Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is facing considerable political flak for the loss of the town of Debaltseve to rebel fighters earlier this week, with hawks spinning it as a calamitous military defeat.
They’re also criticizing Germany and France for their ceasefire push, saying it shows they’re weakening the position of Ukraine in the ongoing civil war. Why would they do that?
Some analysts are presenting it as EU weakness compared to Russia, but the move may actually be EU pragmatism, compared to the never-ending war appetite of the Ukrainian far-right.
Debaltseve was valuable, but Ukraine’s military was losing it to the rebels. By the time the ceasefire was reached, the town was practically surrounded. If the ceasefire hadn’t started Saturday night, Debaltseve would’ve almost certainly fallen by now at any rate.
While hawks are rejecting the claims of an “orderly withdrawal” and putting President Poroshenko in a tough political position, the government’s willingness to leave the town has shored up the ceasefire in a big way.
There’ve been intermittent artillery firing reports elsewhere on the front line, with Mariupol and the rebel capital of Donetsk the main sites, but with Debaltseve no longer contested, the ceasefire is dramatically more stable.
Debaltseve is a loss to Ukraine’s war effort, but it’s a loss that was going to happen either in a war or in a ceasefire. At least losing it to save the ceasefire gives Poroshenko a chance to finally resolve the grievances of the ethnic Russian easterners before the war escalates any further. Recognizing that he can’t win the war, he may as well try to win the peace.
European pragmatism, to be sure. Ukrainian army was spared a much bigger debacle, and on many fronts. With the loss of Debeltsevo, the resistance fighters could have forged a wider push towards Kharkov, where a very restive, and numerous ethnic Russian population is chafing under Kiev rule. Merkel and Hollande insured that Kiev did not lose a much bigger region. Poroshenko is in hot water as there is no salvaging the government that has gone too far in their "terrorist" rhetoric. But now they can either support Minsk-2, or start evading implementation by constant claims of violations. In fact, in Minsk Poroshenko declared that they were not surrounded in the Debeltsovo pocket. The reason was transparent — keep on fighting and claim that the cease fire is dead. However, OSCE was pretty accurate in assessing the positions of forces — and eventually Ukrainian army had to leave the pocket. After they all withdraw to specified distance to insure that heavy weapons cannot reach civilians — the really hard job for Kiev starts. Regional autonomy, language issues, payments of pensions, restoring gas service, amnesty for resistance forces. That is where it will break — and Merkel an Hollande have a serious challenge ahead. Kiev is used to dictating terms — and have all the rhetorical advantages in claiming 'Russian aggression". Now, they need to deal with the rights of citizens, not just be concerned with how to kill them. It is not at all possible to predict how will they behave. And will they continue to behave with impunity — and will Merkel and Hollande let them.
“Cui bono” — Who benefits?
Jason is expressing an idealistic goal that should be the motivation for all that goes on, end the war and fire up the economy, which communicates the sentiments of Russia and the people of Ukraine to perfection.
But, not so the fascists who rule the war plundered lands, for to cannibalize all the wealth of Russia and to achieve record corporate profits in the doing of it, this is the grand scheme of things for the Western corporate rich that funded the fascist coup.
Most profound, those in control want everything blown up and out of control, so another day kicks on down.
First we're told that the Ukrainians are running away, then we're told that the Ukrainians don't want to retreat. In other words we're told whatever sounds "bad" for Ukraine at any particular moment. It will be very encouraging to Proshenko to hear that his soldiers want to fight and will help him obtain arms from the US when, and on past performance, it will be when, the mercenaries resume their attack. Don't forget that if Putin doesn't get all four railway provinces, he's defeated. Thus, all the Ukrainians have to do is hold at least one of the four.
> Don't forget that if Putin doesn't get all four railway provinces, he's defeated.
You may want to explain this kind of bizarre contention.