On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to formally recognize the independence of the two breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, known as the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.
The decree reads: “I deem it necessary to make a decision that should have been made a long time ago to immediately recognize the Donetsk (DPR) and Lugansk (LPR) People’s Republics.”
Earlier, the Kremlin said Putin informed the leaders of Germany and France of his plans. “The Russian president said that he plans to sign a corresponding decree in the near future,” the Kremlin said.
According to the Kremlin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron “expressed disappointment” over the plan but also “expressed their readiness to continue contacts.”
The DPR and LPR separatists don’t control all the territory they claim in the Donbas and have been asking Russia for military assistance. It’s not clear at this point if the recognition means Russia is going to intervene.
The recognition of the DPR and LPR means Russia’s withdrawal from the Minsk agreements, which were signed in 2014 and 2015 to establish the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. The Minsk accords were signed in talks brokered by France and Germany.
Under the Minsk agreements, Ukraine agreed to cede some autonomy to the DPR and LPR. Russia has grown increasingly frustrated over the fact that Kyiv hasn’t fulfilled its end of the agreement.
Source: Goran tek-en, via Wikimedia Commons
Earlier in the day, Putin convened a meeting of Russia’s Security Council, where top officials argued in favor of the recognition, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Earlier this month, Russia’s State Duma passed a resolution asking Putin to recognize the DPR and LPR.
DPR and LPR officials made a renewed request for recognition amid a spike of violence in eastern Ukraine. On February 19th, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) recorded 591 ceasefire violations in the Donetsk region and 975 ceasefire violations in the Luhansk region.
The DPR and LPR first declared independence from Kyiv after the US-backed coup in 2014. Not long after the coup, the separatists asked to join the Russian Federation, but Putin said no.
Good news in DPR & LPR but not for joe b. and gang and I don’t care about them.
What are we seeing: This is an adaptation. Biden/press alliance
beatening the ‘war is coming drums’ for so long has had a consequence. We live in a video age: the sounds of motar (small sized artillery) & machine gun fire by the residents on the line of contact is not being faked. If this adaptation is or is not to Russia’s advantage: we don’t know.
Putin needs to get this to the UNSC for a debate
There is nothing to debate. The decision has been made.
Agreed. However, there will no doubt be a UNSC meeting over this. Nothing will come of it since Russia and China both have veto power.
UNSC can be useful in setting up peacekerling.
But Buden and NATO are pissed off, as the invasion happened without a bullet fired. And will not think rationally, If they adopt a resolution in peackeeping, that means recognition, If not, Russia can decide in peacekeeping,
Not a bullet fired – yet. That depends on what Ukraine does. Right now, they appear to be continuing shelling. That’s not going to work out for them. Putin already ordered them to stop. Next step is to smash them – or at least show them how easily they could be.
The consensus by The Saker and Martyanov is that was planned long ago to be implemented once it was clear that the West would not negotiate and Ukraine would not adhere to the Minsk Agreement.
I posted the opinion that Putin would not recognize the republics until he decided Minsk was dead. Apparently that day is today. So I should probably shut up now. Of course, I won’t.
This makes sense. But now he ‘s called their bluff -“the mother of all sanctions” n all that- we’ll see if NATO falls apart, i.e. if France and Germany demur or agree to austerity for their people during the middle of winter.
I need to listen to Mercouris’ video today to see what his ideas are. Next, we need to see if Ukraine stops the shelling. If they don’t, it’s likely Russia will push the contact line back out to the actual borders of the republics. If they do, Russia may leave the contact line where it is for now, until they get situated. Gonna be a busy week.
Absolutely incredible to see some of the so-called “anti-war” crowd cheerleading a far right imperialist puppet for oligarchs and his invasion of another country. Just complete moral bankruptcy on anyone who defends this.
The “anti-war” crowd didn’t put Putin in the position he is in. That would be our far-right imperialists for the MIC.
For clarification I consider both parties to be far right.
I’m not any more a fan of Putin than I am of Xi, Trudeau, Biden, Castro, the Myanmar junta, etc.
But this is clearly a “US/NATO/Ukraine decided to f*ck around, and now they’re finding out” situation.
Kiev could have fulfilled its obligations under the Minsk Protocols and chose not to.
NATO — or for that matter, any member state — could have made a clear statement that Ukraine would not become a member state, but chose not to.
Trump could have stayed in the INF, but chose to abrogate it and put medium-range missiles in eastern Europe.
And now the chickens are coming home to roost. It’s not a good thing, but it was an avoidable thing and the US/NATO/Ukraine made conscious decisions not to avoid it and to press their luck. Now everyone, especially the population of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (which are not “Ukraine,” but could have been if the Ukrainian regime hadn’t purposely kept them out for eight years) will be worse off for it.
Cannot agree more. Minsk was a sensible solution,
Except perhaps the fate of people in the region, Given the mess Ukraine economy is, the breakaway regions are not that bad.
There may be an uptick in violence, but civilians are already in the process of being evacuated,
The attempt at retaking the region by force was already baked into the cake — so violence avoidance seems unrealistic.
Republics were already being integrated into the Russian economy. That will just accelerate. Hopefully the Ukrainians will have a sense of self-preservation and not escalate any violence (although they do appear to have resumed shelling around Mariupol.) If they do, Russia will crush them and then the threat of violence against Donbass will be minimal, if not non-existent.
I was extremely surprised with this action. I thought option was between launching limited invasion in Ukraine or ramping up pressure elsewhere for the west so west forces Ukraine to accept Minsk. For this giant flat landmass that is Ukraine, on the border of Russia, to be not part of nato, Minsk was the only option and this in theory should free up Kiev to pursue nato membership, but it seems I was wrong and atleast on the surface Russia still saying Minsk isn’t dead so maybe the can re integrate and even ifcthst not possible Russia can always escalate and take more territory and make the same conditions that was there pre recognition by taking more territory that’s inhabited by ethnic Russians, this also means Russia will have troops directly facing off with Ukrainian troops so easy to set up conditions for war if Russia wants it.
Zelensky just said he wants a clear timeline for Ukraine to join NATO. He still doesn’t get it. As I always say, “That ain’t gonna happen.”
Joke from Twitter:
The West:
KOSOVO – yeah we did it!
DONBASS – oh my God he did it!
Twitter wars:
Susan Glasser @sbg1
In 22 years have seen Putin attack:
Chechnya
Georgia
Ukraine
Syria
And now Ukraine again.
My note: Say what? When did Russia “attack” Syria? They were invited in! Dumb statement.
Hyder Abbasi @HyderAbbasi
Replying to @sbg1
In 22 years have seen US attack:
Afghanistan
Iraq
Yemen
Libya
Somalia
Syria
Pakistan
Uganda
8 to 3 – US wins the aggression derby!
Hyder forgot Iraq “again”. Plus, acts of war(sanctions)makes that 8-3 score much better than it appears for the US.
There can be no joy among demoralized Ukrainian grunts on the Donbass contact line with the prospect of facing the Russian Army’s heavy combined arms return fire. Now is the perfect time for Russian psychological warfare units to powerfully incentivize Ukie grunts with leaflets advising them of their options. Their best option is to abandon their weapons and just start walking back home to live peacefully with their families. Their other option is to remain on the contact line and to expect that their families will never see them alive again.