An unnamed US official told Defense One that most Russian warplanes firing on Ukraine are doing so from inside Russian airspace. The official claims that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day and is mostly launching long-range missiles from its airspace.
In comparison, the US official said Ukraine, which has 56 operational warplanes, has been flying between five and 10 sorties on average each day. The official said Ukraine is avoiding flying frequent sorties because Russia’s surface-to-air missiles, known as SAMs, can shoot down planes in all areas of Ukraine.
The official said Russia has shown “a general risk aversion and a cautiousness in the air” despite its country-wide SAMs coverage. Ukraine has some air defenses of its own, and the US and its NATO allies are working to bolster them.
If the US official’s assessment of the situation is correct, it highlights the danger of the US and NATO imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pleading with the West to “close the sky” over Ukraine even though it would mean direct fighting between the US and Russia, which could quickly spiral into nuclear war.
Hawks in the US have called on the Biden administration to impose a “limited” no-fly zone in Ukraine. But since Russian warplanes and SAMs can hit targets across the country from inside Russia, a “limited” no-fly zone is impossible.
In order to impose a no-fly zone, the US and NATO would need to shoot down the Russian warplanes that are operating inside Russian airspace and would have to take out Russia’s SAMs and other air defenses. There’s no way a no-fly zone could be “limited” or not involve the US directly entering the war.
I question that Ukraine has 56 operational aircraft, although he didn’t specify how many of those are fighters or bombers. I also wonder where they are flying from. Supposedly only fighter fled to Poland the first day. 90 percent of Ukrainian airfields were put out of action, with two more yesterday. So where are they flying from? Civilian airfields?
It makes sense for Russia to not bother entering Ukraine airspace with their jets in the absence of need. Most of the Russian columns are protected from Ukrainian close air support by Pantsir and other systems that move with the columns. This is why Russia is shooting down helicopters and drones regularly. For the rest of the time, the jets are just used to fire missiles at specific ground targets out of range of the Russian artillery. Eventually the last Ukrainian AD facility will be out of action, and then Russian jets can safely enter Ukrainian airspace (except for the odd Stinger missile which can be deflected by anti-missile defenses.)
All politics aside, it’s fascinating that technology is now so advanced that firing from planes within your own airspace is more efficient than firing with artillery inside the war zone.
A few of their Cessna 152 trainers escaped the initial push and dispersed to a lot of rear areas…
With no-fly zone also send lots of body bags…!
So, Russia flies 20-40 times more sorties than Ukraine’s coup regime per day, and has advanced long-range missiles. The coupsters have old Soviet-era planes that have to watch out for Russian SAMs that reach all of Ukraine.
And for this we hear “Ukraine is fighting Russia in the air! Russia doesn’t have air superiority! Proof that Russia isn’t winning!”
Russia should just declare a No Fly Zone and the S-400 could go to town.
Let’s Go Brandon!
They are saving that for NATO border regions that host encampments of enemy fighters in “sanctuary.”
And the numbers of destroyed Ukrainian military assets just keeps growing… From The Saker;
Russian MOD: Early morning update
https://t.me/mod_russia_en/142
Video: Maj.-Gen. Igor Konashenkov – Spox
Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry
Units of the People’s Militia of the Donetsk Republic, with the
fire support of the Russian Armed Forces, took control of Valerianovka,
Zeleny Gai and blocked Novoandreevka from the south and east. The
advance was 9 kilometers.
The grouping of troops of the Lugansk People’s Republic,
continuing offensive operations, took control of Surovtsevka,
Schedrischevo, Zhitlovka and blocked Rubezhnoe. The advance was 6
kilometers.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, continuing the
offensive on a broad front, reached Novodonetskoe, Novomayorskoe and
Pavlovka. The advance was 21 kilometers.
On the morning of March 12, high-precision long-range weapons attacked Ukraine’s military infrastructure.
The military airfield in Vasylkov and the Main Centre of Radio and
Electronic Intelligence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Brovory have
been disabled.
During the day, Russian aviation and military air defence shot
down 5 unmanned aerial vehicles, including 2 Bayraktar TB-2 and 1
Tochka-U tactical missile.
Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 145 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Including: 3 anti-aircraft missile systems, 8 command posts and
communication centres, 5 ammunition and fuel depots, 78 areas of
military equipment concentration.
In total, during the operation, 3,491 objects of the military infrastructure of Ukraine were disabled.
Destroyed: 123 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,127 tanks and other
armored combat vehicles, 115 multiple launch rocket systems, 423 field
artillery guns and mortars, 934 units of special military vehicles.
“An unnamed US official told …”
Riiiight!
First and foremost remember that most of what you hear is propaganda in one form or another:, false, a lie, a fabrication, or some kind of partisan brain fart.
We’re at peak information war. I’ve never seen anything like it.
Same here… That is why I stick with Russian analysis primarily as it tracks with all the reading I have done over the years on their military capabilities.
There are a few western writers however, that are worth reading such as Colonel Andrew Bacevich at the Quincy Institute.
I try to read the lies of both sides, since each reveals some of itself and some of the other. Lies can be revealing in themselves.
The US is a a joke in ALL war theaters…always has been. Russia is not worried in the slightest having witnessed Uncle Sam fumbling and screwing themselves in every conflict they create. Try the no fly zone Uncle Sam and watch your butt get kicked by a real power…
Ukraine’s airspace is densely covered by advanced air defense systems. This was never true of the places routinely bombed by the US.
The Russians display a wariness of their own systems, both those run by themselves (IFF issues) and those run by Ukraine (legacy systems).
The Russians may also be holding back their own ideas for the defeat of their own systems in Ukraine’s hands, as something they do not want known. While the US and Israel seem to have some very effective ideas about that, the Russians may be wary of adding more of their own ideas to the mix.
I don’t think anybody knows exactly what’s going on,
I believe nothing I read,
Yet you still read?
Like, investigating suspect to assessing the lies to find out the Truth.
There is no alternative news,they won’t allow their side of story although in war both sides won’t tel the truth.. Now, we are allowed to read what western media wanted to us read.
” which has 56 operational warplanes”
What does that include?
Wikipedia reports Ukraine having 98 combat aircraft, 47 trainers/light-attack aircraft, 3 reconnaissance aircraft, 30 military transport aircraft, and 15 helicopters.
Presumably the ones not shot down since Wikipedia was last updated?
Before you listen to MSM propaganda, might want to read this article from a guy who used to write US military press articles… The two profiles below appear to be for the same guy.
The War in Ukraine is a War on Our Minds
March 11, 2022 by Ian Kummer
https://readingjunkie.com/2022/03/11/the-war-in-ukraine-is-a-war-on-our-minds/
As “limited” as “unbelievably small US strike against Syria.”
https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/09/john-kerry-promises-unbelievably-small-u-s-strike-against-syria
A strike so “unbelievably small” that the US ran out of bombs to drop on Syria: https://www.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/air-force-20000-bombs-missiles-isis/index.html
If true, smartest move ever. Why lose good pilots and fighter jets over Ukraine? Russia has already graphed the entire country and all short range missiles can hit any of the targets.