Senior Ukrainian officials fear their coming counteroffensive will not live up to the expectations of Kyiv’s Western backers, The Washington Post reported on Saturday.
“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” said Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. “Most people are … waiting for something huge.”
One of the Pentagon documents that appeared online as part of the Discord leaks was a US assessment from February that showed the US did not believe Ukraine could regain significant territory. POLITICO reported on April 24 that current assessments say something similar.
But Western officials are still insisting that Ukraine has what it needs to retake territory from Russia this spring. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that Kyiv is capable despite what the Discord leaks revealed.
Reznikov said Kyiv’s Western backers have said they need an example of “a success because we need to show it to our people,” as a Ukrainian failure would not bode well for rallying more military assistance for Kyiv. “But I cannot tell you what the scale of this success would be. Ten kilometers, 30 kilometers, 100 kilometers, 200 kilometers?” said Reznikov.
Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs and staunch supporter of arming Ukraine, has said future aid hinges on the counteroffensive. “If Ukraine is successful in the eyes of the American people and the world, I think it will be a game-changer for continued support. If they are not, that will also have an impact, in a negative way, though,” McCaul said last week.
Reznikov and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Post that they were still preparing for the counteroffensive. Zelensky said they will be ready to launch the assault “as soon as the weapons that were agreed with our partners are filled.”
Reznikov said the “first assault formation” is more than 90% prepared but some troops are still receiving training in other countries. The looming counteroffensive is expected to be focused on the south as an attempt to sever the land bridge Russia has secured to Crimea.
The criminality of the US in prolonging this war is unspeakable. US citizens, while suffering financially (and morally!), are 4000 miles away from the blood-soaked ground where humans are slaughtering one another. However, as US politics is the center pole in this country, I’m sure the Democratic Party will do virtually anything to keep the war going as the issue on which Biden can conceivably be re-elected (“folks, it’s for democracy!” “the rules of international order!” — which very sadly many people still fall for).
You would blame an earthquake on US.
Do you have anything to say about Russia who invaded Ukraine and is still attacking and taking land from it for the last 15 months?
Clearly there aint gonna be a counter-offensive…
Nothing is clear. The mud is drying out. Favorable conditions for strong advances are coming up.
Everything is static… until it is not.
They can’t do it, so they are trying to find a way out by “lowering expectations.”
The West can’t continue to supply them, and so they are trying to find a way out of the war (something to blame).
Nobody can admit these things, so they loudly and constantly proclaim their imminent victory, even as they prepare to run. Looks like the last days of Afghanistan, for those with even a slight memory.
It certainly appears they are moving large formations to the front for an attack, however it shouldn’t be discounted that one of the reasons for all the talk about an offensive is to keep Russia from massing their troops in one location, for their own offensive.
If Russia believes that Ukraine is about to go on the offensive they won’t want to commit large forces to an offensive of their own, they will need the mobility to move troops to whatever possible area the Ukrainians choose to attack from. Furthermore, Ukraine can attack on several fronts, while only one or two of them might be the main focus and Russia will not know for sure which are which until even more forces are moved, to those individual front lines.
All this talk about a big Ukrainian offensive could be true, it could also be used to keep Russia from going on the offensive themselves, in fact I’m sure it has been. It keeps Russia from committing too many troops to one front and it forced them keep reserves and to remain mobile in case of a breakthrough.
It could also scare Russia enough to the point that they abandon part of the occupied land without a fight like in the case of Kherson city and Kharkiv.
The Russians are ready. If we do NOT have large formations ready to go, we will get creamed.
Both sides have had 6 months to prepare for this. The conflict is about to move a couple more notches away from being a SMO and towards being a Shock and Awe war.
We fought hard to get exactly this situation with careful provocations. Now is put up or shut up time.
CNN’s war propaganda and information operations, only able to put out stories framing Russia as weak and in disarray and Ukraine capable and determined, will make it impossible to explain why Ukraine’s forces cannot advance. Pivot asap CNN to “we’ve been lying to you for years.”
There has been talk on Napolitano’s show and elsewhere that the stalemate doesn’t favor Ukraine because there is a distinct possibilty of collapse and a rapid Russian advancement given the degration of the Russian military has been hugely exagerated.
Perhaps this slight sharing of honesty is a sign the Ukrainians will be willing to talk after the great Spring offence that they acknowledge isn’t going to go as well as Washington and Brussels tell us it will.
“Stalemate” is the US best case, to avoid losing. It is unavoidable, so the talk is nonsense.
They better get that stalemate down on paper because if one side falls from exhaustion it likely won’t be the one with the much larger resources.
Promises about arms shipments are one thing but actual factories that can make them is another.
Sounds kind of crass. Put up a good show and the spigot stays open. Fail, oh well. Either way, what follows won’t be pretty.
attn Thomas Knapp = being a moderator, do you have the ability to unblock someone that i previously blocked?
No — only you can unblock people you’ve blocked. You can do that at: https://disqus.com/home/settings/blocking/
thanks. there is a giant list of people that i have supposedly blocked – every one of them is a woman except for the one guy that i wanted to unblock. i never actually blocked any of them except that one.