Despite the apparent impasse between the US and Russia last week during talks on Ukraine, the two powers are continuing a dialogue. The State Department said Tuesday that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet Russian Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva on Friday after a stop in Kyiv.
In Kyiv, Blinken will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday. The US has been hinting at increasing support for Kyiv through more military aid, but such a move would exacerbate tensions with Moscow.
Also on Tuesday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said he was seeking more talks with Moscow. A date isn’t set, but Stoltenberg said a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council could be held in the “near future.”
During talks last week, the US and NATO publicly rejected Russia’s call for a guarantee that Ukraine won’t join the Western military alliance. But both sides signaled they were prepared for more dialogue on the deployment of missiles and other arms control issues.
The Biden administration won’t give up on the narrative that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine even though Moscow has repeatedly denied the accusation. The White House said Tuesday that Russia could attack its neighbor at “any point,” but it’s not clear what that assessment is based on.
NATO-Russia talks are almost meaningless. It’s the US that drives NATO and it’s the US that has flatly rejected halting NATO expansion. I believe the official US response to the Russian proposals is due tomorrow. Russia has said they will decide what to do after reading the response. We can pretty much guess what the US response will be, which means there will be no further talks of any note.
Blinken talking to Lavrov is just a joke. It’s clear from Lavrov’s recent interview and press conference that he’s had enough of Blinken. My guess is Blinken will simply try to get Lavrov to agree to a summit with Zelensky and Putin. Lavrov will send him packing with nothing. Russia is not going to talk with Zelensky or listen to anything Zelensky has to say as long as Zelensky is not implementing the Minsk Package of Measures.
Sounds like a fair assessment Richard. I would hope for something better but it may be the best that can be done for now…
US public opinion isn’t in the mood. The Deep State’s carpet jingo isn’t hooking in. And very likely Europe is even less eager.
This could be the cave in, proclaiming victory by construing Russia as “caving in” to allowing the Minsk Agreement be implemented, …having previously scripted, schooled and secured Zelensky’s ‘statesman’-ly reaction.
The problem with that is Zelensky has to deal not just with the CIA and the neocons, but the hard line anti-Russia nationalists in his own country. We can say the CIA and the neocons run him, but it’s only partially true.
There are two problems here: 1) get the CIA and the neocons to do what’s correct – that alone ain’t gonna happen; and 2) get the Ukrainian hard liners to do what’s correct – that’s equally unlikely.
Which is why I keep waiting for the Pollyannas who think this is all going to turn out okay to show me the evidence that any of these people can be successfully forced to disengage.
As you point out Lavrov wanted nothing more of Blinken’s gangster offer; such that this ad hoc is, on the face of it, evidence of something.
Blinken & co. know that if Putin goes in he will rapidly and thoroughly de-militarize Ukraine, leaving them nothing but a police capability. Then he will withdraw as rapidly and spend much the greater part of the operation in processing prisoners. All which will serve an object lesson for Poland, the Baltics, Moldova, Georgia, ….
And only consider the optics -with the mighty NATO standing by watching its creation get emasculated.
Russia was expecting a response from the US on their treaty proposals this week.
Biden just said there will be no written response in his meeting with Lavrov on Friday.
So much for that meeting.
With a president who is weak and flailing, the US is a dangerous animal. I fear some stupid attempt by Biden to bask in the (momentary) glory of being a war time president.
That is a very scary thought…best-donna
Fascinating group dynamics. Will they really take away his retirement account?
probably russia should simply ignore uncle sam entirely and continue with building the Nord-Stream pipeline to germany
It is ready, but the weak Germans have let the USA stop its registration. Independence and sovereignty???Germany and the rest of NATO have none, only the USA.
Why would Lavrov waste more time talking with Boorish Blinken or Stultifyingberg who prefer to deal with little toad Zelensky and pretend Kiev can militarily defeat the war which Russia they are pushing for!? Lavrov and Ryabkov have made their position clear (after it was put in writing for the US∕NATO to read, but they obviously did not or could not) and now the “west” needs to reply with a real solution.
Lavrov, presumably in line with his government’s policy, is bending over backward to maintain engagement so that he can’t be accused of not doing so.
Yes, he’s made his government’s terms clear. And he has to keep them not just clear, but in the public eye.
As Andrei Martyanov says, quoting the Dune books “Convention:” “The forms must be obeyed.”
I suspect that several things are at play here:
1. Although the United States has blundered into a series of foreign policy disasters in recent years, nobody in the foreign policy establishment has suffered as a result of those blunders, neither personally nor professionally. The only people who have suffered were the people who called for restraint, even as the wars turned out worse than the most pessimistic naysayers predicted.
2. The foreign policy establishment may be living in a weird dreamland bubble, but even they are aware that America is an empire in decline. What that means is that America’s “unipolar moment” is fading fast, so if there are wars of aggression that they wish to start, now may be the last chance to start them with relative impunity. The difference this time is that, unlike Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, etc., Russia is an enemy that is actually capable of shooting back.
3. Much like in 1914, there is an overwhelming concern for Muh American Credibility. This is in part because as America declines, the last thing Washington can tolerate is for its vassals, satraps, proxies, cutouts, lackeys, hangers on, buttbois, puppets, etc. to start to get ideas.
Moreover, back in Washington, Team R and Team D alike are more interested in scoring points at the other team’s expense than they are in furthering national goals. Accusing the other team of cowardice or weakness is an easy way to score those points. The problem is that this means that aggression can ever always only be dialed up, never down.
4. As Biden continues to flail, a jolly little foreign war is just the thing to get the masses to rally ’round the flag one more time. What could possibly go wrong? This is also just like 1914.
very solid points FF, very solid. best-donna
Excellent analysis!
The Finster aims to please.
It is hard for me to believe that adults behave this way especially with such serious situations and yet, these people have the finger on the nuclear trigger?…