On Tuesday, Russia’s lower house of parliament, known as the State Duma, ratified treaties with the breakaway Donbas republics of Donetsk and Luhansk (DPR and LPR), which allow Moscow to build military bases in the territories.
Separately, Russia’s upper house, known as the Federation Council, approved President Vladimir Putin’s request to deploy troops abroad, giving him the green light to send forces into the Donbas what he says will be a “peacekeeping” mission.
Putin ordered the deployment into Donbas on Monday but said Tuesday that the troops wouldn’t be sent in right away. “I haven’t said that the troops will go there right now,” he said, according to The Associated Press. “It’s impossible to forecast a specific pattern of action –- it will depend on a concrete situation as it takes shape on the ground.”
Putin also clarified that Russia has recognized the DPR’s and LPR’s territorial claims in the Donbas, which includes territory controlled by the Ukrainian government. At this point, it’s not clear if the Russian troops will try to push back Ukrainian forces out of the Donbas region entirely or if they will stay at the line of control established by the Minsk agreements.
Source: Goran tek-en, via Wikimedia Commons
The Donbas separatists renewed calls for Russian recognition and military assistance amid a spike of ceasefire violations along the line of control, and it doesn’t appear that the violence has slowed.
The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) issued a daily report on February 22nd. It said in the previous 24 hours, the OSCE recorded 703 ceasefire violations in Donetsk and 1,224 violations in Luhansk.
At this point, there’s no actual evidence of Russian troops entering Donbass in any significant numbers. What is likely to happen is that the LDPR will order Ukraine to remove its forces from the Donbass areas they control, which will result in all-out war as Zelensky has already refused that a priori. Then the LDPR will request Russian assistance. What form this will take is unclear, but will undoubtedly be effective. Then the question becomes: Will Russia suppress the Ukraine military in general or not? Will Russia, following its military doctrine, suppress the Ukraine regime in Kiev as the “command and control” element?
I have no desire to be repetitive but this question is uppermost in my mind… Is there any possibility that Russia’s moves will come into conflict with NATO and possibly takes us into a war?….
Russia is already in conflict with NATO (U.S.). The current situation is the result of a breach by NATO (U.S.) of the agreement (of which notes have been found verifying) that NATO (U.S.) would not move its missiles “one inch East”. The final straw was the 2014 coup, which led to the installation of Banderites in the Ukraine government.
Well said…
Doubtful. The US and NATO know from the war games they’ve conducted in recent years that NATO has no chance against Russia. And the US won’t intervene because that would raise the stakes to include nuclear war. You can’t profit from war if your military arms manufacturers are all glowing in the dark. Of course, anything is possible, but escalation to WWIII is less probable.
As expected…It’s on now.
Pepe Escobar @RealPepeEscobar
The Baby Twins have officially asked the Kremlin for military support to expel the NATO-backed Ukro bombing-and-shelling forces from Donbass.
1:42 PM · Feb 23, 2022
Kremlin Says Ukraine Rebels Have Asked Russia for ‘Help’ Against Kyiv
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/23/kremlin-says-ukraine-rebels-have-asked-russia-for-help-against-kyiv-a76548
I’ve seen a copy of the letter on Twitter – albeit it was in Russian, so I have no idea what it says.
This means Russia will now directly enter the conflict with whatever force is necessary to expel Ukrainian troops from the entire area of the Donestk and Luhansk regions.