Despite the constant hype around a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley believes China has a “ways to go” when it comes to developing the capability to take the island.
“My assessment, in terms of capability, I think China has a ways to go to develop the actual, no-kidding capability to conduct military operations to seize through military means the entire island of Taiwan, if they wanted to do that,” Milley told the Senate Appropriations Committee on Thursday.
Milley said he doesn’t believe China will try to take Taiwan anytime soon. “I think there’s little intent right now or motivation to do it militarily. There’s no reason to do it militarily, and they know that. So, I think the probability is probably low, in the immediate, near-term future,” he said.
Also on Thursday, a State Department official touted the US and Taiwan’s “porcupine” strategy. The idea of the “porcupine” approach is to continue arming Taiwan, so the cost for China to take the island by force becomes greater and greater. This strategy bodes well for the US arms industry.
Taiwan recently signed contracts worth $1.75 billion for Lockhead Martin-made rocket system and a Boeing-made missile system. The weapons sale was approved by the Trump administration last October.
The government of Taiwan and US weapons makers fund many of the same think tanks in Washington. For example, the hawkish Center for a New American Security (CNAS) think tank gets funding from most of the US’s major arms makers as well as the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Washington.
The Pentagon recently finished a 100-day task force review of its China policy that was led by Ely Ratner, a former CNAS employee who was appointed as a special advisor to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, the former Raytheon employee. While most of the task force’s recommendations were kept classified, it’s safe to assume that it called to continue the tradition of arming Taiwan.
China could retake Taiwan today if decides that option.
China’s navy is already larger than US navy and it is all concentrated off the coast of China. The US Navy is spread all over the world.
There is no way the US could ever defeat the Chinese military even if 100% of the US military were already deployed to Taiwan before any invasion.
I have no idea what China is waiting for.
China has no need to seize the island, just to close the main airports and seaports to normal civilian traffic. That is relatively simple with their mass of missiles and ocean bottom mines easily placed in many ways at such short distances from China’s main forces.
For seven decades, the world has been told that an invasion of Taiwan is imminent. The American military-industrial-congressional complex needs threats to justify wartime budgets, and China provides one excuse. American warships and aircraft routinely operate just off China’s coast. If China complains, the world is warned that China is threatening military action. The good ole “China will soon invade Taiwan” tale is a perpetual favorite. In reality, China lacks the naval power to invade Taiwan and attempting to conquer this large island would prove bloody, devastate the Chinese economy, lead to domestic unrest, and may not succeed.
Disagree.
China has always declared Taiwan as part of China and stated Taiwan will one day reunify. One way or another.
China now has the military means to destroy almost the entire military infrastructure of the island beforehand and would then face little resistance to any invasion.
If it was absolutely necessary, China could land millions of men on the shores of Taiwan.
There is nothing the Us could do to prevent that.
And then the PLA would find out what it’s like to occupy a nation of 23 million people, many of whom object.
From Wikipedia
“At the beginning of the millennium, polls consistently found 30% to 40% of all residents in Taiwan opposed to unification through CCP’s “One country, two systems” formula even with more preferential treatments while the majority supported so-called “status quo now”[23][24] Public opinion on unification has not changed significantly since then. A majority of the population is supporting the status quo of mostly in order to avoid a military confrontation with PRC”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_unification
This means 60-70% DO NOT oppose reunification with China and few want a military confrontation.
So, the majority of Taiwan would support reunification to avoid war and it therefore would not be an “occupation”.