Hadi is heavily backed by the US government and is also the candidate of choice for the ruling party, which would have virtually assured his election even if there had been somebody running against him. In this case, however, there is not.

The Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) negotiated an agreement with the political opposition designed to end their participation in pro-democracy protests, giving them the prime ministership on the condition that they promise unanimously  to nominate Hadi, making this a one candidate race.

Hadi said his election will be a “message of hope” and voters will send a strong message that they reject “terrorism” by voting for him. He termed the single-candidate election a “noble task” for those running the election.

Though the election would appear to be a mere formality, Hadi also has a serious interest in getting out the vote to give his reign, the result of a backroom deal under intense US and Saudi pressure, at least some modicum of legitimacy. The Houthi secessionist movement in the far north has already vowed to boycott the election, as have the southern secessionists. With much of the pro-democracy movement also unimpressed by the deal, a low turnout could leave Hadi in an extremely weak position.

The fighting is a continuation of sectarian clashes from late last month in Hajjah between the Shi’ite Houthi movement and the mostly Salafist tribesmen of the area. The latest round of fighting was reportedly started by the Houthis, who attacked tribal-held territory in Kashar.

The fighting came in the wake of Saturday’s Mawlid an-Nabi festival, during which tens of thousands of additional Shi’ites flocked to the area and the Houthis reinforced their positions, expecting a fight. The exact cause of the fighting, which began Sunday, is still unclear.

But the Houthis have already announced that they are boycotting the single-candidate elections in Yemen, which are set to install US-backed Major General Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, and are setting up a “caretaker government” of their own in the northern provinces they control.

The Houthis have fought several secessionist conflicts against the Saleh regime, which is overwhelmingly supported by the Salafist factions, and Saudi Arabia is urging the Yemeni government to move against the Houthis once again, fearing the consequences of an independent Shi’a statelet on their southern border.

Preliminary reports indicate that one of the slain was a “wanted militant” named Abdel-Munem al-Fatahani, while local tribesmen said four of them were “al-Qaeda leaders” in the area. The targets were apparently affiliated with either the al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) or the Ansar al-Sharia. Reports termed everyone suspects.

The Ansar al-Sharia took over much of the Abyan Province in the middle of 2011. In turn, the Yemeni government responded by launching several offensives in an attempt to retake them. The offensives were extremely bloody, and while the Yemeni military eventually claimed to have taken “most” of the region back, control appears hotly contested.

AQAP confirmed the attack, but insisted that only three members of the group were actually killed, and two others wounded. They did not identify the rest of the dead, but tribal leaders from the area said they did not believe any civilians died in the strike.

One of the leaders of the pro-regime forces, a Salafi, claimed that 40 of the slain were Houthis and the other six were Salafists. He also said a large number of Salafist fighters were wounded in the clashes.

The Houthis claim they are winning the fights, which they described as ongoing. A Houthi leader accused Saudi Arabia of backing the Salafist faction, and vowed to “behead those mercenaries” who killed Houthis.

The Houthis are a Shi’ite faction that is the majority in the far north of Yemen, along the ill-defined border with Saudi Arabia. They have regularly clashed with both the Saudis and the Saleh government, and have achieved de facto independence since mass uprisings began elsewhere in Yemen.

The longtime U.S. ally has faced almost a year of protest against his rule, which was met with terrible violence from the security forces who ended up killing hundreds of peaceful activists. Tribal fighting put the country on the brink of civil war and the presence of al-Qaeda allowed Saleh to maintain support in money and weapons from the U.S.

But a deal proposed by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and backed by the U.S. granted Saleh immunity for the crimes he committed against the people while in office in exchange for stepping down from power and ushering in early parliamentary and presidential elections in February and the drafting of a constitution.

Until those elections, the skeptical protest movement is staying the course. The country still roils with mass protests against the system and continuing abuses, including a huge gathering on Monday to celebrate Saleh’s exit.

“The post-Saleh era has not started yet,” said political activist Habib al-Ariqi. “His family, his interest groups, those who benefited from him for years and years still hold the strings of power.”

U.S. officials have said that Saleh only plans to stay until the end of February.

The power-sharing deal for the interim period includes Saleh’s party as part of national unity government and many of the ministries run by the opposition include high ranking officials who are members of Saleh’s party. Saleh’s family and loyalist tribe still hold sway in government and the military.

Saleh’s son, Ahmed, for example, commands the powerful Special Forces and Republican Guard which have been deployed to the streets to attack and murder unarmed protesters. The other top internal security forces are under the command of the president’s nephews, Tareq, Yahia, and Ammar. The major fuel supplier National Oil is also run by Saleh’s in-laws.

Another concern is ongoing U.S. influence in Yemen. Long before the GCC deal was signed, the U.S. put its stock in Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi to replace Saleh as its puppet dictator of choice. Saleh has formally handed over power to him and it is quite possible that ongoing weapons deals and aid – over $120 million for fiscal year 2012 – from the U.S. will work to suppress democratic reform as it has for so many years.  Special forces and CIA operatives are almost certainly on the ground in Yemen, together with an ongoing drone program.

Vice President Abdurabu Hadi, the military strongman set to replace longstanding dictator and U.S. ally Ali Abdullah Saleh in early elections on February 21, issued a statement condemning the foreign minister’s comments and making assurances that any delay in the elections are unacceptable.

The Obama administration is watching developments in Yemen closely, having sided with Vice President Hadi months ago and confidently expecting him to win the elections. The U.S. is conducting an intermittent drone war in Yemen and is likely conducting extensive covert operations there and so support for the leadership, no matter how horrible, will continue.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addressed this cooperation this week. ”We remain focused on the threat posed by al Qaeda in Yemen, and we’ll continue to work with our partners there and elsewhere to ensure that al Qaeda does not gain a foothold in the Arabian Peninsula through actions that would undermine the stability of Yemen and the region,” she said.

Saleh has held onto his dictatorial power despite signing a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) initiative in November, which granted him amnesty in exchange for agreeing to step down after months of widespread protests and violence against his rule.

The deal was supported by the U.S., despite the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights declaring that granting amnesty  to those who perpetrated human rights abuses and possible war crimes would be against international law.Many saw the agreement as protecting a U.S.-supported tyrant from being held accountable for massive crimes against civilians.

This is surprising, as the Yemeni presidential election is a rubber stamp following a GCC deal which has led to the election being a single candidate vote with only Major General Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi running as a “unity candidate.”

Not that this is the problem the US has with the election. The Obama Administration has made it clear that Maj. Gen. Hadi is their military strongman of choice for months now, and the complaint is instead that the delay shows existing military strongman President Ali Abdullah Saleh is not stepping down fast enough.

Speaking in the Ivory Coast today, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lashed Saleh, saying the US regrets that he has “failed to comply with his own commitments to leave the country and permit elections to go forward that give the people a chance to be heard.” Heard, of course, in voting for the pro-US candidate.

About 250 militants stormed Radaa, according to reports on the ground, and the prisoners released were given weapons and joined the militants. At least three of the freed inmates are suspected members of al-Qaeda.

The capture by militants of Radaa is significant because, although they have largely had control over significant parts of the lawless south, Radaa is a mere 160 kilometres south of capital Sanaa and demonstrates the gains they’ve made in the face of a weak and contested Yemeni government. The seizure of Radaa makes an all out civil war much more of a reality.

The opposition accused Saleh and his security forces of allowing the militants to take Radaa in order to bolster his claims that he must remain in power to prevent Islamist militants from taking control of the country. This is a power play that those in Washington are highly susceptible to after years of arming and paying the Saleh regime under the rubric of “counterterrorism.”

“We hold the security and army forces of Saleh responsible for facilitating the access of the militants who are controlling now parts of the town. They did not show any resistance. It is one of the regime tricks,” Sheikh Mohammed Naser, a tribal leader of Radaa said.

Saleh has held onto his dictatorial power despite a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) initiative, signed by President Ali Abdullah Saleh in November, which granted him amnesty in exchange for agreeing to step down after months of widespread protests and violence against his rule.

The deal was supported by the U.S., despite the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights declaring that granting amnesty who perpetrated human rights abuses and possible war crimes, would be against international law.

If the accusations against Saleh are true, it shows the folly of Washington’s support for such regimes. He realizes being propped up by Washington will continue no matter how brutal and tyrannical his regime is, while keeping the militant situation in his political arsenal in case his support is in question.

The loss of the town marks a move further inland for AQAP, whose fighters have mostly been clustered around the southern coast recently contesting control over the Abyan Province.

And that control over Abyan seems to be more or less absolute at this point, with displaced Yemenis giving up on the idea that the Yemeni government is going to retake the area and simply returning home to see what life under the new “Emirate” of Ansar al-Sharia is like.

The Yemeni military contested Abyan for virtually the whole second half of 2011, with a number of US air strikes aimed at helping the military retake it. The clashes haven’t gone well for the Yemeni military however, with the AQAP forces seemingly having an advantage.

But perhaps even bigger violence threatens to flare up around the capital city, where the regime has issued a formal ultimatum to all rival factions to disarm and remove all troops from the area, warning that they will move against “violators.”

This in particular will be a non-starter for the tribal factions in the capital, which have been protecting a top sheikh that President Saleh was attempting to arrest. It is also doubtful that the large number of defector troops there to protect the civilian protesters will be convinced to leave.

The real question then is what, if anything, the Yemeni military attempts to do about these “rival forces” when they don’t leave. In the past the military has had very mixed results (at best) fighting against such forces, and probably couldn’t forcibly evict any significant portion of them from the capital city without massive casualties.