Ukraine’s security chief on Monday warned that Western powers should not force Kyiv to fulfill its obligations under the Minsk agreements, which were signed in 2014 and 2015 to establish a ceasefire in the eastern Donbas region.
Under the agreement, Ukraine is required to give autonomy to the breakaway Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbas region. Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said fulfilling the deal could mean the “destruction” of Ukraine.
“The fulfillment of the Minsk agreement means the country’s destruction,” he said. “When they were signed under the Russian gun barrel — and the German and the French watched — it was already clear for all rational people that it’s impossible to implement those documents.”
Germany and France brokered the talks between Ukraine and Russia that led to the signing of the Minsk agreements. Envoys from the four countries met for talks last week. Little was solved, but Ukraine and Russia agreed to uphold the Donbas ceasefire, and more talks will be held soon.
Danilov warned implementing the Minsk agreements could destabilize Ukraine due to internal opposition to the deal. “If the society doesn’t accept those agreements, it could lead to a very difficult internal situation and Russia counts on that,” he said.
In December, The Associated Press reported that the Biden administration was considering pressuring Ukraine to fulfill the Minsk agreements by granting the separatists autonomy. It’s likely the issue is being discussed between the US and Russia as they continue dialogue over Moscow’s security concerns.
Quite the reasoning there in Ukraine- fulfilling their promises would lead to civil war, so they need more NATO weapons to attack the breakaway districts against the peace deal… Civil war. That’s the only thing ensuring Russia will invade, Ukraine attacking first.
Chaos indeed. The Ukraine economy is already in perpetual teeter.
Ukraine’s security chief probably suspects Azov Battalion types and their foreign sponsors would sooner coup the elected government than fulfill any peace preconditions.
However, that would crash the economy. More oblasts would depart Kiev for their own economic survival.
Russia though, wouldn’t be counting on this. However, Neocon interests might see chaos as a last chance to force NATO intervention into Ukraine.
Once in, NATO would be trapped into fighting for Ukraine and directly confronting Russia.
While it’s possible the neocons might be trying to get NATO in – that was their original plan, after all – I think they know that isn’t going to happen. Although you’re correct, they’d love it if NATO did. What they want now is a Russian invasion, regardless of what happens to Ukraine and regardless of whether NATO gets involved. The Russian reaction is a win for them regardless.
Basically snubbing and ignoring Putin is the only victory they can pull out of this mess.
Maybe they’d like to station more missiles on the Russian border, but that takes money they don’t have too. The US is losing the pricey hypersonics race against China, and all Russia has to do is station missiles right back to take the fizz out.
This close to Midterms, Americans are obsessed for or against (but increasingly against) COVID-1984, and couldn’t care less about Ukraine. The Russian ‘threat’ is totally failing to unite Americans or the West.
Taiwan stokes sinophobia, but empty store shelves was not the expected outcome.
Priorities have to change to the more pragmatic, and hopefully will.
All of which is true, but again the neocons don’t think like that. They live in an alternate reality and somehow they manage to drag everyone else in there with them. Of course, it helps that the military-industrial complex and the banks that finance them help, too. The real problem, as Andrei Martyanov says repeatedly, is that with the US education system, the entire country is ignorant about what could happen if they keep down this road.
It would be nice for the priorities to change, but human history says that only happens when the SHTF first.
Its Deeper than the education system.
The Entertainment Industrial Complex is entirely predicated on conflict.
The most popular video games are war games, the future is war whether Star Trek or Star Wars, the past glorifies past wars, everything is war.
The only real competition to that are driving games, which are still highly competitive.
People know what they have to know and do what they know how to do.
Not so much a win if Russia goes in after many warnings WHEN the Russian enclave is attacked. Once in, NATO would B trapped into fighting for Ukraine & directly confronting Russia, plus fighting the well armed Western Russophile who have fought the Ukraine army to a standoff! No cake walk to be sure, under the Russian air protection and close proximity. Probably very risky & possible military disaster.
Which is why it’s likely NATO won’t go in. The NATO politicians don’t understand, but I suspect a number of NATO generals do that Russia has an overwhelming advantage. If so, it’s more of a win for the neocons. But again, as I mentioned, the neocons don’t understand and don’t care because they live in an alternate reality.
First, remember that AP report said Biden “might” pressure Ukraine to uphold Minsk. Not that it matters because the security chief is right. If Zelensky tries it, he’s out or dead. Not to mention that the CIA and the neocons aren’t going to allow it – which is why he’d end up dead even the nationalists didn’t jail or kill him.
Let us not forget, that this ENTIRE diplomatic mess has been created by the Obama Biden over reach when Hillary Clinton & Victoria Nuland overthrew the elected government, and installed (audio provided “I pick Yaz!) a U.S. puppet. If Biden is too ham handed in an attempt to rectify this very dangerous situatation, it is because he was & is involved in no small way in its creation. All the preps of that coup were run by the Obama Biden team. You can be sure that when the coup suceeded there was cheering in the white house until Putin pulled the rug & got Cromea.
This is the third Clinton administration. Clinton was the first president under the influence of Russophobes. Decisions made in Balkans were the undicators of things to come. And probably the first pattern of using disgruntled and vengeful Nazi sentiments in some European populations.
The key for understanding this strategy was Balkans. Many ethnic grouos supported Hitler not because they believed in his ideology, but because it gave them a chance for separatism, fixing real or imagined historic grievances, etc.
This sentiment simmered below the surface. West has throughout the Cold War used these in order to have built-in base of blind supporters.
Nazi collaboratirs, many war criminals in their own right — reunvented themselves as “fighters against communnism”, and given new respectability, even positions in internatiinal organizations or Western governments. They are reliably anti-Soviet, anti-Russian and anti-Serb, as those were the people that in their eyes were responsible for their national disasters.
This is the key to understanding Baltics and indirectly Poland. It is a key to understanding of how former Nazi collaborators and sympsthizers converted their “anti-communism” into cash and political gains during Cluntin administration.
With NATO expansion, those sentiments were tapped into, in Baltics, and throughout Eastern Europe.
In second Clinton administration, Obama administration — the same sentiment was tapped in Ukraine. But it was by far most ambitious — instead of Galicia, former Nazi stronghold, getting a country of their own — they got the entire Ukraine to experiment with. Destroying Russian language that nearly 80% of population speaks at home, using cultural revolution methodology, the minority set out to destroy the real
Ukrainian culture. .
Promoting Galicia, former Austro-Hungarian province, means today promiting its brand of nationalism and extreme Russophobia.
Clinton doctrine continued during Obama term under control of Hillary Clinton. Besides indulging in reckless Lybia adventure, Hillary’s massive credits include working with a pliant
Saudis to launch well orchestrated ISIS entrance on the world stage, followed by Maidan coup under Hillary’s protege, Victoria Newland — it was productive.
But the blowback followed. Russia took back Crimea, and 6 provinces rebelled against the coup — but only two were successful: Donetsk and Lughansk.
Third Clinton administration under Biden is facing now a global blowback.
Now, facing the systemic pressure from Russia and China, the recklessness has come home to roost.
For those who have not seen it and have two hours to spare, the movie from 2015 “Crimea-the way back home” is very instructive and also exciting about the leadup to the “annexing of Crimea” . It is free online and the commentary is by a journalist who interviews many of the participants and in the film interviews Pr Putin and gets his take on the whole series of events.
Methinks it might be wisest for Zelensky to vacate the palace in Kyiv rather than uphold the Minsk Accords. But I’d rather see Ukraine keep its commitments.