On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was considering a request from the separatists in eastern Ukraine to recognize the two breakaway republics in the Donbas region, known as the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR).
Putin convened a meeting of Russia’s Security Council to discuss the issue and said he would make a decision today. “I have heard your opinions. A decision will be made today,” he said during the meeting, according to RT.
Some of Russia’s top officials argued in favor of the recognition, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. “I see no other way,” Lavrov said. “As for offering the West two or three days to come to its senses, it is a matter of taste, of course, but it will certainly not change its position.”
The separatists made the request for recognition amid a spike of violence in eastern Ukraine. On February 19th, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) recorded 591 ceasefire violations in the Donetsk region and 975 ceasefire violations in the Luhansk region.
Both sides blame the other for the recent escalations. As the US has been warning that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine, the separatists have been warning that Kyiv was planning an offensive in the Donbas.
The US continues to accuse Russia of plotting false flags in the region as a pretext to invade Ukraine. On the other side, Moscow and the separatists have said Ukraine and its Western backers are planning provocations to justify escalations in the Donbas.
Officials from Russia’s Southern Military District said Monday that they “eliminated” five “saboteurs” that entered Russian territory from Ukraine. The head of Russia’s FSB later said one Ukrainian was captured. For their part, Ukraine denied the allegations, dismissing it as fake news.
With so much conflicting information, it’s tough to know what’s happening on the ground in eastern Ukraine. If Putin chooses to recognize the DPR and LPR, it doesn’t necessarily mean war, but it would mean Moscow’s withdrawal from the Minsk agreements, which established the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.
Under the Minsk agreements, Ukraine agreed to cede autonomy to the DPR and LPR. Russia has grown frustrated that Kyiv hasn’t fulfilled its end of the agreement, but in recent weeks, Putin and other Russian officials have reaffirmed their commitment to the Minsk accords.
I believe nothing Jake Sullivan says or anyone else in the Biden administration.
I’m with you john. Not sure how either side sees how this will end for them. It’s all the result of the Hillary Clinton, Victoria Nuland coup in 1964.
I’m inclined to agree and I’ll further add, the entire situation concerns me…
It is teally not that complicated. The fog of war may confuse the facts — but the motivation and hype do not lie.
Thus, for years US discouraged Kyev from implementing Minsk. It was clear that Kyev had no intention implementing or even negotiating the terms. All efforts were placed in preparing to take the region by force.
First population was declared terrorists. Second, no obligations towards citizens fulfilled — no retirement payments, frozen bank accounts, no psyments for schools, hospitals, care for elderly or handicapped,
If these are YOUR citizens and YOUR territory., one cannot abandon responsibilities. But US — through Kyev made it clear — ethnic Russians are not wanted.
US had a lead role in ethnic cleansing of native Serbs from Croatia, and the same plsn was to be implemented here.
The fog of war — who did what to whom and when -/ is irrelaevant here. Ukraine, under US guidance, has made all the preparations to retake the region by force.
And the noises of Russian invasion have increased — so that the offensive on Donetsk can proceed unimpeded, while Russia is to be pinned outside Ukrainian territoory — under the threat of massive sanctions.
Europe payed lip service to Minsk — never seriously addressing Kyev’s violations and bad faith,
Twice already Biden gave green light, twice stopped.
First announced “date” was halted when Donetsk and Russia started evacuating civilians, It was clear that the evacuation was WELL PLANNED ahead of time, and just put in operation,
That meant that plan A — implement Croatian scenario was not going to work, and that the role of crazies on the front line needed to be reassessed.
Hence, hanndy dandy Macron and Scholtz were trotted out in Normandy sham, to talk more about Minsk,
Russia concuded this time PUBLICLY that Euroleans are not serious about Minsk. Russia raised Minsk Agrerment in UN Security Council just to have it drowned in the noise of Russian invasion.
Now thatt Duma representatives initiated th debate of declaring Donetsk independent, and that CSTO forces may be deployed — Plan B, quick, direct, attack on Donetsk looks like Ukraine will set itself up to South Ossetia scenario.
Thus second Biden wobble.
This time Macron is coming in to “give peace a chance”, or better buy some time for plan C.
But with NOBODY in the West or in Ukraine supports Minsk, and are having inly one option on the table — violence — Russia’s initiative to recignize independence has surprised MANY. Russia went out of its way to push for Minsk, that is Donetsk WITHIN Ukraine,
As there are NO takers, Donetsk, like South Ossetia and Abkhazia — can be recognized as independent by Russia, and CSTO can be deployed as peace keepers.
Things may be moving faster. Is Biden going to give green light to Ukraine to forestall the lolitical move?
What if Donbas forces push Ukrainian army? With years to prepare, Donbas is very likely ready for invasion. They have the advantage of good intelligence from within Ukrainian military, with good armaments and most likely Russian private militaries in their ranks.
Biden’s plan can work ONLY if he could make the conflict look like Russian invasion.
At this point anything can happen. But Biden’s invasion plan by Russia may not materialize.
We must ask ourselves how has the Minsk 1 & 2 dynamic changed The short answer is the recent rebellion in Kazakhstan & the attempted color revolution in Belarus. The west press is under Biden’s thumb as we saw with Michael Bloomberg being interstitched into the Defense Department. Legit domestic rebels don’t seize airports unless they have something & /or someone they are flying in. Recognizing LPR & DPR is a divorce from the past, its a miniCold War. Although France’s Russia/US poking for a meeting can’t be dismissed.