The Washington Post reported Tuesday that US officials believe Ukraine should be launching large-scale assaults against Russia’s defensive lines despite the risk of major losses and are blaming Ukraine’s tactics for the struggling counteroffensive.
The report said that the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive “has generated concerns in the West that the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky may not deliver as powerful a blow as it could.”
The main complaint from the US and other Western countries is that Ukraine is not using “combined arms” tactics, which integrate infantry, armored vehicles, and artillery. Instead, Ukraine is relying on artillery and sending small teams of engineers to clear minefields, which Ukrainian officials say they are doing to prevent unnecessary losses.
The New York Times also reported that the US was frustrated by Ukraine’s caution. The report reads: “Senior US officials in recent weeks had privately expressed frustration that some Ukrainian commanders, exasperated at the slow pace of the initial assault and fearing increased casualties among their ranks, had reverted to old habits — decades of Soviet-style training in artillery barrages — rather than sticking with the Western tactics and pressing harder to breach the Russian defenses.”
Ukrainian troops received combined arms training in NATO countries ahead of the counteroffensive, and the Biden administration wants them to use it. But Ukrainian forces did launch large armored assaults in the first weeks of the counteroffensive, which resulted in heavy losses. According to Times, 20% of all of Ukraine’s weaponry deployed to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed during the first two weeks of the counteroffensive.
Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, has hit back at Western criticism of the counteroffensive, saying NATO would never launch such an assault without air superiority. He’s been demanding that the US and NATO provide US-made F-16 fighter jets, which aren’t expected to arrive until next year.
According to the Post, US officials are privately saying that Western jets won’t make much of a difference due to Russia’s exstensive air defenses. John Kirchhofer, the chief of staff for the US Defense Intelligence Agency, offered a bleak assessment of Ukraine’s prospects at a conference last week, saying that no weapon will be the “holy grail” to help Ukraine “break through.”
Despite the situation on the ground for Ukrainian soldiers, the Biden administration is still pushing for more fighting and shows no interest in a ceasefire or diplomacy. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley insisted on Tuesday that the counteroffensive is not a failure.
“It is far from a failure, in my view. I think that it’s way too early to make that kind of call. I think there’s a lot of fighting left to go,” Milley said. “And I’ll stay with what we’ve said before, this is going to be long, it’s going to be hard, it’s going to be bloody.”
If true, this is pretty shameless stuff, even for the US.
“The main complaint from the US and other Western countries is that Ukraine is not using ‘combined arms’ tactics, which integrate infantry, armored vehicles, and artillery.”
Yeah, it includes those things — in adequate quantity and effectiveness — and it includes air defense and air support. Ukraine has none of the foregoing. Lacking them, Ukraine’s counteroffensive was always destined to fail.
If Western politicos didn’t understand that, their military advisors certainly did. Were they told?
The only territory Ukraine took was the area where Russia shortened its defense line. Since Russia pulled back in those two places —- was always a mystery to me how was that touted as Ukraine success. But this is bow it goes. Declare it a sucess — and so it is.
At this point, armchair generals are trying to lead,
Get some planes in there? Than Russia will start using its aviation. So far Russia is using helicopters in close combat support. Did not hear Ukraine is clamoring for those. They must have them. It seems that MIC wants to sell planes, and samesman Zelenski is obliging.
Oh, Ms Bianca, Things are going vry well for the Russians!
“Russia’s parliament extended the maximum age at which men can be mobilised to serve in the army by at least five years, up to 70.”
Hahaha.
This is the word as I found it from Reuters:
As Putin signs new law on draft, Russia says spring call-up is running as planned
Reuters April 15, 2023
“Russia is currently in the process of calling up 147,000 men aged 18 to 27 between April 1 and July 15 to perform compulsory military service as part of its longstanding twice-yearly conscription cycle. Biryukov
said the first conscripts would be dispatched to “permanent deployment points on the territory of the Russian Federation” from April 20. He emphasised that some people were still entitled to defer their military
service, and said there would be no mass mailings of new electronic summonses to people of conscript age. The current planned cohort of spring conscripts is 12,500 bigger than the 134,500 who were called up this time last year. Conscripts require months of training and Russia has said they will not be sent into war zones in Ukraine, after acknowledging cases where this had happened in the first weeks of the conflict last year.”
Yea, nothing like your buddy Zelensky snatching people off the street to send to the front lines. Nothing evil or desperate about that eh Irrational One. I remember seeing some videos on Youtube showing Ukrainian troops grabbing people off of the street. Of course YouTube got rid of those videos and terminated the accounts of the people putting those politically incorrect videos online. I do see now where the MSM liars are putting a bunch of articles saying that Russia is doing in reality what Ukraine has been doing for a while.
Yes, Empire of Lies basically function on pure propaganda. In all aspects. Propaganda is vital for economic interests of the empire. Eurasian Alliance and Kremlin especially don’t seem to be bothered by “informational victories” of so-called west. This is because they set the narrative and control real events. Propaganda is simply irrelevant in this case.
I wonder what western “military advisors” believe. To hear the inane “analyis” being offered up by the host of “retired generals” on cable news (particularly that imbecile BetrayUs Petraeus) this offensive was “in the bag”; the Russians were done for!
Certainly, they were wrong about every single thing they “analyzed” or “predicted” concerning Afg, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, or Yemen; it’s not hard to believe they are equally as deluded about Ukraine.
The retired-brass “analysts” on TV are performers speaking lines from approved scripts. There’s no way to tell how much of the stories they actually believe. The same is true of the officer-politicians who all want to make it to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, including those who have made it.
At the level of the working analysts, it’s a good bet that they know, and have known, that this half-assed operation is doomed to failure. They probably did tell the bosses, most likely in careful and safe language — being too blunt with unwelcome messages can be harmful to one’s career.
“Generals”. A bunch of talking heads making money flapping their mouths for money. Some the same”Generals” who managed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq for twenty years.
With the U.S. political class, the worst your performance, the more you get promoted. Peter Principle in full view in D.C. Just look at Biden, Yellen, Harris, Milley, Austin, and so on.
“Lacking [“adequate” military power], Ukraine’s counteroffensive was always destined to fail.”
1/ Doesn’t look like “adequate” military power for Ukraine to win is possible in this war.
Why? Because for the Kremlin this is an existential war – militarily, politically – so that, as the US has blown through one materiel red line after another, Russia has matched it.
That is: the ‘we can win with more weapons’ logic ignores that this enemy will ‘see and raise you.’
2/ Even the less stupid neocons grasp this, though in suppressed, parenthetical asides never thought through:
Thus: re how the Russian military quickly ‘counter-escalated’ to neutralize ‘the HIMARS advantage’ that was supposed to turn the tide, one neocon parenthetically added, “(This is how war sometimes evolves: A tactic or technology works until the opponent develops a successful response, at which point a new innovation is required.)” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/21/opinion/21french-ukraine-f16-fighters.html
3/ Upshot? Military measures and counter-measures may keep this a stalemate for years….but…in the end…
…if the US doesn’t blow through a nuclear threshhold…
…this looks like a war of attrition that’ll end when the side with fewer males runs out of ‘biological materiel.’
Perhaps this whole idea to hurt and diminish Russia with Ukraine was absolutely INSANE and unfeasible, What were the true origins of this crazy plan. How did Victoria Nuland get the 5 billion dollars she bragged about and presumably spent to facilitate the 2014 Coup that set the stage for this war? Who were leading players that pushed this dangerous delusion to confront and weaken Russia that ignored or were too stupid to see the potential for nuclear confrontation. It was put into action under. the Obama administration, but Obama is virtually silent on the dangerousness of this conspiracy. What did those pushing this plan think would happen once this plan picked up speed and Russia decided to do whatever was necessary to foil it. So now the perpetrators don’t like that the Ukrainians are getting tired of seeing their country destroyed and tens of thousands of their young men being slaughtered and are losing heart for the battle? I believe this whole CONSPIRACY or PLAN is a crime and those responsible need to go to The Hague to be tried for war crimes. It will never happen but WE Americans should investigate how we find ourselves worrying about nuclear war!!!!!!!
“Who were leading players that pushed this dangerous delusion to
confront and weaken Russia that ignored or were too stupid to see the
potential for nuclear confrontation.”
Absolutely everyone in a position to influence or control US foreign policy since (at least) 1992. See “Wolfowitz Doctrine” and the first 30 minutes of this:
Milley said. “And I’ll stay with what we’ve said before, this is going to be long, it’s going to be hard, it’s going to be bloody.” To what end? Ukraine is being demolished. Untold numbers are being slaughtered. Now cluster bombs will ensure future generations continue to be victims. Russians do not seem deterred. Have superior capability re controlling missiles, drones. More than double the population of Ukraine; economy about 10 times that of Ukraine. US, NATO running out of ammo, armaments, risking nuclear escalation by giving more problematic weaponry. NATO expansion fueled Russian paranoia; Ukraine/US double-dealing on Minsk Agreements assured this, too. The Russian/Ukraine “relationship” is very old and fraught. We are fools to think otherwise.
US forbids efforts at diplomacy; because basically US is pig-ignorant about complexities of European history. In US we are untouched by the war in the Ukraine; media ignores it or relays government-approved version. More important is the Barbie movie. Ukraine war is the elephant in the room; we don’t talk about it, don’t smell it, see it, feel it — ergo, it doesn’t exist. Until the US actually, somehow, has politicians/influencers/media who are knowledgeable about Europe (for one region), it should stay away. Clear out.
In US we are untouched by the war
… Yet.
Austerity is coming.
From what I’m seeing, Russians want more war. Kremlin have been grooming Russian population to fight Ukraine since 2014 and now they are grooming them to fight against the Anglo-American empire. Entire country is on war footing. The imperial parasites really screwed up this time. There will be no recovery from this.
With what/whom? Russians annihilated everything that Anglo-American empire sent to Ukraine and killed majority of AFU militants. Volorimor sending is sick and old men, women and children to front lines. No ammo, no tanks, no aviation. Clearly Pentagon mercs ain’t working out. They either run away or get slaughtered. And Pentagon cowards didn’t even had the guts to put up their M1 Arabums. Washington can send Creepy Joke together with Lindsey if they want to fight so bad.
Sky New ran a peice on mercenaries leaving the Ukraine because of the atrocities they saw.
The “atrocities” consisting of the Russians fighting back and inflicting casualties!
He [who calls himself “Rambo,” LOL!] says the battle to reclaim territory has been horrific. “On ‘zero line’ it’s horror. It’s horror. There is just a genocide. It’s slaughter.
“There are dead people everywhere. Russians dead. Ukrainian people dead…. the biggest problem we get when we’re going into trenches is stepping over all the dead bodies that are already there from the last people [who] went in – that kind of stuff really haunts you.”
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-irish-fighter-rambo-describes-terrifying-russia-tank-chase-all-of-us-were-screaming-12919142
LOL Life is hell for a mercenary who kills for profit …..
The poor dear….
That’s horrifying.
Yeah, war is like that. Who knew? Not “Rambo the Mercenary,” apparently.
I’ve seen it. Overall English propaganda is often simply ridiculous but this is dangerous propaganda insinuating these mercs are allowed to leave. Majority of them are simply killed. I’ve seen videos of some really brutal treatment of these guys. The kinda hate Russians have for English-speaking mercs is hard to describe. They would let go a brigade of Ukrainian neonazi just to kill one English or American merc.
And you are a person who thinks all Westerners are ‘parasites’ whom you don’t even recognize as human.
https://news.antiwar.com/2023/07/17/ukraine-again-bombs-crimean-bridge/#comment-6234650083
So…I assume this site is now becoming a refuge for mentally-disturbed bigots to spread their inhumane bile on hundreds of millions of people they think of as ‘parasites’.
So noted.
Wow. I’m no expert. But you can’t drive Tanks and APC’s into a minefield. You can’t send in infantry on foot, as soon as they get in the open, the Russians will slaughter them. How long has it been since the US fought a peer opponent? WW2? We only beat the Germans because we were bombing their cities and transport lines daily. And they were fighting the Russians at the same time. This has turned into WW1 with drones and missiles. If you can see it on the battlefield, you can kill it.
With a rifle, a machine gun or a shell or a missile.
And WW1 did not turn out well for anyone. It just gave us WW2.
“We only beat Germans because we were bombing their cities and transport lines daily.” Anglo-Saxon offensive against the central European powers started in June 1944 when the outcome of the war was already clear and victorious Red Army moved unstoppable to Berlin. That’s why German resistance in the western front was so lukewarm. It was time when Nazi collaborators were massively migrating from the east to the west under the protection of Anglo-Saxons. Later they were used against Russia again.
Thank you.
History is a set of lies agreed on. Napoleon.
I was just reading something about how the Allies saved the Banderites and Maiden of that day at the end of WW2 and sent them back against the Soviet Union.
General Patton wanted to attack the Soviet Union “while it was weak”, using some German forces. I read that somewhere. Pretty cutthroat since the Soviet Union lost more than 20 million souls defeating the German forces. I have read that the Normandy invasion may not have been necessary. I am sure that would give my father comfort knowing that were he alive now. He was there, never talked about it. Thank goodness he survived. U.S. Army.
Attributing things to Patton is dangerous. IMO. I think he said that after they gave the Soviets Poland, Hungary, Chech ect.
I have my own thoughts about the Normandy Invasion. A stupid waste of good men. The English and American high commands excel at that.
My father survived the Battle of The Bulge. Another Allied fiasco that was only rescued by the bravery and sacrifice of American Grunts.
And the flexible cavalry tactics of Gen. Patton.
Nobody “gave” the Soviets anything. Much less some vague “they.” The Red Army drove the Nazis back and conquered those territories.
Normandy was probably not necessary. Germany was losing but the allies were terefied of the Soviets. Had Hitler teamed up with the UK, US, and France I’m sure they would have helped defeat the USSR.
Capitalists gonna capitalists
link/citation?
Wow. I’m no expert. But…
Then you shouldn’t be offering advice! Gen. Milley, the hero of the War with Panama, is an expert and he says Ukraine is doing just fine…You go Ukraine! Into that minefield – CHARGE!
LOL
Indeed. Thoroughly Modern Milley has the situation well in hand.
If I remember correctly, we killed over 2,000 in Panama. Our man Noriega, became the scapegoat Noriega.
Are ya listening Zelenski??
Reparations, a depression, hyperinflation were responsible for the rise of the political party in Germany that never polled more than 37%. The NAZI party.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/18/ukraine-counteroffensive-world-war-i-ii-western-front-normandy-trench-warfare-strategy-history/
By Raphael S. Cohen,
the director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program at the Rand
Corporation’s Project Air Force, and Gian Gentile, the deputy director of the Rand Corporation’s Army Research Division.
It is not a one on one comparison. I don’t need Rand to tell me that.
Denial.
He trying to compare the Ukraine conflict to Normandy? I read Ernie Pyle’s reporting from the ground with the boys from right after D-day through the Hedgerow country. Think Tank Land really has no clue.
The authors try to make a tired Nazi reference.
Even Rand’s own studies give Ukraine little chance.
It was clear from the beginning that Ukrainian/NATO offensive can’t be successful. The only question was, how much damage they can inflict upon Russian army and Russian civilians. That is why US gave them cluster munitions. Those munitions are particular harmful for the civilian population. Ukraine/NATO army used them massively last year against civilians in Donetsk. Next stage could be chemical, biological weapons or “dirty” nukes. It can change nothing. The outcome of this war is obvious. Whatever damage NATO can inflict on Russia, it will be much less significant than Russian gains. Only big nuclear war can change this scenario.
Works for the Biden administration.Peace lovers not.This war will cost the Democrats the 2024 election but it does not matter which party wins.It is two sides of the same coin.The rich win and the poor die.
The rich have no escape route to a more fun planet B.
Mr. Biden could have been a diplomat back in December, 2021. This whole mess could have been avoided then. Nobel could have been his. He could have allowed negotiations to continue last April, but no, he sent Boris (you cannot tell me Boris thought it up on his own). He will lose the election next year. G-d knows who it will be, but it will not be good. (Kennedy and West will not help things either). A sh*t storm on the horizon, I see.
Why would he give up on something he was salivating over since at least 2014?
“This war will cost the Democrats the 2024 election”
Clearly the Democrats are angling for the opposite: in the US, domestic politics is a big part of the tail that wags the dog of war.
Russiagate – the fabulist story that Democrats used to explain the failure of the repellent lying warmonger Clinton – may have been debunked…
But American Russophobia is the gift that keeps on giving.
So now it’s not Trump and Trumpians that support the Russia that caused Clinton to lose – SO DON’T VOTE FOR TRUMP YA DIRTY RUSSIA-LOVER!…
…now it’s Trump and Trumpians that were pal-sy wal-sy w/Putin…SO DON’T VOTE FOR TRUMP YA DIRTY PUTIN-LOVER!!!
No, no need for nuclear war. Kremlin simply need to be more aggressive against Anglo-American filth. They need to target and exterminate predominate oligarchs and political figures in England and US. Both Kremlin and Beijing have the necessary resources and capabilities to quickly and efficiently decapitate Anglo-American empire. Why this isn’t done?
Jeez…you are one sick dude.
You want to exterminate people.
Get help.
Putin is saving his troops by keeping them in defensive positions while artllery, mines, helicopters, drones, and fighter jets devestate any AFU forces that venture into ‘no man’s land’ before they even engage with RA front-line forces. Once the AFU has expended itself, at the West’s insistance, the RA will have an easy path to join all Russian-speaking Ukrainians into Russia; from Kharkov in the East to Odessa in the West. He has said Western Ukrainian would be better off under the Poles who historically used to control that region along with Latvia.
IF there is anyone left. The fascist regime in Kiev is sending people to the meat grinders specifically from these regions.
This is foolish task. Kremlin is making a huge mistake with this operation. They need to start exterminating the source of aggression, not fighting a defensive war in Europe. Defensive wars are always mean horrific and bloody suffering of the people while the perpetrators of the conflict always remain safe.
US agrees that without air support Ukrainian troops will get demolished. US says send in an all out attack anyways, even though we know it will get demolished.
This is cruel borderline evil. The Ukrainian new tactics have achieved some success. More than the US suggested suicide tactics.
We want to force the Russians to start using tactical nukes.
They will not bother with tactical nukes in Europe. There is no reason at all to poison neighboring lands with radiation when you can simply exterminate the source of aggression. They will go directly for strategic nukes and first targets for Russian nukes are London and Washington.
Borderline evil? Define evil …..
Our F-16s will save the day!
“US agrees that without air support Ukrainian troops will get demolished.”
actually, the article cited a military guy saying even the air support in the works wouldn’t change much…remember?
Yes, lose your soldiers quickly. Go for it Ukraine. Human life be damned!
Life is not important when huge profits for warmongering is on the line
Well described by Major General Smedley Butler in War is a Racket.
LOL. Did you write that in your best Vizzini accent?
I’ve hired you to help me start a war. That’s a prestigious line of work with a long and glorious tradition.
~ Vizzini ~
The audacity of the Biden people, is unbelievable. Life means nothing to them, Ukrainians are cannon fodder. The personal deception and brutality can’t be put in words. The Biden people are Frankenstein monsters. They know the Ukrainians don’t have a chance, they are committing genocide on the Ukrainian people.
100% correct. Neocons are soulless vampires ….
In both parties.
Agreed.
Is there more than one when it comes to war?
Not surprising at all to me. I’ve known this since 2014. These psychopaths aren’t people. Frankenstein monsters are more humane.
The US is saying let you and him.fight.We will.sit back and make scads of money selling and replacing weapons spent in killing your fellow countrymen and Russians.This us nothing kess then a WW1 bloodbath being fought fir the US political objectives.Peace and freedom in Ukraine are a fallacy.
US wants Ukraine to HURRY UP AND DIE!
The goal of the Neocons / MIC is to perpetuate war for as long as possible. They are evil incarnate.
“It is far from a failure, in my view. I think that it’s way too early to make that kind of call. I think there’s a lot of fighting left to go,” Milley said.
Say’s the soon to be, retiree… KMAG YOYO!
Assessments on military strategy and “progress” from any Pentagon source need to be taken in context. These are the same geniuses that for 20 YEARS announced annual “progress” and “success” in Afg and Iraq, who planned the absurd Somalia missions that resulted in the “Blackhawk down” incident, who predicted that “with just a little US support, Saudi Arabia will crush the Houthis”, etc – nothing but lies, mistakes, and failure.
Bottom line, the US military is no more experienced in fighting a “peer war” than anyone else is, and right now is far less experienced or knowledgeable of the difficulties than either Russia or Ukraine, since they’ve actually been doing it.
Further, the idea that with a couple months of “NATO training”, conducted in small groups in over 40 different locations, with no attempt at large scale cohesive unit exercises like we require for brigades at the NTC, and given a disparate hodge-podge of equipment resembling a giant used car lot, we expect the Ukrainian army to be capable of “combined arms operations on a large scale” is absurd.
Milley is the equivalent of a fat, slovenly, out of shape, half drunk fan watching a boxing match, screaming out “boxing advice” to his preferred fighter, who is currently on the ropes, on how to come back and “win this thing”. And he has just about as much credibility.
Sitting at ringside, yelling “thumb him in the eye”, while avoiding the blood splatters.
There can be no “combined arms” operation without overwhelming air superiority. At present, Russia has overwhelming air superiority and armor superiority and manpower superiority and manufacturing superiority. All that’s left now is the rising death count for a war that’s already decided.
From what I have read in Moon of Alabama, Russia is using battle helicopters for ground support. No extensive use of other aircraft. That may change if Kiev begins using the F-16s and other craft that we are “donating”. It will really change if the aircraft sorties cross borders from other countries to attack Russian forces on the ground,like Poland.
That is my understanding of things as well. Thanks for the reply.
And for us to drip just enough weapons into Ukraine that they genocide themselves trying to fight an unwinnable war.
I guess it just doesn’t matter how blunt the US is about allowing Ukrainians to continue to die.
We just gave them banned horror weapons that cause long term illness and injury to civilians living on old battlefields to use on “freeing” their own cities.
Obviously our leaders DGAF about Ukrainian lives. Which of course begs the question: if we’re willing to drive all their people into death or exile and destroy their cities and lands, obviously this war isn’t about their national sovereignty and health. So, what are we doing over there, and how long will it take this time for the idiots to catch on that our nation’s stated goals do not line up with our actions?
A few should be sprinkled around the homes of the men and women representing us who want to do this.
Zombie ~ You might enjoy the book Blood Meridian by the late Cormac McCarthy. What the United States government is doing in Ukraine has been their pattern for a long, long time.
Moon of Alabama did a good piece on this today … Ukraine DID try combined arms attacks at the start of the new offensive in June … it didn’t do jack other than kill large numbers of their soldiers and lose a whole bunch of expensive equipment. That’s why they switched to “mosquito” attacks … which reduce the scale of deaths and equipment loss but don’t achieve anything either.
The perversity of the western abuse of the Ukrainians in this proxy war couldn’t be made more clear than the statements made by the “US officials”. These people are evil.
Zelensky followed every order he got, he sacrificed the Ukrainian people, now the killers are stabbing him in the back. No NATO membership but more death when he should be more grateful as the UK Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace said. What sadistic SOB’s they are, hope they burn in hell for ever.
He’s making bank.
“What sadistic SOB’s they are, hope they burn in hell for ever.”
sorry, “The Bad Sleep Well.”
Amen!
Miley:
“As we publicly said weeks ago, this offensive will be slow, it’ll be difficult, and it’ll come at a high cost. This battle continues as the Ukrainians fight through dense minefields and obstacles while a robust Ukrainian reserve force lies in wait to be committed at the optimal time and place of Ukrainian choosing.”
Ah, the Ukrainians are just holding back for the opportune time. You’d have thought they would already be using that “robust Ukrainian reserve forces” by now. Little did we know that they are just lying in wait.
Unsurprising. That’s been the Russian excuse for their side of the fiasco for more than a year.
And that would probably have merit if it were Russia that was in the midst of a failing counteroffensive. A counteroffensive that so much emphasis was attached to as far as what direction the war would take.
My impression — which could be incorrect — was that the Ukrainians talked down the big counteroffensive for months, saying not to expect too much. They’re trumpeting every minor success as if it’s some kind of major victory, but all the “they’re really gonna kick some ass” seemed to come from armchair warriors in the US.
Their best strategy, if their US/EU/NATO backers will simmer the hell down, is to remain on the defensive as much as possible. The offensive is preferable if you can get momentum, but they can’t — and the Russians haven’t had it since April of 2022, either, and don’t seem like they’re going to magically get it back.
Has it been? Where do you see that? Since pulling back to more defensible positions in November of last year, Russia has been making incremental gains, including Bakhmut, and is even now launching limited offensive actions to take key terrain in the direction of Chasiv Yar while defending against the Ukrainian attacks in Zaporizhe. At present, staying on the defensive while the Ukrainians butt heads against a fortified line in the south, is very much in Russia’s favor, I don’t see that as any “excuse”.
“Where do you see that?”
Ever since the pullback from Kyiv — which I saw as a feint, but which some here said meant the war would be over in a week, until that didn’t happen, then suddenly it was “oh, they MEANT to do that.”
Every time a Russian move doesn’t go well, “ah, they’re just TAKING THEIR TIME.” Eight months to secure Bakhmut? “ah, they’ve just set up a MEAT GRINDER, it’s not that they couldn’t just walk in if they wanted to.”
Every side in every war does its best to write off its delays and failures as part of some clever grand strategy.
Moderator ~ Ret. US Army Colonel Douglas MacGregor has indicated in multiple videos the Russians simply did not think the Ukrainians would stand and fight they way they did in February / March 2022. Evidently, President Putin et. al. thought the Ukrainians would come to the table if a Russian invasion was imminent. The Russians were wrong. At present, it seems the Russians are fighting a defensive war encouraging Ukraine and their NATO backers to wear themselves down. That strategy is working well for the Russians. Time is on their side.
Yes, except that Kiev did come to the negotiating table. And the evidence strongly indicates that formal agreement was nearly achieved — until Kiev’s Western masters shut down the process.
Yes, well-written. I meant before the invasion began. As you stated, in April of 2022 Boris Johnson met with Zelensky to nix the negotiations.
“Time is on their side.”
That’s where we disagree.
If Ukraine’s backers continue to devote even a tiny fraction of their industrial and logistics capacity to supplying Ukraine, and if the Ukrainians will remain largely on the defensive, every day that the war goes one works against Russia’s miniscule capacities in those areas.
So far, Ukraine’s backers have done nothing except scramble to scrounge a hodgepodge of weapons and materiel that is being destroyed, in large numbers and quantities, at an alarming rate. And there’s no indication that it’s likely to have much impact on the course or outcome of the war.
The US has been focused, for decades, on producing wunderwaffen and arms to fight scattered irregulars in the desert. And its entire arms industry (along with the rest of the MIC) is profit-driven.
The opponent, meanwhile, always understanding that its battles will be on its vulnerable borders against large modern armies, has been cranking out boring, conventional weapons, often in quite advanced versions, in very large numbers. When it became clear that this war would be ongoing for quite some time, its state-controlled, purpose-driven MIC went quickly into overdrive.
Even if the US-NATO manages to increase weapons production to the level necessary to bring Ukraine to parity with Russia, it will take a long time — literally years — and the chances that Western populations will support such an effort over time are slim and none.
Thanks for the reply.
Had to fix some things on my properties. Irrigation, electrical and such. All the parts came from overseas. None from the EU, GB, Australia or Japan. 90% came from China.
Ever check industrial production? China produces over half (54%) the worlds steel. The USA about 4.5% The EU about 6% and that’s dropping. Russia is about 4%. How about titanium? Again China produces over half the worlds supply. Japan is next. Then Russia. Neither the EU or the USA make the top 7. But, here’s the thing. What production there is from the USA and EU cannot easily be retasked from domestic use. To increase production would require removal of regulations and state limits on production. Not likely to happen. Skilled workers are not available. Are there even enough to train? Nope.
How about engineers? China has lots of industrial engineers. Russia produces 2.4X per capita as the USA. And again, the insufficient numbers of engineers in the US and EU cannot be retasked easily without causing domestic problems.
The overwhelming industrial strength of NATO and the EU is a fantasy. Russia has the skilled workers, engineers, resources and industrial production. The EU and the USA don’t.
What is your prognostication for how this war will play out, since by your own boasting you are most wise in piercing the fog of war? Speak, O Zarathustra!
Well, let’s go through all of my boasting about how wise I am in piercing the fog of war:
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That said, my prediction remains the same as it has been since the Russian forces blew their shot at decisive victory in the Donbas early on: They will eventually secure Donetsk, Luhansk, and possibly a land corridor to Crimea along the Azov coast, declare “victory” along that line of control, and return to “frozen conflict.” They won’t be able to hold on to Kherson or Zaporzizhia.
Could my prediction be wrong? Of course. And if I see any reason to change it, I will. For now, I’m going with the facts and events as they have unfolded rather than engaging in wishful thinking or waving a giant foam finger and cheering on one or the other of the authoritarian gangs waging this war.
I confess to some disappointment. You led me to believe you had a deeper understanding of these matters than the rest of us. Another illusion put to death.
Have you taken the Kiev government to task? Most of your comments I’ve seen (and that is only upon infrequent occasion) seem to be mostly Russophobic.
Also, you do have a solution to the present conflict?
The next Russophobic comment you see from me will be the first one. And there won’t be a first one.
Nor have I attempted to “lead” you to believe anything, let alone that I have “deeper understanding” than anyone else. Like everyone else here, I have opinions and I express them.
“Have you taken the Kiev government to task?”
Many times.
“Also, you do have a solution to the present conflict?”
Sure: The Russian, Ukrainian, American, et al. people rise up and overthrow their regimes and replace them with nothing.
Will that happen? It seems unlikely. Therefore, there will continue to be wars between regimes, because that’s what regimes do.
I’ll take your word for your taking Kiev to task.
As you acknowledge, your “solution” is no solution.
Do you have any ideas how to get from here to there, beyond something akin to “then a miracle happens”?
There are three ways for the war to end:
We’re not likely to get from here to there.
As to how the war ends, unless there’s an unlikely breakthrough by one side or the other, I expect it to end back in “frozen conflict” with Russia in possession of Donetsk, Luhansk, possibly a land corridor to Crimea along the Azov coast, but probably not with any more than that of Zaporzhizia or Kherson. Probably with both sides declaring “victory” and the Russians declaring a unilateral ceasefire along the aforementioned line of control. The declarations of “victory” will ring hollow for Ukraine (because it will have irretrievably lost the Donbas, and will only have the Russian withdrawal from those last two oblasts to crow about) and for Russia (because it’s outed itself as a third-rate military power that US/EU/NATO remains afraid of because, and only because, it still has its inherited nukes).
I didn’t expect that at the beginning. I expected Russia to deliver the Ukrainians a quick ass-whipping a la Georgia, take the Donbas, shake their finger in Zelenskyy’s face, and tell him to knock it off. But they screwed the pooch and couldn’t get the job done before US/EU/NATO aid started pouring in and their window for that outcome closed. Now it’s just a matter of trying to GTFO while saving some face.
The Russians almost succeeded with their original plan of campaign. Ukraine was ready to sign a peace by the end of March 2022. Then Zelensky got the word from Washington via Boris Johnson, to continue the war. And so it went on. If Zelensky had done the smart thing this war would be over and the Russian plan would have been brilliant.
The Ukrainian offensive that started this June has petered out. There is no more power in its current attacks. Manpower is running low. Support from NATO is proving inadequate and is drying up. Cluster munitions to Ukraine because the regular stuff is in short supply admitted Biden. What more can Ukraine do? There is no victory in sight for Kiev, only Götterdämmerung or capitulation. Meanwhile, Russian strength and military production is expanding. The correlation of forces does not favor either Ukraine or its backers.
Other than the mistakes of the opening months, which Russia began with far too few troops and no real preparatory fires, in the naive assumption that the Ukrainians wouldn’t fight, Russia has gone about the war in a pretty rational, workmanlike manner. They pulled back across the Dniepr, not because of a battlefield failure, but because it was cheaper and easier to hold the east bank, and leave the empty mouths in a largely ruined city to the ukrainians. The withdrawal from Kharkov oblast was similar; they didn;t have enough troops to hold it, so took a toll on the advancing Ukrainians and fell back to defensible positions in Luhansk, which have held pretty steadily against repeated ukrainian attacks since. Then they built up their forces while tying Ukraine’s army down in Bakhmut (using Wagner PMC and volunteer legions, not their regular army) and prepared solid defenses along the rest of the line, which seem to be holding with little difficulty against the “NATO trained army” ukraine has amassed in the interim – while russia continues to increase and train their strategic reserve.
And, while in absolute terms, the west’s resources dramatically outstrip russia’s, the west isn’t going on any kind of war footing; that’s just rhetoric. They need to build munitions plants, which will take time and money; but they can’t get companies to do that unless they commit to long term purchase agreements, and they don’t want to do that; rather, they’ll continue to spend their money on high dollar value crap, which has no role in this conventional conflict. Germany’s “increased defense spending” is a case in point; their actual military is not going to see any substantial increase in fighting power; instead, they are going to buy new “stealth frigates”, enhanced air transport capability, higher salaries, maybe an upgrade of their territorial forces, and speed up the rollout of a few hundred Pumas. That’s not going to really help much at all – it certainly won’t benefit Ukraine. Read Andrew Cockburn’s piece posted today on your site re the US defense budget; what we get, re what we spend, is a travesty; and the idea that “more money” will fill the shortfalls is wishful thinking.
“Ever since the pullback from Kyiv — which I saw as a feint, but which some here said meant the war would be over in a week, until that didn’t happen, then suddenly it was ‘oh, they MEANT to do that.'”
Meant to pull back from Kiev? Russia almost certainly intended to do that. To think otherwise, one would have to believe that the Russian general staff thought they could take a city of three million with a handful of troops. Of course they didn’t think that.
“Eight months to secure Bakhmut? ‘ah, they’ve just set up a MEAT GRINDER, it’s not that they couldn’t just walk in if they wanted to.'”
It really should be obvious that Russia (since last fall’s partial mobilization) could just walk in to Bakhmut, or any Ukrainian town or medium-size city (after brutal “preparation” of the target), if it wanted to. There are easily-understood reasons why it might not want to, but we can’t, of course, be certain what they are.
To decide that the fact that Russia hasn’t done that means that Russia can’t do it is sloppy reasoning. It assumes that you know more than we can know about Russian intentions and plans. And it suggests that you are ignoring what is easily-known about the size and capabilities of Russian forces.
“Every side in every war does its best to write off its delays and failures as part of some clever grand strategy.”
Where has Russia done that in this war?
Good comment. Clearly, Russia is fighting a defensive war. I suspect the Russians are facing a terrible conundrum caused by the US / NATO. If Russia continues the status quo, the war could last 20 years or more. On-the-other-hand, a massive Russian offensive would kill tens-of-thousands of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers plus enormous casualties, misery and suffering for Ukrainian civilians. When the filthy American / European Neocons – pure, incarnate evil – and the MIC decide no more money is to be made via the Ukraine killing grounds they will waltz away and blame every bad thing on Russia and Ukraine.
I’ve already pointed out two examples where they’ve done that.
If you think that Putin expected this war to last 16 months with no end in sight, that thing you’re doing that you think is thinking isn’t.
“I’ve already pointed out two examples where they’ve done that.”
You have? I must have missed it. Where did you do that?
“If you think that Putin expected this war to last 16 months with no end in sight . . .”
Did you see me say or imply anything like that? No you didn’t; you’re making shit up. That’s not even a credible straw man.
Do better.
Have you considered a remedial reading course?
You’re not doing very well here, Mr. Knapp. Your posts are starting to look like those of the most idiotic, Russophobic cheerleaders of US-NATO propaganda.
Where are those examples you claim you’ve pointed out? Please be specific.
You replied to them by either not understanding they were examples, or pretending they weren’t examples.
I don’t have a strong opinion on which one, but if you don’t read well, pointing to what I wrote won’t do you any more good than it did when I wrote it, and if you’re pretending, pointing to what I wrote won’t cause you to stop pretending.
Translation: Mr. Knapp wants to play stupid games rather than engage in serious exchange. Well, whatever floats your boat, I guess.
You asked for examples. I gave you two (Kyiv and Bakhmut). You either don’t understand that they’re examples, or are pretending to not understand that they’re examples. So what else is there to talk about on that?
In 16 months, they have yet to accomplish the two-week job of securing the Donbas, and it’s not because they have a super-secret master plan that involves just pretending the thing turned into a fiasco on them. It’s because the thing turned into a fiasco on them.
“You asked for examples. I gave you two (Kyiv and Bakhmut). You either don’t understand that they’re examples, or are pretending to not
understand that they’re examples.”
Ah. You’re right, I don’t understand those as examples. Rather, I don’t think they are in any way examples that support your claim.
I think the truth is that you imagine that those are examples of your claim that, “Every side in every war does its best to write off its delays and failures as part of some clever grand strategy.”
Your logical failure is that your claim is based on your imagining that you know what Russia’s intentions were in those operations. You do not know. You cannot know.
Further, even if Russia intended, in both of those cases, to achieve outcomes very different from those that actually manifested, I’m unaware that the Russian leadership has, in either case, attempted to “write off its delays and failures as part of some clever grand strategy.” I don’t think that has happened. If you do, tell us where to find the Russian claim.
If you’ve lost the NYT…..
Everyone involved in this war are evil beyond compare.
Amen!
So you believe Americans are evil by not taking up arms against terrorist regime in Washington?
Actually…
I’m not going to answer that because the truth would get me on some list within our super evil fascist government.
Sure, it’s easy to bark orders to take on a super power. Maybe US needs to demonstrate to Ukraine how it’s done?
The developing concern ought to be the new Russian offensive opening at the north end of the line.
Ukraine is shifting its forces north to meet that. Ukraine has said this one Russian operation alone has twice the power Ukraine had for its whole counteroffensive.
Ukraine has claimed this Russian operational group is 100,000 men with 900 tanks, which is almost exactly twice what Ukraine had assembled for its own counterattack, before losing 30% of that in the first month of its counteroffensive.
Now Ukraine’s new Leopard tanks are reported on trains to the north, shifting from counteroffensive in the south to stopping the Russians in the north.
This is no longer just Ukraine having an initiative to attack as much or as little as it likes wherever it chooses.
Yes, that appears to be the case.
It’s getting harder for the US-NATO and their stenographers to ignore reality every day (and a few more are accepting reality every day).
The Westerners who cynically schemed to arrange this disaster, and the cheerleaders encouraging Ukraine to continue sacrificing its land and people in service to the US goal of weakening Russia (some are here and they know who they are), have a lot of blood on their hands.
Yeah what’s wrong with you Ukraine. Have more of your men uselessly killed in the Russian occupied battlefield meat grinder. Does it matter your men are woefully under armed to fight that battle? Get on it! Love NATO. lol
“Bradley Square”, a graveyard in Zaporizhia for dozens of tanks and scores of armored vehicles, illustrates the blinkered ignorance of these “Senior US Officials” who think they know more about fighting a war than the generals who are actually charged with fighting it.
People were saying, long before I was willing to admit it, that Biden intends to fight this war to the last Ukrainian. But at this point, there is absolutely no doubt that this is his plan.
Tanks without air cover, without air defense, and with outgunned artillery, are not likely to break through Russian defense-in-depth fortifications?
You don’t say! And yet the Ukies barked, begged and pleaded for tanks! With Zelensky barking the loudest. Well, you wanted tanks, you got tanks. But they come with strings attached. Namely, that you have to use them to attack the Russians and try to retake your alleged “national territory.” That’s what the war is all about, right?
I don’t hear the Ukies saying that they are ready to pack it in. To make a deal with the Russians. Rather, they want more and more. First they wanted artillery. Then they wanted missiles. Then they wanted tanks. They got all that. Now they want jets.
The truth is that no matter what the West sends the Ukies, they will never have more, better, or better trained of whatever that is than the Russians have. They should tell NATO that enough is enough, and make a deal with the Russians. Too bad if NATO doesn’t like it.
Reminds me of a Dr Who episode, where The Master said – Come on you worthless poltroons, do something !! And then pressed a few buttons to send new time-displaced soldiers into combat.
To me the relevant quote is from Shrek, when Lord Farquad sends his knights on a mission – “some of you may die; but that is a price I am willing to pay”!
Yea, this is looking more and more like a global conflict waiting to ignite. Won’t take much from here on out to get in going. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/wheat-prices-soar-russia-considers-ships-heading-ukraine-carriers-military-cargo
NATO has already lost; 455 Aircraft, 242 helicopters, 5090 UAV’s, 426 Anti Aircraft systems, 10740 tanks inc. APC’s, 1139 multiple rocket launchers, 5504 rocket launchers and 11735 military automotive equipment.
There is a strategic need for Russia to fight NATO in a war of attrition. Russia will grind down NATO nations until it becomes existential to them. And then sue for peace on Russia’s terms. War crimes tribunals will be a part of that surrender.
No elections, forced gunpoint conscription, anti retreat troops, book burning, banning of free speech, looting of churches, arresting church leaders, government death hit lists, mass murder of civilians, ethnic cleansing campaigns, assassination of peace negotiators, bombing of Nuclear power stations, bio weapons labs, destruction of Europe’s energy infrastructure, terrorism, kidnapping, rape, torture, massive human rights abuses etc etc etc.
So far Ukraine lost everything, nothing will change that, the USA managed the destruction of the German and EU economies, in so far the US won while cutting their own nose and destroying global economies with sanctions and weaponizing energy and financial markets. Russia is paying a high price to secure their boarder.
Most likely the results of US insanity will hit the Biden neocons and the nation smack in their faces by the next election.
The word evil pops up quite a bit these days but I can’t think of anything more evil then what the US is doing in Ukraine, sending hundreds of thousands of innocent people to their deaths rather then admit their mistake. How do these merchants of death sleep at night and where does the madness end? Are they blind ? Russia cannot loose this fight and will fight till the bitter end, all the US can do is kill more people and for what, pure evil man pure evil.
US Pressuring Ukraine to Die Harder in Counteroffensive