Poll: 80% of Palestinians, Israelis Say Attack on Iran Would Spark Regional War

About 70 percent of Israelis and Palestinians believe the chances of a Palestinian state in the next five years are low or nonexistent

by John Glaser, October 15, 2012

Around 80 percent of respondents in a survey of both Israelis and Palestinians say that an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities would ignite a major regional war.

The poll was a joint effort of the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University, and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.

In this case, public opinion in both Israel and Palestine falls in line with the general consensus in the US military and intelligence community. As a recent report by former government officials, national security experts and retired military officers concluded last month prompt large-scale Iranian retaliation that would spark an uncontrollable regional war.

The assessment is in line with previous estimates of the consequences of an attack. A declassified war simulation run by the Pentagon earlier this year forecasted such a “strike would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the United States” and would immediately get at least 200 Americans killed in Iran’s retaliation, not to mention heavy Iranian and Israeli casualties.

Iran would probably attack US troops in neighboring Afghanistan, the Navy’s Fifth Fleet in nearby Bahrain, and possibly other US assets in the Persian Gulf.

Up to 65 percent of Israelis in the poll said they were against US backing of an Israeli strike on Iran, an increase from 52 percent in June, while only 18 percent of Israelis said they supported an Israeli attack without US backing.

The poll also found that about 70 percent of Israelis and Palestinians believe the chances of establishing a Palestinian state in the next five years were low or nonexistent.

Additionally, 61 percent of Israelis and 52 percent of Palestinians said they support the two-state solution, which generally refers to territorial lines along the pre-1967 borders. Thirty-six percent of Israelis and 46 percent of Palestinians oppose such a settlement.

Last 5 posts by John Glaser