ukraine as its pawn in its cold war (not hot yet) against Russia. But still, it looks like the US is the one getting itself mired.
Perhaps I’m missing something in all this?
You’re not. The plan is to sell lots of weapons … the excuse varies over time.
To me this idea of security guarantees seems very ironic. The original plan was to mire Russia in a long-lasting and expensive low-intensity war. Now the US wants to chain itself to Ukraine for a long-lasting and expensive Israel-style ‘security guarantee’. Naturally the US will expect to use (continue to use) Ukraine as its pawn in its cold war (not hot yet) against Russia. But still, it looks like the US is the one getting itself mired.
Perhaps I’m missing something in all this?
The Israel model.
Oh great. An eternal money sink
Yes, but are they not G##@ “chosen people”? Does it not say so in the book they authored?
What evidence is there that the US or NATO can assume “long-term obligations ensuring Ukraine’s capacity to defeat and restrain Russian aggression in the future”? The only country that could provide the guarantees Ukraine needs is Russia.
Exactly, Dan. The “deal” with Israel works because its neighbors are weak and divided. Ukraine’s neighbor, on the other hand, is the strongest regional power with thousands of nukes to boot.
The only deal that would actually hamper Russia would be to provide Ukraine with nukes of its own … the potential for that eventuality may have been what pushed Putin to attack last year and any future moves in that direction would basically be the end of Ukraine.
“Security garantees” are something that would be given prior to Ukraine negotiating with Russia to end this but unless the negotiations would start soon they might be garanteeing stuff that no longer is under Ukrainians’s control.
Hopefully they are considering that and this is a real sign it’s getting close to being over.
The best “security” the Ukraine could achieve is a TOTAL divorce from NATO/USA subservience!
Yes. 100%
and you don’t need the quotes. Removing Anglo-American imperial filth from Ukraine and Europe will provide real security guarantees for entire Eurasia.
No, it will not. The situation around Taiwan is no less dangerous. What makes it even worse, Chinese anti-missile defense is much weaker than Russian one and also Chinese capacity to retaliate is much weaker. At the moment, China badly needs the military alliance with Russia.
So you think Taiwan will be repeating Ukrainian mistakes? Or do you believe Anglo-American imperial parasites will have their war no matter what?
I don’t see any pressing need for military alliance. Existing cooperation within SCO framework is already tight. Both Russian and Chinese DOD heads just met in DPRK.
The military cooperation between China and Russia is developing quite fast. North Korea is also joining the alliance. Maybe it is not yet a real alliance but they are moving in this direction. If China is defeated, Russia gets in a very bad situation. If Russia is defeated, for China it will be even worse. Both Putin and Xi understand very well what is going on. So, in the war around Taiwan, if it happens, Russia can’t just stay aside and watch.
So we’re back to my initial point. Removing Anglo-American parasites from Eurasia is the best security guarantees.
I think both Kremlin and Beijing need to be more aggressive toward Empire of Lies. Playing defense only leads to more casualties. Best way to guarantee global security is to directly threaten core imperial viability. These terrorist rats cannot feel safe at home while staring wars abroad. Punishment must be 10X stronger than the crime.
More aggressive doesn’t necessary mean more efficient. Putin has a lot of patience and it is justified. The world is changing not to the advantage of Anglo-Saxon oligarchy. It is important to pass through this difficult and dangerous time without unnecessary risks.
Yes, his “soft” model does have the potential to be successful. I just don’t have much hope left, atm.
You can’t build a better world where evil remains unpunished. As a monotheist, you should understand that.
The punishment can be different. A spiritual punishment is worse than a physical one.
The survival of the human kind and the continuation of our evolution is more important than the punishment of individuals. We are all sinful. The best what we can do is to try to act reasonably and leave to God to sort out the rest.
Well, my dear Christian. We shall see how your idea of offering the other cheek to be slapped will work out.
Are you orthodox?
So, there is this “God” just waiting to clean up the mess? Didn’t “God” create the mess?
God created the biological life. The biological life is a messy thing anyway.
Also God gave to us the freedom to choose between different options.
Then he is expecting the mess? Giving “free will” to the fallible seemed like a losing proposition. And then I end up in the eternal burn pit if I fuck up? The guy is one sadistic prick.
If I were God, I wouldn’t give a rat’s a$$ what you called me. Remember, you still pay your death and taxes, then I send you to hell. And by the way, I’m the one who created Hillary Clinton and the rest of the Neocons. Enjoy! LOL
Easier to believe the devil created those like Clinton & Nuland who had 5billion of satin’s lucre to make this war…!!!!!!!
I like how you’re shifting the blame, but I created the Devil as well. LOL. Just kidding!
What God “expecting” or not “expecting” is a guesswork. Our knowledge about God is restricted by human capacity. We only know that God created a certain set of rules which made possible our human existence and evolution.
The idea of punishments and rewards after the death is, obviously, developed by Church clergy. It had very much a practical use. How else one can motivate people to obey the rules no matter what?
Our collective punishment is the obliteration of the humankind. Our reward is the survival of the humankind.
“Our knowledge about God is restricted by human capacity.”
In other words, we don’t have a fucking clue whether there is a gOD or not.
The law helps us decide…..!!!!!!!
God is not in the mess cleaning trade
How do you know? You don’t. No one does. I just refuse to pretend for the sake of hedging against hell.
And someone save Ukraine (Kiev) from Blackrock buying them up. The American Conservative: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/blackrock-plots-to-buy-ukraine/
What about security guarantees for American citizens?
Criminals flood ing the southern border and FJB’s regime does nothing.
Why are we guaranteeing anything to these crooks ? How did we become responsible for this corrupt shithole and it’s little Napoleon president ? To hell with Ukraine and the ghouls making money off this war.
Ridiculous propaganda insinuating that Ukraine is a sovereign state capable of making independent decisions. This is a schizophrenic show for brainwashed and gullible slaves within Anglo-American empire. A puppet having a wholesome discussion with a puppet master.
While Ukraine’s policy is heavily influence by America and the west, you cannot claim it is entirely controlled by the west. If the west did not have something to offer, Ukraine wouldn’t do it’s bidding. And that’s just what Zelenskyy probably realized.
If they’re going to be cannon fodder for the west, they might as well get something out of it. And if they don’t get something, then why don’t they surrender right now?
America wants the war to continue, and if peace is threatening to break out in Ukraine, Zelenskyy can use that as a bargaining chip against america. This is what has happened.
What is this “west”? A direction on the compass cannot control anything.
There is a Anglo-American puppet regime in Kiev since 2014. This is simply a fact. Ukraine is not a sovereign country. It isn’t even a vassal state (like Germany or Japan) or an Anglo-American colony. It is much less. It’s a battle field or testing range for the Anglo-American empire.
Yes, America was involved and supported and started the coup that happened in 2014. That does not mean that zelenskyy is mind controlled by Joe biden. He can, at any moment, start negotiating with Russia. Ukraine has allied itself with the west, and it did so because the west supported a coup. But that the current Ukrainian regime came to power through america’s help does not mean they can’t now double cross america.
Is it likely? no. It’s not likely. But why is it unlikely? Because every time the Ukrainians threaten to have peace break out, America will swoop and give Ukraine what they want.
If Ukraine was entirely under Joe Biden’s control, he would gladly require his men to lay down their lives for Ukraine without asking for anything from america. But they don’t. They ask for many things. And america gives it to them. Because if America didn’t, Ukraine would stop fighting overnight.
You don’t need to have mind control over a puppet. You have strings that can be pulled. This is rather basic concept to understand.
Volodimor Ziolenski does not control anything in Ukraine. Not. A. Thing.
He isn’t a puppet like Creepy Joke in White House or lesser Europian versions. Volodimor is a cardboard cut out for the cameras. A propaganda prop.
So what? supposing zelensky is purely a figure head. There are decision makers in Ukraine that demand something in return from america and america acquiesces. Ukraine, whether lead by zelensky or the figment of your imagination, started peace talks with Russia two months after this war started. It made the west panic. Boris Johnson got on a plane pronto to demand Zelensky not negotiate. Ukraine does not act in lockstep with the west.
Now, the west did apply pressure to Ukraine, and Ukraine caved. But the fact that pressure had to be applied prove the point that Ukraine is in fact an independent nation.
Kiev regime is completely dependent on US financially. However, US is not a monolith. Some political forces in US are not interested in Biden’s success. So different people are pulling different strings.
So what? They are currently completely dependent on the US. They could choose to be dependent on russia instead by choosing peace talks. They could choose to be dependent on China, as china has offered this to them.
So, they have choices, and they could choose peace now. But they aren’t. They’re choosing war and america.
It’s a matter of what one wants to think of as “independent”. There should just be a sliding scale since there probably isn’t any such thing as a completely independent nation.
Word itself is pretty self-explanatory. Independent. Without dependence.
And in case of nation states, we’re obviously talking about political independence.
And I was saying that no nation state is independent. There is just “least” and “most”.
Yeah, I know. You’re going out of scope with wider interpretation. Political independence is already confined to specific parameters that isn’t easy to misinterpret. Most defining quality (at least, imo) is the ability to define, defend and serve national interests.
I agree, and that’s my point. Zelenskyy may be incredibly weak and dependent on America. But he isn’t a puppet, and he does have options.
We can all agree, he isn’t likely to use them. But he’s certainly willing to threaten to use them to leverage more from the US.
Z is a great piano player. Does great duets.
Banderites rule Kiev. The U.S. rules the Banderites. All for one and one for all against Russia, China, North Korea. The problem is; we use others to be chopped up into little pieces, and make bank selling weapons that wind up in the black market.
It only makes sense america gives Ukraine some “guarantees”. I understand John Mearshiemers argument about why Ukraine will not in the foreseeable future join NATO, but I did think he went far in claiming they wouldn’t be an ally in some sense.
Ukrainians are getting fed up with America. America kept pressuring them not to negotiate, then they lost more land and hundreds of thousands of men, and America is not giving Ukraine the support they actually need.
I suspect Zelenskyy probably started realizing his place as the cannon fodder and threatened biden to start peace talks if america didn’t get further involved. (if only such a threat had follow through!)
Ukraine will soon be defeated.
This must not become the wedge for US active intervention on the soil of the defeated remnants of Ukraine.
Our neocons just keep doubling down. In the face of total defeat, they must not be allowed to double down again into open US warfare with Russia.
If Ukraine were to be defeated — like you say — I guess they’d have to give back all the territory they’ve taken during their counteroffensive…
All twenty acres…??????
“President Biden has publicly
,
which would involve multi-year commitments to provide billions in
military aid each year but would not include NATO Article 5-style mutual
defense guarantees. Israel receives $3.8 billion in military aid
annually” F*CK NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LOL They can talk all they want but Ukraine is going to be utterly destroyed by the Russian Federation. Russia has made it clear they will not tolerate NATO nukes on their border just as the US would not tolerate Soviet nukes in Cuba circa 1962. When it’s all over but the crying, Ukraine is going to be a failed, dependent “Rump” State without access to the Black Sea.
Much ado about very little. The Israeli model “works” because there is a near unanimous consensus among the decision makers in DC to fund Israel each and every year to the tune of however many billion dollars. The “memo of understanding” underlying the model sets how much the apartheid/fascist/racist/colonial entity is to get annually from the USA over a ten period. Because both parties’ Presidents and Senators and Representatives want to do so, they comply with the memo (and then some).
But they are not actually obligated to do so. And who can say if future Presidents and Congressmen will feel the same way about the Ukraine as they do now, and as they do about Israel? The pro Israeli consensus, while just as despicable, and based on lies, as is the current infatuation with the Ukraine, didn’t just happen overnight, as the latter did. There is no domestic USA political/social/cultural/media/economic infrastruture in place, not on a permanent basis, anyway, to kiss the Urkaine’s butt and shower it with it gifts, from here to eternity, as there is with Israel. The pro Israel “Lobby” was built over a half century or more, and has its ultimate roots in, and derives its ultimate power and staying power from, a strong domestic US interest group. None of that is true with the Ukraine.
The Ukraine, to the USA, is more or less in the same boat as is, say, Slovakia. The difference is that Slovakia now has an Article Five guarantee from the USA, wheras the Ukraine, as it was most painfully reminded just last month, does not. And a “security gurantee” on the “Israeli model” is no guarantee at all. Even a ten year plan for military assistance (which is not remotely the same as a security guarantee) would still be subject to annual, or even more frequent, review by Congress and the President. Tides turn, times change. Other regimes in the past have “enjoyed” US military assistance, for decades at a time. Some of them, like the regimes in Saigan and Kabul, are no longer with us, despite all that US money and all that non binding, rhetorical, US “commitment.”
Moreover, Israel’s ‘threat’ comes from militarily pitiful neighbors.
And once again, Ukraine like many other countries will soon learn, U.S. has a piss poor reputation of keeping promises.
Maybe the Kadyrovites will save the Russians! Hahaha.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1686075256799182850?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1686075256799182850%7Ctwgr%5E225f4f4c8c5766b99355d1f85337281b69899fe0%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2023%2F8%2F1%2F2184628%2F-Ukraine-Update-Putin-doesn-t-need-an-off-ramp-to-end-the-war-He-ll-always-have-is-propaganda
BTW, that video has already been geolocated to be from Begorod, RUSSIA!
The Chechens are staging “war” videos from their safe space. Hahaha. You’re all a f-ing joke!
Slava Ukraini!
Posting links only shows you are exquisitely empty. #Spazzy. #MillennialCannon-fodder.
That’s deep, man. I can tell you’re a real thinker.
Your insecurity shows every time you post a link. It’s almost like you need reassurance from DC that you are saying the right things.